Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS | |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 19588417 United States 02/01/2013 02:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS Looks like the impact wouldn't be terribly damaging if it were to hit Earth, less than a megaton. Throwing a bunch of satellites out of orbit could be problematic though. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19588417 Oh yeah, now that I think about it when you consider all of the debris floating in Earth orbit left over from smashed satellites. The rest of our satellites will be in a shooting gallery and at high risk of getting taken out by left over debris whizzing around the earth. Hmmm |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 865798 United States 02/01/2013 02:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS Looks like the impact wouldn't be terribly damaging if it were to hit Earth, less than a megaton. Throwing a bunch of satellites out of orbit could be problematic though. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19588417 Oh yeah, now that I think about it when you consider all of the debris floating in Earth orbit left over from smashed satellites. The rest of our satellites will be in a shooting gallery and at high risk of getting taken out by left over debris whizzing around the earth. Hmmm Like a chain reaction. And, it is extremely difficult 'cleaning' up the orbiting space debris. So, it is not such a simple scenario. It could end up being a pretty complex and time-consuming problem. I imagine there are quite a few unpredictable variables in all this. |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 33454693 United Kingdom 02/01/2013 02:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS Will twatter still work..? Quoting: Waterbug Cause.. it's really significantly friggin' important to a lot of really friggin' insignificant people.. Jes sayin'. lol I wonder if they know which satellites it will hit. I covered the possible impacts here: Thread: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!! If I re-ran these calculations with the latest astrometric data (the asteroid was found again last month and new astrometric data is now available) it would probably exclude these possibilities. I would do that, but my computer is preoccupied running calculations on another asteroid right now. Which other asteroid are you monitering Dr Astro ???? |
Dr. Astro Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 4211721 United States 02/01/2013 02:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS Will twatter still work..? Quoting: Waterbug Cause.. it's really significantly friggin' important to a lot of really friggin' insignificant people.. Jes sayin'. lol I wonder if they know which satellites it will hit. I covered the possible impacts here: Thread: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!! If I re-ran these calculations with the latest astrometric data (the asteroid was found again last month and new astrometric data is now available) it would probably exclude these possibilities. I would do that, but my computer is preoccupied running calculations on another asteroid right now. Which other asteroid are you monitering Dr Astro ???? 1979 XB |
*HAARP Lady* User ID: 30590548 United States 02/01/2013 02:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS Will the GLP telescope be able to capture any of the display? I would SO love that! I loved the GLP scope of the Moon and sun a few years back! (or was that last year?) hehehe ~ Haarpy Don't get mad - Get a Pepsi! |
Dr. Astro Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 4211721 United States 02/01/2013 02:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS Will the GLP telescope be able to capture any of the display? I would SO love that! Quoting: *HAARP Lady* I loved the GLP scope of the Moon and sun a few years back! (or was that last year?) hehehe ~ Haarpy The US only gets to see the asteroid on its way out after it's already passed the point of close approach. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 865798 United States 02/01/2013 02:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS Will twatter still work..? Quoting: Waterbug Cause.. it's really significantly friggin' important to a lot of really friggin' insignificant people.. Jes sayin'. lol I wonder if they know which satellites it will hit. I covered the possible impacts here: Thread: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!! If I re-ran these calculations with the latest astrometric data (the asteroid was found again last month and new astrometric data is now available) it would probably exclude these possibilities. I would do that, but my computer is preoccupied running calculations on another asteroid right now. I was hoping you'd stop by on this thread, Astro. Thanks |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33454693 United Kingdom 02/01/2013 02:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS I covered the possible impacts here: Thread: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!! If I re-ran these calculations with the latest astrometric data (the asteroid was found again last month and new astrometric data is now available) it would probably exclude these possibilities. I would do that, but my computer is preoccupied running calculations on another asteroid right now. Which other asteroid are you monitering Dr Astro ???? 1979 XB But it has 99% chance of missing doesn't it . |
Dr. Astro Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 4211721 United States 02/01/2013 02:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS ... Quoting: Dr. Astro I covered the possible impacts here: Thread: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!! If I re-ran these calculations with the latest astrometric data (the asteroid was found again last month and new astrometric data is now available) it would probably exclude these possibilities. I would do that, but my computer is preoccupied running calculations on another asteroid right now. Which other asteroid are you monitering Dr Astro ???? 1979 XB But it has 99% chance of missing doesn't it . Much greater than 99% chance of missing. Less than a 1 in a million chance of hitting. The problem is that no one has any idea where it is in its orbit, it could be anywhere which is why there still exists the possibility of impact in the future. It's considered "lost." Although the odds are extremely low, I find it interesting because it's one of the largest potential near-term threats (as in, within my lifetime) out there. It's estimated to be over half a kilometer in diameter, about twice the size of Apophis. Very low probability, very high consequence event. I want to directly rule out the possibility of an impact at the first possible impact date of December 12, 2056. I may not be able to find the asteroid by myself (like I said, it could be anywhere along its orbit at this point), but I can at least figure out where it would have to be today in order to impact us in 2056. Last Edited by Astromut on 02/01/2013 02:38 PM |
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Dr. Astro Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 4211721 United States 02/01/2013 02:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS 1 in 13,983,816 odds on winning the lottery ,1 in 3,846,000 chance of 1979 asteroid impacting earth,1 in 7,692,308,000 chance of 2012 DA14 impacting earth . Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33454693 Right, just want to point out that those odds for 2012 DA14 are the cumulative odds of an impact at any future date. There is no possibility of impact on February 15, the first possible impact doesn't occur for nearly a hundred years. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 865798 United States 02/01/2013 02:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS Much greater than 99% chance of missing. Less than a 1 in a million chance of hitting. The problem is that no one has any idea where it is in its orbit, it could be anywhere which is why there still exists the possibility of impact in the future. It's considered "lost." Although the odds are extremely low, I find it interesting because it's one of the largest potential near-term threats (as in, within my lifetime) out there. It's estimated to be over half a kilometer in diameter, about twice the size of Apophis. Very low probability, very high consequence event. I want to directly rule out the possibility of an impact at the first possible impact date of December 12, 2056. I may not be able to find the asteroid by myself (like I said, it could be anywhere along its orbit at this point), but I can at least figure out where it would have to be today in order to impact us in 2056. I read somewhere that it would make a crater the size of the big one in Arizona. Also, that it would impact and cause a detonation the size of Tunguska, even though that one may have exploded before impacting the ground. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33454693 United Kingdom 02/01/2013 02:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS 1 in 13,983,816 odds on winning the lottery ,1 in 3,846,000 chance of 1979 asteroid impacting earth,1 in 7,692,308,000 chance of 2012 DA14 impacting earth . Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33454693 Right, just want to point out that those odds for 2012 DA14 are the cumulative odds of an impact at any future date. There is no possibility of impact on February 15, the first possible impact doesn't occur for nearly a hundred years. None whatsoever i got more chance in winning the lottery ,or knowing my luck i will win it on the very day it does impact . |
Dr. Astro Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 4211721 United States 02/01/2013 02:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS Much greater than 99% chance of missing. Less than a 1 in a million chance of hitting. The problem is that no one has any idea where it is in its orbit, it could be anywhere which is why there still exists the possibility of impact in the future. It's considered "lost." Although the odds are extremely low, I find it interesting because it's one of the largest potential near-term threats (as in, within my lifetime) out there. It's estimated to be over half a kilometer in diameter, about twice the size of Apophis. Very low probability, very high consequence event. I want to directly rule out the possibility of an impact at the first possible impact date of December 12, 2056. I may not be able to find the asteroid by myself (like I said, it could be anywhere along its orbit at this point), but I can at least figure out where it would have to be today in order to impact us in 2056. I read somewhere that it would make a crater the size of the big one in Arizona. Also, that it would impact and cause a detonation the size of Tunguska, even though that one may have exploded before impacting the ground. I haven't read about anyone saying anything recently about 1979 XB, aside from a couple obscure mentions in the Minor Planet Center blog. 1979 is more than 10 times the size of the rock that caused Barringer crater in Arizona. Apophis is about 5 times the size of that rock. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 865798 United States 02/01/2013 02:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS Much greater than 99% chance of missing. Less than a 1 in a million chance of hitting. The problem is that no one has any idea where it is in its orbit, it could be anywhere which is why there still exists the possibility of impact in the future. It's considered "lost." Although the odds are extremely low, I find it interesting because it's one of the largest potential near-term threats (as in, within my lifetime) out there. It's estimated to be over half a kilometer in diameter, about twice the size of Apophis. Very low probability, very high consequence event. I want to directly rule out the possibility of an impact at the first possible impact date of December 12, 2056. I may not be able to find the asteroid by myself (like I said, it could be anywhere along its orbit at this point), but I can at least figure out where it would have to be today in order to impact us in 2056. I read somewhere that it would make a crater the size of the big one in Arizona. Also, that it would impact and cause a detonation the size of Tunguska, even though that one may have exploded before impacting the ground. I haven't read about anyone saying anything recently about 1979 XB, aside from a couple obscure mentions in the Minor Planet Center blog. 1979 is more than 10 times the size of the rock that caused Barringer crater in Arizona. Apophis is about 5 times the size of that rock. Oh, here it is. It was actually in my links. It was from when they were reporting it last year. But, this article didn't talk about the Arizona crater. Must have bene the other link. National Geographic reports that if the asteroid hits the the Earth, it will likely hit the Antarctica or the Southern Ocean because it approaches the Earth from the south. The impact of the 140,000 ton rock could release energy equivalent to a 2.4 megaton bomb, about the same as the 1908 Tunguska blast in which hundreds of square miles of forest in Siberia were leveled. According to Chodas, "If the asteroid were to strike the ocean, It could produce a tsunami," although "it probably wouldn't be big." Quoting: NatGeoRead more: [link to digitaljournal.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33061352 United States 02/01/2013 02:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS Asteroid 2012 DA14 doesn't have to hit us... All it's going to take is for the asteroid to come close enough to interact with the Earths magnetic shield and cause some sort of adverse reaction... That is all it will take... |
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Dr. Astro Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 4211721 United States 02/01/2013 03:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS ... Quoting: Dr. Astro Much greater than 99% chance of missing. Less than a 1 in a million chance of hitting. The problem is that no one has any idea where it is in its orbit, it could be anywhere which is why there still exists the possibility of impact in the future. It's considered "lost." Although the odds are extremely low, I find it interesting because it's one of the largest potential near-term threats (as in, within my lifetime) out there. It's estimated to be over half a kilometer in diameter, about twice the size of Apophis. Very low probability, very high consequence event. I want to directly rule out the possibility of an impact at the first possible impact date of December 12, 2056. I may not be able to find the asteroid by myself (like I said, it could be anywhere along its orbit at this point), but I can at least figure out where it would have to be today in order to impact us in 2056. I read somewhere that it would make a crater the size of the big one in Arizona. Also, that it would impact and cause a detonation the size of Tunguska, even though that one may have exploded before impacting the ground. I haven't read about anyone saying anything recently about 1979 XB, aside from a couple obscure mentions in the Minor Planet Center blog. 1979 is more than 10 times the size of the rock that caused Barringer crater in Arizona. Apophis is about 5 times the size of that rock. Oh, here it is. It was actually in my links. It was from when they were reporting it last year. But, this article didn't talk about the Arizona crater. Must have bene the other link. They were talking about impact possibilities at future dates, not Feb 15th. Also the dates they mentioned have already been ruled out based on more recent astrometric data. |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 33460327 United Kingdom 02/01/2013 04:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS more failed doom buddy, nutting ain't gonna happen - so get back to work like a slave you little oik Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33460327 Chances are, you are correct. OP, i am correct cause you only need to look at all the failed dooms over the last 12 months or so, mayans, elenin, disclosure, san andreas, yellowstone, blossom goodchild, the list is endless - any doom predicted by humans is not only doomed to fail, it's never going to happen ever |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 865798 United States 02/01/2013 04:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 Close Enough to Smash Satellites in Orbit on February 15, 2013 - Added a few VIDEOS more failed doom buddy, nutting ain't gonna happen - so get back to work like a slave you little oik Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33460327 Chances are, you are correct. OP, i am correct cause you only need to look at all the failed dooms over the last 12 months or so, mayans, elenin, disclosure, san andreas, yellowstone, blossom goodchild, the list is endless - any doom predicted by humans is not only doomed to fail, it's never going to happen ever Well, this doom is not about impacting earth, it is about hitting a satellite. So, I guess it depends on your definition of 'doom'. If it hit a satellite, but caused no collateral damage, I wouldn't consider that doom. You seem to be thinking it would be doom. |