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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 05:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Fast business
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


It looks like the magnetosphere was caught offguard, too. Look at the graphs!

GOES Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Strong Density readings at ACE (2-Hour plot):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

REal-time Bowshock Model:

[link to pixie.spasci.com]

Solar Wind-Mag-Field model:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

gasp
uh oh
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 05:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 05:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Fast business
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


It looks like the magnetosphere was caught offguard, too. Look at the graphs!

GOES Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Strong Density readings at ACE (2-Hour plot):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

REal-time Bowshock Model:

[link to pixie.spasci.com]

Solar Wind-Mag-Field model:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

gasp
uh oh
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17754867


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
wing kp predicition way off
cruise
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 05:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:cme1008:

:2cme1008:

[link to helio.gmu.edu]
zacksavage
~~Unbound~~

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10/08/2013 05:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
shocked






Z
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
WatcherJ

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10/08/2013 05:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:cme1008:

:2cme1008:

[link to helio.gmu.edu]
 Quoting: Dettro


So Dettro are you saying thats a new one and not the one that is hitting tomorrow?
optimum judgment

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10/08/2013 06:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:cme1008:

:2cme1008:

[link to helio.gmu.edu]
 Quoting: Dettro


coooooh nice
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 06:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:cme1008:

:2cme1008:

[link to helio.gmu.edu]
 Quoting: Dettro


So Dettro are you saying thats a new one and not the one that is hitting tomorrow?
 Quoting: WatcherJ


This CME , that i just posted happened about 12 hours ago

before this last one that just happen.

I'm still going to through the last few pages of this page

Sorry if i confused anyone.

cheers
M1.618

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10/08/2013 06:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:cme1008:

:2cme1008:

[link to helio.gmu.edu]
 Quoting: Dettro


So Dettro are you saying thats a new one and not the one that is hitting tomorrow?
 Quoting: WatcherJ


This CME , that i just posted happened about 12 hours ago

before this last one that just happen.

I'm still going to through the last few pages of this page

Sorry if i confused anyone.

cheers
 Quoting: Dettro


Data from everywhere seems to be late & inconsistent...
wmMmw
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2013 06:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2020 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 08 2050 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 08 1942 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales


been out what has happened this in my email
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Wow! Thanks for your vigilance GFG! This seems way too early to be from that filament eruption. This is about 24-hours early for NOAA's 'faster' arrival; and almost 48 hours early for the 'slower' NASA prediction!!

Two possibilities off the top of my head are 1) We all missed something (ie, a different event), or 2) The velocity was grossly underestimated! Without the benefit of the STEREO images of that CME it's a crap-shoot to tell the speed of a dead-on Earth-directed CME from the SOHO pics alone.

If you ever watched a baseball game, it's pretty easy to spot a change-up or a fastball from the dugout POV, but it's very difficult from the batter's POV (ie, comin' right at ya). Even the supercomputers need to triangulate data to accurately assess the velocity.

Conclusion-NASA strikes out on a fastball up and in.

200 km/sec increase in Solar Wind speed is not a weak of glancing blow...

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
arnoldSolarDoom!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


3 things I really watch, SUN, EQ and Weather cause God is in control not NASA
 Quoting: Goofy for God


I can't argue with the trurh....Peace.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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10/08/2013 06:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2020 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 08 2050 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 08 1942 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales


been out what has happened this in my email
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Wow! Thanks for your vigilance GFG! This seems way too early to be from that filament eruption. This is about 24-hours early for NOAA's 'faster' arrival; and almost 48 hours early for the 'slower' NASA prediction!!

Two possibilities off the top of my head are 1) We all missed something (ie, a different event), or 2) The velocity was grossly underestimated! Without the benefit of the STEREO images of that CME it's a crap-shoot to tell the speed of a dead-on Earth-directed CME from the SOHO pics alone.

If you ever watched a baseball game, it's pretty easy to spot a change-up or a fastball from the dugout POV, but it's very difficult from the batter's POV (ie, comin' right at ya). Even the supercomputers need to triangulate data to accurately assess the velocity.

Conclusion-NASA strikes out on a fastball up and in.

200 km/sec increase in Solar Wind speed is not a weak of glancing blow...

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
arnoldSolarDoom!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


3 things I really watch, SUN, EQ and Weather cause God is in control not NASA
 Quoting: Goofy for God


I can't argue with the trurh....Peace.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


This.
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2013 07:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:cme1008:

:2cme1008:

[link to helio.gmu.edu]
 Quoting: Dettro


So Dettro are you saying thats a new one and not the one that is hitting tomorrow?
 Quoting: WatcherJ


This CME , that i just posted happened about 12 hours ago

before this last one that just happen.

I'm still going to through the last few pages of this page

Sorry if i confused anyone.

cheers
 Quoting: Dettro


Thanks, Dettro, that was from the huge prominence eruption earlier today. (not Earth-directed). Got this link from spaceweather.com to an SDO 304 gif movie of the liftoff....very impressive.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

The CME that's hitting now had precious-few images to find. Sol likes to erupt just as the coronagraphs go on hiatus....it's just one of the things which are driving me crazy, LOL.

Just for the Department of Redundancy Department, here's the NASA CME prognostication-
Event Issue Date: 2013-10-06 17:28:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-10-09 18:42:27.0 GMT

Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 29 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.8 Re
madajs.

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10/08/2013 07:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 233
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 08 2258 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2257 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 09 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
 Quoting: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Potential G2 action, neato popcorn
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
shadasonic

User ID: 41520215
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10/08/2013 07:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 233
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 08 2258 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2257 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 09 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
 Quoting: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Potential G2 action, neato popcorn
 Quoting: madajs.


I like sneaky G2 storms.lol
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
joinca

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10/08/2013 07:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Was this the one?
CME0029 - 08-Oct-2013 20:54 peaks at 2000 Km/s
[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Movie is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
JPG is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
CMEs detected by Cactus: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2013 07:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 233
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 08 2258 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2257 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 09 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
 Quoting: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Potential G2 action, neato popcorn
 Quoting: madajs.


I like sneaky G2 storms.lol
 Quoting: shadasonic


Me too.

popcornpump2
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2013 07:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Was this the one?
CME0029 - 08-Oct-2013 20:54 peaks at 2000 Km/s
[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Movie is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
JPG is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
CMEs detected by Cactus: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: joinca


Howdy, Joinca hi the incoming plasma is from a mid-disk filament eruption on the 6th. STEREO missed it and so did the CACTus computers. I said at the time that this was 'well-aimed at Earth' but I had no way of even guessing the strength or velocity without all of the images. Evidently well-aimed CMEs tend to get here quicker and escape detection by CACTus. You can see a halo CME in this CACTus movie, but CACTus recorded no halo CMEs on that date.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

This is why vigilant Solar-Watchers are even better than the space agencies supercomputers like CACTus, Solarsoft. Thanks to GONG and SDO we can see events develop from their initial eruptions.

Well-Aimed at Earth-
sun-earth-cme
shadasonic

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10/08/2013 07:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Was this the one?
CME0029 - 08-Oct-2013 20:54 peaks at 2000 Km/s
[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Movie is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
JPG is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
CMEs detected by Cactus: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: joinca


Howdy, Joinca hi the incoming plasma is from a mid-disk filament eruption on the 6th. STEREO missed it and so did the CACTus computers. I said at the time that this was 'well-aimed at Earth' but I had no way of even guessing the strength or velocity without all of the images. Evidently well-aimed CMEs tend to get here quicker and escape detection by CACTus. You can see a halo CME in this CACTus movie, but CACTus recorded no halo CMEs on that date.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

This is why vigilant Solar-Watchers are even better than the space agencies supercomputers like CACTus, Solarsoft. Thanks to GONG and SDO we can see events develop from their initial eruptions.

Well-Aimed at Earth-
sun-earth-cme
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Very Nice!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
joinca

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10/08/2013 08:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Was this the one?
CME0029 - 08-Oct-2013 20:54 peaks at 2000 Km/s
[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Movie is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
JPG is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
CMEs detected by Cactus: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: joinca


Howdy, Joinca hi the incoming plasma is from a mid-disk filament eruption on the 6th. STEREO missed it and so did the CACTus computers. I said at the time that this was 'well-aimed at Earth' but I had no way of even guessing the strength or velocity without all of the images. Evidently well-aimed CMEs tend to get here quicker and escape detection by CACTus. You can see a halo CME in this CACTus movie, but CACTus recorded no halo CMEs on that date.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

This is why vigilant Solar-Watchers are even better than the space agencies supercomputers like CACTus, Solarsoft. Thanks to GONG and SDO we can see events develop from their initial eruptions.

Well-Aimed at Earth-
sun-earth-cme
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Thanks Hugh. As always the sun crew rocks!!!
applause2
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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10/08/2013 08:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hopefully it doesn't reach G5 since my cloud cover here.
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2013 08:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Before this unexpected storm hit I was preparing to alert the reader to the fabulous configuration of Venus and the crescent Moon (...and also Mercury and Saturn if you have a good vantage of the western horizon). It was absolutely breathtaking last night and now again this evening in twilight. I had the added bonus of working a graveyard shift last night/this morning and so I also got to see Jupiter and Mars in the east at 5AM! With good eyesight (or binos) , clear skies, and a freedom-from-light-pollution, you can see the beautiful crescent Moon and all five inner planets (six if you look down at your feet!). I dare the government to shut that down, haha.

[link to www.skyandtelescope.com]

Special Note to GeoStorm- check out the triple-transit shadows of Jupiter's Moons on the 11th...might be a nice photo-op.:)
sounds

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10/08/2013 08:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Sol crew, I have neglected my suntard duties in the past weeks not though wanting,
it seems my road less travelled has become an express way of events.

Love & light all.

Sunspot AR 1857 09 10 2013
[link to i1245.photobucket.com]
Sunspots 1161 & unnumbered new spots 09 10 2013
[link to i1245.photobucket.com]
Unnumbered new sunspots 09 10 2013
[link to i1245.photobucket.com]
The Sun 09 10 2013
[link to i1245.photobucket.com]

peace
Political correctness without wisdom ,is just Political nonsense.
joinca

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10/08/2013 08:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
In the estimated Kp7+ range???????
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
hiding
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
shadasonic

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10/08/2013 09:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
In the estimated Kp7+ range???????
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
hiding
 Quoting: joinca


Wasn't expecting that
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
El Quisqueyano

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10/08/2013 09:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We got a climber!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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Russian Federation
10/08/2013 09:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C5.2
Anonymous Coward
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Russian Federation
10/08/2013 09:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C6.2 and rising?
Anonymous Coward
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Russian Federation
10/08/2013 09:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C8.3
OVRANALYZE

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10/08/2013 09:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
m 1.0
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Reached M..
M1.0

Still rising.

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