SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

another M flare

M1.2

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

An M1.2 flare from 1515 again.

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

K thanks

This is unbelievable, the next few days will be interesting as these energies come in... although, they do have an instantaneous effect on our body!

light entertainment : )

Movie of the CME from the latest flare

[link to helioviewer.org]

This is light entertainment.........

what a great day, thanks for sharing all this great stuff everyone!

My app 3D Sun is just now alerting me to an X-Flare, the one we had earlier... :/
I saw the x when it happened a while ago. When I first got he alert I thought damn we have another. :/

1519!
61% chances for M flare
62% chance for X

How does flare monitor work?

Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server.

These images are then processed using "ASAP" to automatically detect, group and then classify the sunspot groups and calculate their flaring probabilities.
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 07/07/2012 01:34 AM

Miss the old avatar, love the new one!

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 359
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 07 0255 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 07 0255 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 08 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1962
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 07 0255 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1961
Valid From: 2012 Jul 06 1935 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Jul 07 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


The first predicted CME impact is due anytime now.

Thread: Sure hope this is a error..Cosmic Ray Density



IMAGE [link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

It's pretty useless toy, alerts always come with a delay.

Thanks Hugh. How are you. We are waiting on the cme. What is your opinion of this cosmic ray density chart? Must be broke or we slipped timelines?? LOL.

SEEDS CME movie from X-Flare:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

STEREO A Cor2 movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Looks like it may have some Earth-directed elements, though not a direct hit.


:X CMEc2A:

Doing well now, Finley. Thanks for asking. For past week or so my internet access has been going crazy and today I watched the x-flare helplessly trying to post and my browser was just freezing up. Thankfully that problem seems to be solved now so I feel less frazzled. It was taking 10 minutes to download a single solar image...very frustrating.

By the way, after an unusually hot June, today we had some rain and thunder and the temps dropped about 20 degrees. Right now Colorado is suddenly the coolest spot in America (excluding Alaska, haha).

Regarding Cosmic Rays, there are two main types detected at Earth; Galactic Cosmic Rays and Solar Cosmic Rays. During periods of high solar activity (like now) GCRs are minimal as they get swept away by the solar winds. Sometimes extreme solar activity will cause a jump in Solar cosmic rays which cause GLEs (Ground Level Enhancements). Any spike in cosmic rays now would be due to solar activity.

Check out the cosmic ray counter on the orbiting International Space Station's AMS2 (alpha-magnetic spectrometer). Wow, I just checked it briefly and you can see it speeding up.

[link to ams.nasa.gov]

The ICETOP Neutron Monitor doesn't seem to show any unusual spikes now:

[link to www.bartol.udel.edu]

To learn more, here's the homepage:

[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]

Solarsoft/SDO close-up movie of X-flare w/ ejection:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

SOHO C3 Image of CME
:C3xxx:

AR1520 Looks Menacing
:HMI_latest1520:

Well-done summary! More informative than Spaceweather.com's error-filled blurbs and regurgitated NASA press releases. Kudos.

Thanks, I got a lot of negative feed-back w/ the birthday hair pix, people thought it was really me and hated it!

doom music, please! that looks like a killer!

OMG it's going to be a hot one on the 7th!

Thanks, Nin!

ok ok ok i have to rant here for a moment about this site you just praised

-the 1st part of their report is mainly from solarham
(they do this a lot to solarham)

-the 2nd part is word for word c&p from SWPC
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

-the 3rd part (Sudden ionospheric disturbances) is word for word c&c from spaceweather.com for july 6
[link to spaceweather.com]

-the 4th part (new sunspot) again a word for word c&p from spaceweather.com for july 6th
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

thats all they do
report after report after effing report
all the solar reports anyone reads on their site, you HAVE ALREADY read elsewhere!
they see something solar happens, scan a quick google search and copy what looks good from others that bust their asses getting you all correct and fast info.
then they run to their site and PASTE it in all pretty to make a whole new report that they now try to call their own

now, if they stated that their reports were put together from reports found on the net, and maybe gave credited links back to the people they took the reports from, then it might be fine. i cant speak for those that wrote the reports and had them taken, some stuff writen is copyrited, i can only speak for myself

ya know how FAST i could put together a full report if i just ran around copying others hard work?!
but, then, it would not be my report now... would it?!

(not harshing on you HUGE, just venting some about this link, cause i knew they did this many many months back and have kept my mouth mostly shut about it. i couldnt do it anymore)

Well said Nin, i to have noticed this and, as an academic, do not appreciate this sort of C&P....

Last Edited by nerdrage88sasr on 07/07/2012 04:11 AM

another M flare M1.0
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA predicts CME to be a clear miss;

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

The M 1 flare at 08:30ish was from the new region 15__-

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

NINz, thanks for the tip-off, I wasn't aware of that. But shame on me, I should've recognized the blurb from Spaceweather which I read more than once. Now I feel duped again,LOL. I very much enjoyed your rant.

If they plagiarize other writers without attribution and//or permission they're in violation of the law. That's why we quote snippets and give links or references to the original source. They should be shunned and driven from the web until they clean up their act. Selah.

Well, I don't think this was posted before, but Space Weather finally has their A>20 watch in force until midnight the 9th UTC .

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 495
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 05 2129 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G1 (Minor) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Jul 08
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

... and an S1 storm warning until 10 PM EST this evening.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 359
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 07 0255 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 07 0255 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 08 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Whenever they put these warnings up, especially the 48 hour ones, I'm pretty sure they are low balling what they are actually anticipating, but we'll have to wait and see...

However, Nin you may get to see some aurora !!!