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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
optimum judgment  User ID: 24021617  United Kingdom10/08/2013 06:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 48056376  United States10/08/2013 06:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| M1.618 User ID: 20188364  Canada10/08/2013 06:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Quoting: WatcherJ This CME , that i just posted happened about 12 hours ago before this last one that just happen. I'm still going to through the last few pages of this page Sorry if i confused anyone.  Data from everywhere seems to be late & inconsistent... wmMmw |
| Hugh M Eye User ID: 47869419 United States10/08/2013 06:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected Quoting: Goofy for God Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2020 UTC Valid To: 2013 Oct 08 2050 UTC IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 08 1942 UTC NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales been out what has happened this in my email Wow! Thanks for your vigilance GFG! This seems way too early to be from that filament eruption. This is about 24-hours early for NOAA's 'faster' arrival; and almost 48 hours early for the 'slower' NASA prediction!! Two possibilities off the top of my head are 1) We all missed something (ie, a different event), or 2) The velocity was grossly underestimated! Without the benefit of the STEREO images of that CME it's a crap-shoot to tell the speed of a dead-on Earth-directed CME from the SOHO pics alone. If you ever watched a baseball game, it's pretty easy to spot a change-up or a fastball from the dugout POV, but it's very difficult from the batter's POV (ie, comin' right at ya). Even the supercomputers need to triangulate data to accurately assess the velocity. Conclusion-NASA strikes out on a fastball up and in. 200 km/sec increase in Solar Wind speed is not a weak of glancing blow... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]  3 things I really watch, SUN, EQ and Weather cause God is in control not NASA I can't argue with the trurh....Peace. |
| #Geomagnetic_Storm# User ID: 48086451 United States10/08/2013 06:57 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected Quoting: Goofy for God Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2020 UTC Valid To: 2013 Oct 08 2050 UTC IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 08 1942 UTC NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales been out what has happened this in my email Wow! Thanks for your vigilance GFG! This seems way too early to be from that filament eruption. This is about 24-hours early for NOAA's 'faster' arrival; and almost 48 hours early for the 'slower' NASA prediction!! Two possibilities off the top of my head are 1) We all missed something (ie, a different event), or 2) The velocity was grossly underestimated! Without the benefit of the STEREO images of that CME it's a crap-shoot to tell the speed of a dead-on Earth-directed CME from the SOHO pics alone. If you ever watched a baseball game, it's pretty easy to spot a change-up or a fastball from the dugout POV, but it's very difficult from the batter's POV (ie, comin' right at ya). Even the supercomputers need to triangulate data to accurately assess the velocity. Conclusion-NASA strikes out on a fastball up and in. 200 km/sec increase in Solar Wind speed is not a weak of glancing blow... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] 3 things I really watch, SUN, EQ and Weather cause God is in control not NASA I can't argue with the trurh....Peace. This. |
| Hugh M Eye User ID: 47869419 United States10/08/2013 07:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Quoting: WatcherJ This CME , that i just posted happened about 12 hours ago before this last one that just happen. I'm still going to through the last few pages of this page Sorry if i confused anyone. Thanks, Dettro, that was from the huge prominence eruption earlier today. (not Earth-directed). Got this link from spaceweather.com to an SDO 304 gif movie of the liftoff....very impressive. [link to www.spaceweather.com] The CME that's hitting now had precious-few images to find. Sol likes to erupt just as the coronagraphs go on hiatus....it's just one of the things which are driving me crazy, LOL. Just for the Department of Redundancy Department, here's the NASA CME prognostication- Event Issue Date: 2013-10-06 17:28:36.0 GMT CME Arrival Time: 2013-10-09 18:42:27.0 GMT Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours Disturbance Duration: 29 hours Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.8 Re |
| madajs. User ID: 35856189 Canada10/08/2013 07:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Space Weather Message Code: WARK06 Quoting: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Serial Number: 233 Issue Time: 2013 Oct 08 2258 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2257 UTC Valid To: 2013 Oct 09 0300 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate Potential G2 action, neato  And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation." |
| shadasonic User ID: 41520215 United States10/08/2013 07:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Space Weather Message Code: WARK06 Quoting: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Serial Number: 233 Issue Time: 2013 Oct 08 2258 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2257 UTC Valid To: 2013 Oct 09 0300 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate Potential G2 action, neato I like sneaky G2 storms.lol “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
| joinca User ID: 46553057 United States10/08/2013 07:22 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Was this the one? CME0029 - 08-Oct-2013 20:54 peaks at 2000 Km/s [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Movie is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be] JPG is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be] CMEs detected by Cactus: [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] "The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family! |
| Hugh M Eye User ID: 47869419 United States10/08/2013 07:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Space Weather Message Code: WARK06 Quoting: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Serial Number: 233 Issue Time: 2013 Oct 08 2258 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2257 UTC Valid To: 2013 Oct 09 0300 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate Potential G2 action, neato I like sneaky G2 storms.lol Me too.  |
| Hugh M Eye User ID: 47869419 United States10/08/2013 07:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Was this the one? Quoting: joinca CME0029 - 08-Oct-2013 20:54 peaks at 2000 Km/s [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Movie is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be] JPG is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be] CMEs detected by Cactus: [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Howdy, Joinca  the incoming plasma is from a mid-disk filament eruption on the 6th. STEREO missed it and so did the CACTus computers. I said at the time that this was 'well-aimed at Earth' but I had no way of even guessing the strength or velocity without all of the images. Evidently well-aimed CMEs tend to get here quicker and escape detection by CACTus. You can see a halo CME in this CACTus movie, but CACTus recorded no halo CMEs on that date. [link to www.sidc.oma.be] This is why vigilant Solar-Watchers are even better than the space agencies supercomputers like CACTus, Solarsoft. Thanks to GONG and SDO we can see events develop from their initial eruptions. Well-Aimed at Earth-  |
| shadasonic User ID: 41520215 United States10/08/2013 07:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Was this the one? Quoting: joinca CME0029 - 08-Oct-2013 20:54 peaks at 2000 Km/s [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Movie is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be] JPG is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be] CMEs detected by Cactus: [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Howdy, Joinca the incoming plasma is from a mid-disk filament eruption on the 6th. STEREO missed it and so did the CACTus computers. I said at the time that this was 'well-aimed at Earth' but I had no way of even guessing the strength or velocity without all of the images. Evidently well-aimed CMEs tend to get here quicker and escape detection by CACTus. You can see a halo CME in this CACTus movie, but CACTus recorded no halo CMEs on that date. [link to www.sidc.oma.be] This is why vigilant Solar-Watchers are even better than the space agencies supercomputers like CACTus, Solarsoft. Thanks to GONG and SDO we can see events develop from their initial eruptions. Well-Aimed at Earth- Very Nice! “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
| joinca User ID: 46553057 United States10/08/2013 08:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Was this the one? Quoting: joinca CME0029 - 08-Oct-2013 20:54 peaks at 2000 Km/s [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Movie is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be] JPG is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be] CMEs detected by Cactus: [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Howdy, Joinca the incoming plasma is from a mid-disk filament eruption on the 6th. STEREO missed it and so did the CACTus computers. I said at the time that this was 'well-aimed at Earth' but I had no way of even guessing the strength or velocity without all of the images. Evidently well-aimed CMEs tend to get here quicker and escape detection by CACTus. You can see a halo CME in this CACTus movie, but CACTus recorded no halo CMEs on that date. [link to www.sidc.oma.be] This is why vigilant Solar-Watchers are even better than the space agencies supercomputers like CACTus, Solarsoft. Thanks to GONG and SDO we can see events develop from their initial eruptions. Well-Aimed at Earth- Thanks Hugh. As always the sun crew rocks!!!  "The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family! |
| #Geomagnetic_Storm# User ID: 26902041 United States10/08/2013 08:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hopefully it doesn't reach G5 since my cloud cover here. |
| Hugh M Eye User ID: 47869419 United States10/08/2013 08:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Before this unexpected storm hit I was preparing to alert the reader to the fabulous configuration of Venus and the crescent Moon (...and also Mercury and Saturn if you have a good vantage of the western horizon). It was absolutely breathtaking last night and now again this evening in twilight. I had the added bonus of working a graveyard shift last night/this morning and so I also got to see Jupiter and Mars in the east at 5AM! With good eyesight (or binos) , clear skies, and a freedom-from-light-pollution, you can see the beautiful crescent Moon and all five inner planets (six if you look down at your feet!). I dare the government to shut that down, haha. [link to www.skyandtelescope.com] Special Note to GeoStorm- check out the triple-transit shadows of Jupiter's Moons on the 11th...might be a nice photo-op.:) |
| sounds User ID: 47525129  Australia10/08/2013 08:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | it seems my road less travelled has become an express way of events. Love & light all. Sunspot AR 1857 09 10 2013 [link to i1245.photobucket.com] Sunspots 1161 & unnumbered new spots 09 10 2013 [link to i1245.photobucket.com] Unnumbered new sunspots 09 10 2013 [link to i1245.photobucket.com] The Sun 09 10 2013 [link to i1245.photobucket.com]  Political correctness without wisdom, is just Political nonsense. |
| joinca User ID: 46553057 United States10/08/2013 08:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | In the estimated Kp7+ range??????? [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]  "The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family! |
| shadasonic User ID: 41520215 United States10/08/2013 09:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Wasn't expecting that “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
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| Hugh M Eye User ID: 47869419 United States10/08/2013 09:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | NOAA seems perplexed about this CME, too. They seem to indicate as I suggested that some event went unnoticed and they seem to hold out expectations of the filament CME hitting us tomorrow night. Confusion reigns. Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was very low. Region 1861 (S13E50, Bxo/beta) produced a B-class flare. New Regions 1863 (S18E19, Bxo/beta), 1864 (S23E62, Hsx/alpha), and 1865 (S20E70, Cao/beta) were numbered. A large prominence erupted from the northeast limb at around 08/0030 UTC associated with a non-Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period. Solar Wind .Forecast... CME effects are expected to persist during the first half of Oct. 9, then gradually subside. Analysis is inconclusive as to whether the current effects are from the CME associated with the filament eruption on Oct. 6 or a different, undetected CME. If they are separate events, effects from the current CME should persist through the first part of Oct 9 then begin to wane through midday. The CME from the filament eruption on Oct. 6 is then expected to arrive late on Oct. 9, again increasing wind speed and IMF Bt. CME effects are expected to persist through midday on Oct. 10, then gradually subside. Wind speed is expected to increase on Oct. 11 due to the onset of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Current ACE data shows that solar plasma density reached near 60p/cu.cm.- 2013 10 08 2051 56573 75060 0 34.2 421.4 2.34e+05 2013 10 08 2052 56573 75120 1 34.7 445.9 2.48e+05 2013 10 08 2053 56573 75180 0 3.4 342.3 6.10e+04 2013 10 08 2054 56573 75240 1 23.3 434.5 2.71e+05 2013 10 08 2055 56573 75300 1 30.4 420.8 2.78e+05 2013 10 08 2056 56573 75360 0 33.0 440.6 2.30e+05 2013 10 08 2057 56573 75420 0 12.3 380.7 1.14e+05 2013 10 08 2058 56573 75480 1 26.3 387.3 1.87e+05 2013 10 08 2059 56573 75540 1 38.3 443.8 2.38e+05 2013 10 08 2100 56573 75600 0 38.3 461.3 1.80e+05 2013 10 08 2101 56573 75660 0 47.7 448.0 1.53e+05 2013 10 08 2102 56573 75720 0 58.6 427.6 1.48e+05 2013 10 08 2103 56573 75780 0 56.1 390.9 1.21e+05 2013 10 08 2104 56573 75840 0 10.4 364.7 7.41e+04 2013 10 08 2105 56573 75900 0 53.4 449.0 1.55e+05 2013 10 08 2106 56573 75960 0 56.0 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] and now we have an M-Flare!! [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]  Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 10/08/2013 09:44 PM |
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| #Geomagnetic_Storm# User ID: 48050109 United States10/08/2013 09:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Oh hello! |
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