SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

There seems to be some disagreement concerning CME arrival forecasts between NOAA and NASA. NOAA has pushed back the anticipated arrival time to late on 1/22 or early 1/23. According to Spaceweather.com, NASA Goddard is still projecting arrival at Earth for 1/21 @22:30 UTC. Even with a 7-hour margin of error they don't quite match up.
NOAA Enlil CME mdl:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA forecast:

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA cygnet streamer:
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

From spaceweather.com:

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

This is why I love solar-watching. There's so much uncertainty and disagreement among scientists and forecasters. NASA can predict where a tiny asteroid will be with amazing accuracy years in advance....but somethoing as large as a CME or solar activity in general defies all of their "inside-the-box" thinking.

Hey Guys!

Here is NASAs prediction list for the arrival and duration of this multiple wave CME released with the LDE today.



Event Issue Date: 2012-01-19 17:46:28.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-01-21 22:29:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.3 Re


Sat, 21 Jan 2012 22:29:04 UTC
Sun, 22 Jan 2012 10:29:04 UTC






Event Issue Date: 2012-01-20 01:01:56.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-01-22 00:52:12.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 9 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.0 Re


Sun, 22 Jan 2012 00:52:12 UTC
Sun, 22 Jan 2012 09:52:12 UTC








Event Issue Date: 2012-01-20 00:20:44.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-01-22 02:19:19.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 16 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.5 Re


Sun, 22 Jan 2012 02:19:19 UTC
Sun, 22 Jan 2012 18:19:19 UTC

NOAA couldn't find it's ass with eight hands. Stick with NASA and the times that they set. The first wave of this complex CME has already begun just as forecast, and just as I posted here on the 19th the day of the CME.

+1
we had also reported earlier today on the arrival of the CME
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

it is not a solid round ball rolling through space
there are many sections to a CME as it arrives and the way it effects earth as it arrives
right now what everyone is seeing on the nict is an effect of the solar winds on the magnetopause
as the winds roll over the top and back into earth
i will ask tom to post the video for this
the solar winds that are here right now are from the forefront of the expected CME
the fluffy stuff, if you will
we see this often with bigger CME's
whe the nict looks like it does now, keep watch, cause its about to show a CME
this one is just taking a big longer than they usually do after you start to see the forefront effects

Back again :D

i mean southern orange :D