SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

We saw auroras from a weak cme in texas last month

[link to www.chemcases.com]

Notice that between 16 and 23 utc the magnetosphere actually makes full contact with the earths surface.

I guess this explains why the dogs were under the cars and I feel like shit.


I don't know how many of you realize this, but this is not a joke, it is very serious and will have a serious impact on all life on this planet as it continues. The energy levels if the radiation involved are below that of cosmic radiation which generally has a very low flux density,but is is highly ionizing and deadly nevertheless. If the reasdout is accurate on the above referenced graph, dammage to biological was fairly extreme.... but this radiation we are experiencing can penetrate 6 inches of lead.


THIS WILL NOT BE ANNOUNCED ON TELEVISION BUT YOU WILL NOTICE HIGH PROFILE 'ELITES; ARE NOT TO BE FOUND DURING THESE VENTS.SOMETIMES WHEN THE PRESIDENT SPEAKS YOU CAN SEE IT IS FROM AN UNDERGROUND BUNKER AND NOT AN ORDINARY PRESS ROOM.

Looks like things are hotting up

When radiation strikes complex biological molecules, such as proteins or nucleic acids, it may fracture the molecules and prevent their proper functioning. This can result in loss of cell vitality, decreased enzyme activity, initiation of cancer, and genetic mutations. The immediate effects of acute exposure to radiation are caused by free radicals rupturing the cell membranes. This rupturing causes the cells to lose their contents and die. If enough cells are killed, functions associated with the cells cease. Death occurs because of the direct loss of vital organs or because of secondary infections resulting from the breakdown of the immune system. The effect depends on the dose of radiation received.

High doses of more than 100 gray affect the central nervous system, resulting in loss of coordination (including breathing problems), with death occurring within 1 or 2 days. Doses from 9 to 100 grays damage the gastrointestinal tract, causing nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. Progressive dehydration can result in death within several weeks. Lower doses (from 3 to 9 grays) damage the bone marrow and other haematopoietic tissues. This can lead to loss of appetite and hair, hemorrhaging, inflammation, and secondary infections such as pneumonia. These effects are also found in patients undergoing radiation therapy. Doses of less than 3 grays are rarely lethal, but cause symptoms that include loss of appetite and hair, hemorrhaging, and diarrhea.

Long-term risks of radiation exposure center on the incidence of cancer and genetic mutations. Both effects have proven difficult to determine since cigarette smoking, diet, and sunlight exposure are also known to cause cancer and possibly to promote genetic mutations. Analysis of approximately 100,000 survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki shows a slight increase in genetic mutations over what would be expected for a normal population, but this increase is so small that it may not be statistically significant. Hiroshima survivors who received more than 2 gray showed a slight increase in the instances of cancer over a normal population. There is a good deal of controversy over the contribution of natural background radiation and man-made radiation to the incidence of cancer in humans. The dosage threshold below which radiation has no effect is also controversial.

The radiation from Fukushima and the testing/production of nuclear weapons is 1000X more dangerous than anything coming from outer space. In fact your wi-fi and cell phone are more directly hazardous than the most severe geo-magnetic event. Get a grip on yourself, Astro. I'm worried about your irrational rants. You present a lot of dis-info and unwarranted fear-mongering. There are a few potential doom scenarios which we've discussed here many times; but nothing like the sci-fi horror stuff you're spewing. Oh, and there aren't any cars or buildings in the ionosphere that I'm aware of. Here's a good place to start your research- the Solar Storm Threat Analysis pdf:

[link to www.breadandbutterscience.com]

and Solar Energetic Particle Event Effects:

[link to conceptactivityresearchvault.wordpress.com]

NOAA Extended Warning-Persistence

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1880
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 04 0550 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1879
Valid From: 2012 Mar 04 0240 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 04 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

K Index has reached 5=Storm at Boulder, CO:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Solar wind is still at very low speed @ 382 km/s;

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NEW OVATION AURORA FORECASTER:

[link to helios.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 03/04/2012 01:38 AM

Hugh- I am sure you are observing the sun for quite some time. Was this the case last year? Did we have KP of 4 or more. When will we reach the solar max?

Thanks to those who answered my earlier questions.. i was just wondering if there is a program where you can go back and see the orbit of the moon and earth etc on a ceratin date in the past.. i think i remember seeng something from jpl i think it was.. maybe i was wrong.. if someone can help me with a link that would be awesome

Hmm ... how would we link magnetoshpere disturbances to spontaneous human combustion phenomenon, if we suppose that the phenomenon is real... well, at least funny things would happen for the body if we suddenly put 4 million electron volts through it, at least if it has some amperes, too.

Mark my words. The sun will be quite this week.100%confident.

looks photoshoped.

Climbing...
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

C3.7 so far

C 7.0 and climbing...
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

M 1.0
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

guess which region^^

New active 1429:
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

M 1.9 so far

Okay it was at max M2.0 now its M1.8 still in pogress
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Latest SAM
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

We can confirm Region 1429


There is also a CME seen on Stereo Images but this belongs to another event on the farside
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Watch latest Stereo Behind EUVI 195 VID
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

You can see close behind the east limb (bit north) a eruption and another one left side

Do we have multiple erruptions???? Is it earth directed???

We can see now on StereoBehind EUVI
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

that the flare triggered some cme around 1429, its to early

The CME we seen on Stereo Ahead C2 earlier todaywas not earth directed and belongs to a farside event
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Stereo Ahead earth is to the left
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Okay we have another Long duration M-flare and its still in pogress

LMSAL confirms Region 1429:

2012/03/04 10:29:00 10:52:00 10:45:00 M2.0 N16E64 ( 1429 )

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Is the CME earth facing???

and we can see now a CME from this event on Stereo imagery:


Stereo Behind C2
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]


Stereo Ahead C2
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]


Region 1429 is not in earth view but the cme looks very bright so i guess a portion of it could hit us

But lets wait a bit for more data

Hey...wow...good morning. Wild-looking cme there. Here's sdo close-up movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

Need to go back to sleep now....will check back later..

hey hugh and big thx will put it in :)

come back soon !

Good morning IWTB ... and to the M that is still a C 2 hrs later. This one's progression will be interesting to watching in the coming days !!!





SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 04 1126 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 04 1135 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 04 1212 UTC
Duration: 46 minutes
Peak Flux: 750 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Hiya TS66,

oh yep and we should also keep an eye on the filament next to it

Yes its a long duration one with a bright CME.

So the filament is the energy that flails around like a whip, yes ??? I haven't identified it yet on the latest images (if I'm even looking for the right thing) on Solarham.

I did find this little snippet of interest also :

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (04 March) as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to become
geoeffective. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 2 (05
March). On day 3 (06 March) another CH HSS is expected to move into
geoeffective position causing quiet to unsettled conditions.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

Now, would that be the coronal hole center south on this image ????

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Well it got loud awful quick LOL

Okay we have a new LDE Flare


:samgiflongdurati:

A long duration M2.0 Solar Flare peaked this morning at 10:45 UTC

and its still in pogress

:xraymarch4:
check X-ray:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

We noticed also a radioburst (Tenflare)
It reached 750 pfu


What is a Tenflare:
A tenflare is associated with optical and x-ray flares. Solar flares emit radiation over a very wide range of frequencies. One of the more significant frequencies observed is the 10.7 cm wavelength band (2695 MHz). When a solar flare erupts, "noise" from the flare is received over this very wide range of frequencies.

When the noise received on the 10.7 cm wavelength band surpasses 100% of the background noise level during a solar flare, a Tenflare is said to be in progress. The more intense solar flares are associated with tenflares. Almost all major flares are associated with tenflares.

Generally, the greater the intensity of the burst of noise observed at the 10.7 cm wavelength band, the more significant the flare is said to be. The duration of the tenflare can also be used to determine the severity of the flare.

Other important flare characteristics are also determined from the radio data observed from flares, which are closely related to the various physical processes which occur in flares. These characteristics are far beyond the scope of this document.
[link to www.sci.fi]



:sdo131mflaremarc:
Enlarge:
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]


A CME was also inbounded as we can see on Stereo images
:CMEstereoaheadm2:

:StereoBehindcmem:

Latest StereoBehind C2:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Region 1429 is not in earthview right now but the CME looks bright. A portion of this cme could be geoeffective



[link to www.youtube.com]


Edit:


Current Sunspots 15:21UTC 03/04/2012
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]