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Nice aether,





new solarwatch



SolarWatch--M Flares;ChannelEruption;CME--12/26/11



[link to www.youtube.com]


also Kevin reports on it(Solarham)...:


A long duration C5.7 Solar Flare was detected around Sunspot 1384 this morning (Dec 26) and may have been the result of a filament channel eruption. An explosion resulted and may also be somewhat Earth directed. Watch the video below.



[link to www.youtube.com]

So happy to see you again Nin !!!

May your New Year bring you many blessings.

Latest CME, Earth directed ..

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

yep, nice rainman this was caused by the latest c5 flare region 1384

2011/12/26 11:23:00 12:18:00 11:48:00 C5.7 N20W01 ( 1384 )

[link to www.lmsal.com]


:dec26longduratio:
Long duration C 5 Flare



and the channel eruption:

:channeleruptiond:
Enlarge:
SDO AIA 94 composite...

IMAGE ( [link to i1220.photobucket.com] )



SDO AIA 304
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]

SDO AIA 94 compoaite...

IMAGE ( [link to i1220.photobucket.com] )



latest stereo a movie:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

ISWA CME Arrival Time Prediction shows it up now:


Event Issue Date: 2011-12-26 15:15:27.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-12-28 20:22:02.0 GMT

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Click on cme arrival time prediction to the left...

RUSSIAN MAN OK AS SATELLITE CRASHES THROUGH ROOF-

This crash marks the fifth failed space mission for Russia in 2011 so far

A Siberian man had a piece of a Russian satellite crash through his home after a system failure sent both the communication satellite and its rocket plummeting back to the Earth's surface.

Andrei Krivorukov, the homeowner, went out to his yard minutes before the crash to gather firewood. A fragment of a Meridian satellite then crashed through his roof while he remained outside unharmed.

[link to www.dailytech.com]

Thanks for the vids, IWTB!
Wow, it's looking like a traffic jam of solar energetic particle ready to invade geo-space. I forget where I read it, but multiple CMEs produce particle collisions which intensify the geo-magnetic effects; so we may be in for a nice auroral display this week.

I'm puzzled as to the cause of this unusual 2-channel flare. That was huge-I'd guesstimate as big as 10 Earths! I didn't see any filaments near that area. Anyway, it seems the sun has finally got Earth in its sights; this CME was right at the central meridian and should be a dead-on hit to our magnetosphere.

GONG network movie:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

SDO close-up movie:
[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
:2channel:

The channel flare was the result of the long duration C5 flare from region 1384


yep, there is a filament near to 1384 or the channel eruption..a bit to the west but it looks stable for now


post it again...:

ISWA CME Arrival Time Prediction shows it up now:


Event Issue Date: 2011-12-26 15:15:27.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-12-28 20:22:02.0 GMT

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Click on cme arrival time prediction to the left...



So we have the influence of the coronal hole as we know and this will cause some unsettled and active intervals on December 29-31, the partially Earth directed CME from the latest M Flare Region 1387 and the new CME from the channel eruption...this will be int




EDIT:

newer closeup Channel Eruption with Helioviewer
[link to helioviewer.org]

I checked the latest helioviewer sdo aia 304....if u look to the north west...at the end wee see a pretty lift off




[link to helioviewer.org]


:LIFTOFFNORTHWEST:
Enlarge:
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]

Not to be argumentative, but I believe the C5 LDE was the result of the channel eruption not the cause.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Yesterday we also had two CMEs (1 large, 1 small) from filament eruptions in the north which preceded the M-flares (though actually the CME was produced by the LDE C7.7 flare). So we have quite a bit of plasma heading our way along with the increased solar wind from the large coronal hole. Maybe the makings of a solar "perfect storm"? Some of the approaching plasma is visible on the STEREO HI 1 images (note:the bright object is Jupiter far in the background).

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

If 1384 wakes up and unleashes an M or an X-flare we could have the makings of a Carrington-type super-storm. As it stands now, we may see some satellites compromised by an onslaught of energetic solar particles. This could get very interesting.

Maybe it's just me, but does anyone see a sinister smiley-face in this SDO pic of regions 1387, 1380, & 1385???
:sinisterface:

believe what you want hughi....


The long duration flare was by 100percent the cause of the channeleruption


Im on this for years and spent much time on this..not only a hour in the evening


at least it was nibidibiduh
:nancyNibiru:

The NOAA Enlil CME prediction model shows a more direct hit on Earth than the NASA streamer model. Looks like an aurora show is on for Wednesday evening in US, Canada, and S. America.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Of course only one CME is seen in the model--I believe the other factors we've already noted will intensify the effects.

u must be the brother from this so called dr...dr doomstrong




dont forget this is SolarWatch and not a childhood



The IswaCygnetStreamer has updated
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

The IswaCygnetStreamer has updated
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]



also the CME ARRIVAL TIME PREDICTON is updated now:


:iswaalertdec26:
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
(click on the the left button)





Latest Heliovierwer FullDisc SDO AIA 304:
(watch also the prominence northeast and southwest; and the lift off northwest)
[link to helioviewer.org]

oh shit!

Don' t look now...but here comes another one!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
passed M and NOT SLOWING

mhh,


M 2.0
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

M 1.8

sorry, M 2 class
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

rising again
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Okay comes from Region 1387

Uploaded it:
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]

Or have a look here:
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

wow look at that one

M2.3

Hi nin

kevin reports now a bit later^^

A Solar Flare reaching M2.0+ is currently In Progress around Sunspot 1387 at 20:27 UTC Monday afternoon. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.

[link to www.solarham.com]

LMSAL says 1380 but lets wait a bit^^



2011/12/26 20:12:00 20:19:00 20:15:00 M2.0 S20W43 ( 1380 )
[link to www.lmsal.com]

CACTus CME model from 1st CME from filament eruption(s) early on the 25th:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

SEEDS CME analysis of the same Type II Halo event:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

CACTus CME model from 2nd CME from yesterday's C7.7 LDE from 1387:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

There was a lot of data gaps in the STEREO A and SOHO images; however STEREO B caught both Earth-directed CMEs from 12/25/11.

SEEDS STEREO B movie:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Waiting for SOHO to get caught up with today's events. They're about 10 hours behind at the moment Will update later.

2011/12/26 20:12:00 20:19:00 20:15:00 M2.0 S20W43 ( 1380 )


[link to www.lmsal.com]


:m2flaredec26:

:latestflare2dec2:


but lets us wait a bit....


latest SDO Image...woohoo


:sdoflarecomposit:
Enlarge:
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]

its also at the end of the latest Helioviewer SDO AIA 131:
[link to helioviewer.org]