SOLAR WATCH * 251 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

The real question is whether 1654 will follow the many, many other sunspots and start to decay as it gets closer to facing us?

It's almost as if all the energy is being sucked in on the eastern edge to build and release the energy as it rotates around the far side with little left once it gets to our side.

So far it is showing signs of growth. Hopefully it stays like that and won't decay.

Good morning all.

From reading the link below (if I've interpreted it correctly) a sunspot needs a strong magnetic field to remain active; therefore I wonder if, for some reason, the earth facing sunspots are losing polarity due to a breakdown of the sun's magnetic field on the earth facing side. If earth's magnetic connection with the sun is becoming weak, maybe this could be causing the decay?? I would be grateful if anyone could either confirm or deny this as my knowledge is limited to say the least! Apologies if this is a ridiculous question!

[link to physics.gmu.edu]

Ah, LOVE that avatar!

I'd subscribe to that notion except there are other planets in the solar system, much bigger and more influential than Earth. Can't imagine our planet would be so special as to be causative to the sun.

That makes sense, thankyou.

A very active 1654, especially from the DELTA region

[link to helioviewer.org]

Good morning all.

Doesn't earth have the strongest magnetic field of the planets though? The gas giants have a strong, but different type of magnetic field. Please correct me if this is wrong.

x-ray is rising... [link to www.n3kl.org]

Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus have stronger fields, but we are talking about weakened fields from Earth as we are experiencing now. All that I have read indicates that a weakened magnetic field on Earth only makes us more susceptible to to cosmic weather rather than influence.

I certainly don't know it all, especially what is causing Solar Regions to go quite while Earth facing, but from what I've read and have come to understand, earth is a spec in comparison to the sun, and it's influence over the Sun would be nominal at best.

BTW. No one is ever wrong, especially when they are asking themselves questions like you are to find the truth. As suntards we are all looking for answers

Last Edited by TS66 on 01/10/2013 09:50 AM

Thanks TS, I'm grateful for your knowledge

"A new report issued by the National Research Council (NRC), "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate," lays out some of the surprisingly complex ways that solar activity can make itself felt on our planet."

"Much has been made of the probable connection between the Maunder Minimum, a 70-year deficit of sunspots in the late 17th-early 18th century, and the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America were subjected to bitterly cold winters. The mechanism for that regional cooling could have been a drop in the sun%u2019s EUV output; this is, however, speculative."
[link to science.nasa.gov]

:1654magneto:

That is a Delta, as long as it does not decay like all the rest we will see an X from this guy.

Interestingly enough, this from that same article: "Raymond Bradley of UMass, who has studied historical records of solar activity imprinted by radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores, says that regional rainfall seems to be more affected than temperature. 'If there is indeed a solar effect on climate, it is manifested by changes in general circulation rather than in a direct temperature signal.' This fits in with the conclusion of the IPCC and previous NRC reports that solar variability is NOT the cause of global warming over the last 50 years."

"The solar cycle signals are so strong in the Pacific, that Meehl and colleagues have begun to wonder if something in the Pacific climate system is acting to amplify them. "One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system ... is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific." Using supercomputer models of climate, they show that not only "top-down" but also "bottom-up" mechanisms involving atmosphere-ocean interactions are required to amplify solar forcing at the surface of the Pacific." [link to science.nasa.gov]

Thought that yesterday, the question being why is it classified as beta?

Fear perhaps? Honestly though when I go to put up pics like this on fb, 90% of my friends and family will be like "is that a spot on mars" or something along those lines.

sigh

Trying ...

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Just another "C" I guess. So continues the quiet period from the sun.

She's just warming up.

Doubt it.

Now what's going on here ???????

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:11013:

There's got to be something wrong with the satellite?? wouldn't you think.

Coordinated drops and spikes from temp, speed, and density ???

Bz wide open a couple of hours ago ??

Last Edited by TS66 on 01/10/2013 12:16 PM

Well, 1654 is at the -60 mark and looks like to me it is decaying. Zoom way in and compare to above pics. Still looks Delta to me. Maybe it is just the pic below and looks washed out, but yesterday it was just more dense and large looking.
[link to www.solarham.net]

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest
events of the period were several C2 solar flares from Region 1654
(N08E46). These solar flares were difficult to discern due the elevated
background x-ray flux levels currently being measured by the GOES 15
spacecraft. Since Region 1654 has rotated onto the visible disk,
background x-ray flux has increased from low B-class to low C-class
levels. 10cm radio flux levels have also increased from around 140 sfu
to almost 170 sfu with the arrival of Region 1654. Region 1654 is
currently classified as an Eki Beta group and is the largest region on
the disk. SDO magnetogram and intensitygram imagery suggest magnetic
complexity emerging in the intermediate spots of this region but more
data is needed to be able to ascertain the severity of these changes
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Region 1652 (N20E11) is
currently magnetically classified as a Beta-Gamma-Delta group which is
the most magnetically complex region on the visible disk.

I guess there are two possibilities right now -

1) 1654 is starting to decay (as one poster has suggested above)

2) 1654 in it's process to become more magnetically complex, appears to be decaying but is a false sense of security.

Only time will tell - hopefully we have a better idea in the next few days.

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

have a rise
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]