SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Whoa!

The 3-day X-ray flux shows a steady increase.
:3-day x-rays:

An enormous helmet streamer is emanating from the area around this new sunspot. It appears on the coronagraphs to be at least 3 solar diameters long and very fat. At some point we could see a massive CME if it lifts off.

STEREO A cor 2 movie:
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

SOHO C3 latest image:
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

SOHO C2 pic of fat helmet streamer-
:4/7-streamer:

SDO is also showing a pyramid-shaped equatorial coronal hole in the east.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Latest HMI intensitygram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I can't believe I just heard this song on the car radio. David Dye of World Cafe actually played the vinyl original. Unfortunately, the great YT version w/solar images has been taken down. Enjoy!



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Nothing major, but the Bz has gone South again.

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2016 Apr 07 2010 UTC
Valid To: 2016 Apr 08 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE Solar Wind plots:

[link to www.solarham.net]

Also GOES Electrons have reached Alert levels for the 4th straight day.

GOES Electron Flux:
[link to sol24.net]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2344
Issue Time: 2016 Apr 07 1505 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2343
Begin Time: 2016 Apr 04 1140 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2096 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Solarsoft/SDO time-compressed movie of several flares from new AR2529 when it was behind the limb.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

AR2529- BIG!
:AR2529:

[link to www.solarham.net]

Earthbound Solar Storms & Chance for Flares: Solar Storm Forecast 04-07-2016


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

:bertbook: :bertbook:
:bertbook: :bertbook:

April 7, 2016 @ 20:10 UTC
Aurora Watch / Bz South (UPDATED)
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been pointing south for a long duration and this is stirring up elevated geomagnetic activity on Thursday evening. A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm watch is now in effect. Sky watchers at higher latitudes should be alert for visible aurora once dark outside.

UPDATE @ 20:45 UTC: A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm is now in progress.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2016 Apr 07 2040 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

[link to solarham.net]

Howdy, Simple, yes indeed an aurora watch tonight.

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2016 Apr 07 2212 UTC
Valid To: 2016 Apr 08 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:
[link to sol24.net]

ACE SW:
[link to www.solarham.net]

Hi Hugh : )

:4/7-2529mag:

What a beauty!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nice shot of the star Hugh!

Polarity!

She's pretty big.. Do you think she'll stay strong, or dwindle when she's earth facing?

Awesome! It's a monster!

[link to www.solarham.net]

Probably dwindle, like they always do. Heh!

any science as to why?

I don't think so. But we have been trying to figure this out on this thread for years now.

Not a single theory?

allow me....cosmic intervention? Someone (or something) has this planet in their (its) best interest?

I wouldn't doubt that. Lol

Yep. That's a monster.

FLASHBACK (due to lack of activity)--

Published on Nov 4, 2014-

The surface of the sun from October 14th to 30th, 2014, showing sunspot AR 2192, the largest sunspot of the last two solar cycles (22 years). During this time sunspot AR 2192 produced six X-class and four M-class solar flares. The animation shows the sun in the ultraviolet 304 ångström wavelength, and plays at a rate of 52.5 minutes per second. It is composed of more than 17,000 images, 72 GB of data produced by the solar dynamics observatory ( [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] The animation has been rotated 180 degrees so that south is 'up'. The audio is the "heartbeat" of the sun, processed from SOHO HMI data by Alexander G. Kosovichev. Image processing and animation by James Tyrwhitt-Drake.



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Barely a C-flare today from 2529. Sol has only 3 or 4 spots on the entire star (front & back), so AR2529 is our best hope for any action in the foreseeable future. It will either grow, morph, or decay over the next 12 days. Whatever NOAA predicts, I predict the opposite....just out of obstinate defiance, haha.

NOAA predicts a 10% chance of M-flare and 1% for an X-flare. I'll predict a 60% chance of an M and 10% for an X. Even if I'm right, I predict 100% chance of NOAA chimps making more money than me...LOL.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 100 Issued at 0030Z on 09 Apr 2016
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 08 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2528 N07W64 114 0010 Bxo 05 02 Beta
2529 N10E66 344 0350 Dhi 10 05 Beta

Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was low and a C1 flare from Region 2529 (N10E66,
Dhi/beta) at 08/1638 UTC was the largest event of the period. Multiple
filament eruptions were observed throughout the period but no
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with C-class flares over the next
three days (09-11 Apr) due to the flare potential of Region 2529.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO 171a image:
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

AR2529-
:4/8-AR2529:
:4/8-ar2529_HMIBC:

Suspicious 0bserver always refers to it as "earth facing calm". I've been meaning to see what his theory is. Try that for starters.

Last Edited by Isis One on 04/08/2016 10:32 PM

Wowee, a 3-hour long C-flare peaking near C3.

[link to sol24.net]

GONG H-alpha movie:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Percolatin' C-Flares
:4/9-C-flare:

April 9, 2016 @ 13:00 UTC
Sleeping Giant
Region 2529 is now in view and is indeed a large sunspot. In fact, the leader spot is larger than our planet Earth. The region however is not magnetically complex (Beta Magnetic) and is unlikely to produce a major solar flare, at least in the short term. More updates in the days ahead if necessary. Imagery below by SDO/HMI.
[link to www.solarham.net]
[link to www.solarham.net]


ISLAND OF MAGNETISM: A large sunspot is turning toward Earth. NOAA designated the planet-sized blemish "AR2529" after it emerged into view on April 7th. "Earlier today, a break in the clouds provided a tantalizing glimpse of AR2529 marching across the solar surface," says astrophotographer Dennis Simmons, who sends this picture from Brisbane, Qld, Australia: [link to spaceweather.com]

Sunspots are, essentially, islands of magnetism floating in a sea of solar plasma. The island of AR2529 is as wide as Earth itself. With a primary dark core that measure more than 20,000 km in diameter, AR2529 is an easy target for backyard solar telescopes.

Magnetic fields arching above a sunspot can become tangled. They criss-cross and reconnect, exploding with the force of millions of atomic bombs. However, such a "solar flare" is unlikely in this case because the magnetic field of sunspot AR2529 is not tangled; it is stable and poses little threat for strong explosions. Solar activity is expected to remain low this weekend.
[link to spaceweather.com]


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

NASA Scientists Still Perplexed By Earth's Wobble....newest theory blames the rain, or lack of it, in the Indian subcontinent.

A Sharp Turn to the East

Around the year 2000, Earth's spin axis took an abrupt turn toward the east and is now drifting almost twice as fast as before, at a rate of almost 7 inches (17 centimeters) a year. "It's no longer moving toward Hudson Bay, but instead toward the British Isles," said Adhikari. "That's a massive swing." Adhikari and Ivins set out to explain this unexpected change.

(snip)

One particular wobble in Earth's rotation has perplexed scientists since observations began in 1899. Every six to 14 years, the spin axis wobbles about 20 to 60 inches (0.5 to 1.5 meters) either east or west of its general direction of drift. "Despite tremendous theoretical and modeling efforts, no plausible mechanism has been put forward that could explain this enigmatic oscillation," Adhikari said.

full story here:
[link to www.jpl.nasa.gov]

Hello, Agent 27

I forgot mention last night that SWPC's size given for AR2529 at 350 millionths was grossly underestimated. My suspicions are confirmed by Jan Alvestad,s SOLEN.info. SOLEN notes the area is 780 Millionths, more than double what NOAA reports.

SOLEN.info (scroll down for Regions):
[link to www.solen.info]

The region's magnetic fields are still morphing, which is probably why we've had 5 or 6 C-flares today.
:4/9-2529mag:

I thought it was strange that they were so quick to say it wouldn't produce a strong flare...

Honestly, I trust your judgement more, Hugh!