SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

i believe we will see a good majority of both CME's
we now have 2 CME's expected to arrive mid to late day UTC time on June 16th
i just updates the 'Expected Events' list we have on the Solar Alerts blog (found on the right hand side)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

i will spend a bit more time later today going over all data to see just how much of each CME i think we will see

and, today is not over yet! haha
more events look to be in the making ^^

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 06/14/2012 02:44 PM

welcome to the group :)
any questions on what you looking at or whats going on, just haller ^^
someone will chime in and help out :)

I noticed something I don't recall ever seeing before. This large CME was launched well ahead of the rise in the X-ray flux. The leading edge of the CME can be seen on STEREO A as early as 13:54z and on STEREO B at 14:09z. It usually takes at least an hour for CME to be visible beyond the occulting disks of the Cor2 coronagraphs. By the way, this one looks much faster, too.

STEREO B C2 Difference movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO A C2 Difference movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Big Bear movie loop of today's M-flare:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

nice work!!!

still have to catch up all things i passed...:D

This shape-shifting active region AR1504 is the producer of 5 coronal mass ejections since June 9

Nice vid from camillasdo; uploaded min ago


[link to www.youtube.com]

haha you caught that as well huh?!
good eye!
this is why i say i need to go over data a bit better to see exactly whats up

I'm with you on this one, these spots mean business. These LDEs have immense energy behind them

welcome back!!!!
you have been missed

Can you imagine an LDE like this in the low to mid X range, we'd be in for some turbulence

Thanks, Nin.

I will defer to the knowledgeable at this point.

~

I want to believe you!!





Z

NASA Goddard/iSWA has 3 CME alerts listed for arrival on June 16. This does not include today's big CME. There was halo CME on the 12th and yesterday's M-flare CME. I don't know where the third came from, but today's would make at least 3 or 4 CMEs headed this way. There could be an interplanetary traffic jam! No matter what, the magnetosphere is looking at a very active weekend.

I'll list these in order of their issuance (not the arrival time)-

Event Issue Date: 2012-06-13 14:01:51.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-06-16 19:52:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 12 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.3 Re

Event Issue Date: 2012-06-14 12:26:01.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-06-16 10:19:29.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 10 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.1 Re

Event Issue Date: 2012-06-14 14:05:15.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-06-16 10:16:42.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.9 Re

I'm going to start using a CME Scorecard, LOL.

You may need one with these SS

I dont remember when but I've seen earlier the same development of events (activity) at GOES X-ray Flux 3 days, 5-min data. I think it was in march when Japan was hit by huge earthquake. That week was the same pattern of activity , started suddenly and than slowing down (long duration), than again sudden high event and than again long duration... At the end was 2 X events followed by earthquake.

I remember something like that ,too.

Nice that somebody remember this!Otherwise thought I had Déjà vu.

I have a question:

AR1504 is now a BGD configuration. Isn't it true that an X-flare usually/mostly/always comes from a sunspot that is BGD?

A LDE with say an X5, that is earth directed will mean the likelihood of grid disruptions more than a regular X5 that just spikes and that is all, right??

Okay, so it was two questions? lol I have plenty more but hate to bog the thread down from real data too much.

Might I suggest you just keep updating this post as the new CME data comes in until 1504 rotates away?? Might help us all to see it in just one place.

According to Spaceweather.com, today's CME is traveling at 1360 km/s and forecast to reach Earth at 14:00UT on June 16th. This one and the other "glancing blows" are all due to arrive within a 12 hour period! This new one looks more like a punch-in-the-face than a glancing blow, LOL.

ANOTHER CME: On June 14th, for the second day in a row, sunspot AR1504 erupted and hurled a CME toward Earth. The fast-moving (1360 km/s) cloud is expected to hit our planet's magnetic field on June 16th at 14:00 UT
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

New NASA Cone Model:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

Today's HMI image of 1504-
:1504-6/14:

Dual and opposing rotation of North and South poles of 1504:
:closeup-magneto:

Got a little action [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Yep! and again it goes up very sharp. If I'm right this one will be higher than previous, the end will be slow long duration.

The C 4 flare was from AR1505 which is intimately connected to 1504. Stay alert as this may trigger another big flare from 1504 in response.

Big Bear H-alpha image of C 4 flare:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

I think you are correct on the first assertion, though I admit I don't pay too much attention those designations. IWTB 76 has a better grasp on the finer points.

On the second question, the X-rays aren't what threatens the power grids, it's the CME plasma and how it interacts with the Earth's magnetic field. If you're assuming a large CME from an LDE X-flare you may be correct. It's actually much more complicated and greatly depends on the density, speed and polarity of the incoming plasma. We had an X5 w/ a strong CME in March and the grid was unaffected. However, a CME need not be from an X-flare to potentially cause power grid failures.

NOAA Watch issued for June 17-

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 494
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 14 2105 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G1 (Minor) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Jun 17
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

noticed this before when there are a few cme's popping off and of varying intensity.
from those listed here, the first one is predicted to arrive 2012-06-16 at 19:52 GMT

the second one issued is predicted to arrive 2012-06-16 10:29 GMT, i.e. BEFORE the first one.

how can this be?

Yes assuming that a larger X-flare means larger CME. Most focus on the flare which isn't the worry unless it is X100, lol.

Still trying to learn how to tell when it is a large enough CME to hurt the grid and just can't get my head wrapped around all the scientific mumbo-jumbo and need things in plain English

1504 X flare threat

I think it's got something to do with density, the denser the CME the more plasma it carries with it. This is what I am thinking they monitor, the density of the CME. Another thing they take into consideration is the duration of the actual CME itself. The longer the CME duration is the longer the exposure. Same concept as with Radiation. All of this at extreme levels can effect our planet and all living creatures on it and can have dire consequences.

Thread: UFO Creates Massive Sun Flash 2012 HD
This looked very interesting, from a pinned thread. Makes you wonder!

Thank you El Q and Hugh! Appreciate both of you and all the valuable data you share!!!!