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Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!

 
FreakObserver

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11/16/2013 11:40 AM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
This is what you want to be on the lookout for:


:haarp1:






It is what it looks like when "they" are HAARPing.

Stay safe my friends.
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 11:47 AM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
SPC is saying, and conditions look ripe for a...derecho! Seriously!!!
Anonymous Coward
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11/16/2013 11:50 AM
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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
SPC is saying, and conditions look ripe for a...derecho! Seriously!!!
 Quoting: Luisport
Son of a bitch! I'm not usually one to freak out over storms, but I'm going to get my preps in order. Seriously!
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 11:50 AM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
SPC is saying, and conditions look ripe for a...derecho! Seriously!!!
 Quoting: Luisport
Son of a bitch! I'm not usually one to freak out over storms, but I'm going to get my preps in order. Seriously!
 Quoting: Melrox


Yes, please do it!
Too Dark Park

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11/16/2013 12:04 PM
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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
SPC is saying, and conditions look ripe for a...derecho! Seriously!!!
 Quoting: Luisport



jumpy


I am very excited. I moved to Indiana recently and have since been very anxious in seeing the weather up here. Nothing awesome ever happens in Texas unless you live up in the Panhandle. I'm going to be outside waiting for it!
Too Dark Park

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11/16/2013 12:06 PM
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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
...OH AND TN VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT AND A FEW
TORNADOES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE
MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.






AKA a derecho
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:07 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 49 m
Widespread damaging wind threat for Midwest on Sunday, shifts to Northeast Sunday night-Monday [link to www.accuweather.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:08 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
WHY THERE ARE PEOPLE GIVING ME RED KARMA FOR THIS??? redface
Anonymous Coward
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11/16/2013 12:10 PM
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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
They just raised the Torcon for my area to 6...
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:10 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 2h
Some #severe storms are possible in the Midwest tonight, however a bigger severe t-storm outbreak is expected Sunday: [link to wxch.nl]
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:11 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
They just raised the Torcon for my area to 6...
 Quoting: Melrox


alone
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:13 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
Timing for severe storms tomorrow in area of Middle Tennessee. [link to www.srh.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Luisport on 11/16/2013 12:13 PM
Anonymous Coward
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11/16/2013 12:13 PM
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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
They just raised the Torcon for my area to 6...
 Quoting: Melrox


alone
 Quoting: Luisport
We're still 24 hrs. out...could raise again. I've NEVER seen it this high for us at most a 4.
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:17 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!

Ryan Breton ‏@RyanBretonWX 3h
Moderate risk of severe weather in OH tomorrow; slight risk extends all the way into central Pennsylvania: [link to www.spc.noaa.gov] …


Rick Mitchell ‏@RickMitchellWX 3h
Moderate risk of svr storms tomorrow in Midwest. Widespread svr wind event & a few tornadoes possible. #dfwwx [link to twitter.com (secure)]
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:18 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
Dr. Greg Forbes ‏@DrGregForbes 17h
My full severe forecast at [link to www.weather.com]



Dr. Greg Forbes ‏@DrGregForbes 17h
Dangerous day Sunday - maybe even Sunday morning in east IA, IL, south WI with a tornado threat and then spreading across Midwest, Mid-South
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:19 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 3h
Probabilities on the increase for Sunday #Severe event featuring damaging winds and a few tornadoes in hatched area: [link to www.spc.noaa.gov] …
Rachael123

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11/16/2013 12:21 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
bump
Anonymous Coward
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11/16/2013 12:22 PM
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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
Thank you Luis! I don't watch TV so I wouldn't have known. I'll be going to the store later.

Stay safe everyone!

Thanks again!

hf
Anonymous Coward
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11/16/2013 12:24 PM
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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
Any chance of New York getting this?
Anonymous Coward
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11/16/2013 12:33 PM
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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
I'm right in the middle of it.

I am also paying attention, the fire dept has been to my apartments 3 times this week training.
Last night they came at 4am setting off this horrible sound where you have no choice except leave.

I couldn't even find my passport, needless to say I got a lesson in the importance of having a bob.

It was a bad feeling standing outside in the cold in my pj's and not allowed back into the building. All the electronic locks were locked down except the front door where there was a guard.
 Quoting: Ms Zippy


WTH......why would they come in a 4am. How inconsiderate & not necessary at all.

Yesterday in my building, the fire alarm went off 2 times. First time was in the early afternoon & second time at 10:30pm. Both times the fire truck came & it took them about 10mins to shut it off. There are no kids in my building to be pranking it & its a security controlled front entrance, so I believe the alarm was malfunctiong for some reason. The building is fairly new also.
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:39 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
November 17 Potential Severe Weather Outbreak By Andrew at 5:09 PM There is potential for a severe weather outbreak this weekend, as an amplified storm system traverses the Plains, leading to an enhanced jet stream and an opportunity for a potentially significant squall line. The image above shows the jet stream wind speed projection for Sunday evening. I drew in the black line to show the tilt of the storm system, which should be negatively-tilted for this event. The negative tilt matters in this situation, as negatively-tilted storms tend to produce more "intense" severe weather events than positively-tilted storm systems (which involve the storm pushing to the southwest). The jet stream should be absolutely screaming when this event begins, with the NAM forecast above maxing out above 110 knots. The active jet stream will lead to this event being maximized in the severity, in terms that whatever severe weather that occurs on Sunday should be of decent significance (i.e. damaging winds and possibly a tornado). Simulated reflectivity projections from the NAM model indicate that a strong squall line should stretch from Ohio to the western tip of Tennessee by the evening hours on Sunday. Per hodographs from immediately out ahead of the squall line, any convection that forms before the squall line pushes through may be tornadic. In the same fashion, if the squall line itself is more of a coagulation of individual cells rather than a line of storms, there is a raised potential of tornadoes. At the time, storm motion (storm speed) around 50-60 knots to the east-northeast tells me that this will certainly be a big damaging wind threat. Lower level winds just 5000' off the ground will be over 60 knots, and if these winds translate to the surface, we could see a large-scale damaging wind event over the Ohio Valley. - See more at: [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:41 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
They just raised the Torcon for my area to 6...
 Quoting: Melrox


alone
 Quoting: Luisport
We're still 24 hrs. out...could raise again. I've NEVER seen it this high for us at most a 4.
 Quoting: Melrox


The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 21 m
TOR:CON has been raised to a 6 in IN and IL by @drgregforbes for Sun. More details on this and what TOR:CON means: [link to wxch.nl]
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:43 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
Saturday, Nov. 16

The first upper-air disturbance does not have much instability to work with, but may be able to give an isolated severe thunderstorm in central and east IA, north MO. TOR:CON - 2. A chance of a very isolated severe thunderstorm in west MO, extreme east OK, extreme southeast KS. TOR:CON - 1

Saturday Night, Nov. 16-17

The second upper-air disturbance begins to intercept the returning moisture and gives isolated severe thunderstorms pre-dawn in east IA, north MO, east MO, west IL. TOR:CON - 2 to 3

Sunday, Nov. 17

Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak, possibly beginning in the morning in the western part of the threat area. Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes in east IA, south WI, lower peninsula of MI, IN, IL, OH, west NY, west PA, western WV, KY, TN, north AL, north half MS, northeast LA,l east AR, east MO. TOR:CON - 6 IL, IN; 5 south MI; 3 to 4 much of the rest of the severe area.

TOR:CON details:

AL north - 3

AR east - 3 to 4 morning, early afternoon

IA - 4 morning

IL - 6 morning, early afternoon

IN - 6


KY - 3 to 4

MI south - 5

MI north lower - 4

MO east - 3 to 4 morning, early afternoon

MS north half - 3

LA northeast - 3

NY west - 2 to 3

OH - 3 to 4

PA west - 2 to 3

TN - 3 to 4

WI south - 3 morning

WV west - 2 to 3

other areas - 1 or less

Sunday Night, Nov. 17-18

Thunderstorms diminish but strong gusts may persist ahead of and with the cold front across NY, PA, WV, MD, NJ. TOR:CON - less than 2

Monday, Nov. 18

Strong wind gusts in New England, mostly without thunderstorms. TOR:CON - less than 2.
[link to www.weather.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:44 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 1 min
Winds will be howling as the Chicago Bears host the Baltimore Ravens Sunday afternoon [link to www.accuweather.com]
Anonymous Coward
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11/16/2013 12:46 PM
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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
November 17 Potential Severe Weather Outbreak By Andrew at 5:09 PM There is potential for a severe weather outbreak this weekend, as an amplified storm system traverses the Plains, leading to an enhanced jet stream and an opportunity for a potentially significant squall line. The image above shows the jet stream wind speed projection for Sunday evening. I drew in the black line to show the tilt of the storm system, which should be negatively-tilted for this event. The negative tilt matters in this situation, as negatively-tilted storms tend to produce more "intense" severe weather events than positively-tilted storm systems (which involve the storm pushing to the southwest). The jet stream should be absolutely screaming when this event begins, with the NAM forecast above maxing out above 110 knots. The active jet stream will lead to this event being maximized in the severity, in terms that whatever severe weather that occurs on Sunday should be of decent significance (i.e. damaging winds and possibly a tornado). Simulated reflectivity projections from the NAM model indicate that a strong squall line should stretch from Ohio to the western tip of Tennessee by the evening hours on Sunday. Per hodographs from immediately out ahead of the squall line, any convection that forms before the squall line pushes through may be tornadic. In the same fashion, if the squall line itself is more of a coagulation of individual cells rather than a line of storms, there is a raised potential of tornadoes. At the time, storm motion (storm speed) around 50-60 knots to the east-northeast tells me that this will certainly be a big damaging wind threat. Lower level winds just 5000' off the ground will be over 60 knots, and if these winds translate to the surface, we could see a large-scale damaging wind event over the Ohio Valley. - See more at: [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
 Quoting: Luisport


It's coming right for me. ahhh

thanks again for the heads up

hf
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:47 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
Expanded the Moderate risk towards the east to include more of Illinois. SPC also sounds more confident that there could be a rather significant tornado threat. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN IL...EXTREME
SERN WI...SRN LOWER MI...OH...INDIANA...AND NRN KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/ SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN US IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGS SEWD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS IT LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...AN INTENSE DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
IA TOWARD ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY AND PROGRESS INTO ERN
ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC AT NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARC SWD
FROM THE LOW WITH THE NRN PART OF THE FRONT ACCELERATING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SRN PART OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAG
SWWD...REACHING AN ERN LOWER MI/SRN INDIANA/CENTRAL AR/NRN TX LINE
BY 18/00Z...AND ERN NY/NRN VA/WRN NC/NRN GA AND LOWER MS VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...
OVERNIGHT STORMS MAY BE CONTINUING FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY SWWD
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN A
MORE LIMITED SEVERE THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS
IT SHIFTS EWD/NEWD WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF THIS
AREA...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON FROM ERN IA INTO PARTS OF
NRN/CENTRAL IL...THEN SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD TOWARD THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
WITH 60-65F DEW POINTS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS NRN PARTS OF IL AND
INDIANA. A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND EWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF IL AND INDIANA. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MID/LATE MORNING OVER PARTS OF ERN IA NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW AND ADVANCING COLD FRONT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
INTO NRN/CENTRAL IL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
OVERSPREADS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOCKWISE TURNING
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG VEERING
WIND PROFILES. SEVERAL 12Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS /ESPECIALLY
THE 4 KM WRF-NSSL AND 1.3 KM NAM FIRE NEST/ INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF IL/INDIANA
AND SRN LOWER MI ALONG/AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST EWD SURGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THESE WILL HAVE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING TO PRODUCE SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/.
WITH TIME...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO BOWING LINEAR
STRUCTURES AND SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING
TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FAST-MOVING
LINES WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY INTO LESSER INSTABILITY...HOWEVER
VERTICAL TRANSFER OF STRONG HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE MAY
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

..WEISS.. 11/16/2013 [link to www.spc.noaa.gov] [link to www.spc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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11/16/2013 12:49 PM
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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
From what I'm understanding whether we get an actual tornado or not is a moot point because we're going to see widespread, long duration wind speeds equivalent to an EF1 tornado regardless.
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:49 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
From what I'm understanding whether we get an actual tornado or not is a moot point because we're going to see widespread, long duration wind speeds equivalent to an EF1 tornado regardless.
 Quoting: Melrox


Yes... derecho events are very dangerous!
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:56 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOCKWISE TURNING
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG VEERING
WIND PROFILES. SEVERAL 12Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS /ESPECIALLY
THE 4 KM WRF-NSSL AND 1.3 KM NAM FIRE NEST/ INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF IL/INDIANA
AND SRN LOWER MI ALONG/AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST EWD SURGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THESE WILL HAVE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING TO PRODUCE SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/.
WITH TIME...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO BOWING LINEAR
STRUCTURES AND SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING
TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FAST-MOVING
LINES WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY INTO LESSER INSTABILITY...HOWEVER
VERTICAL TRANSFER OF STRONG HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE MAY
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
Luisport (OP)

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11/16/2013 12:57 PM

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Re: Strong, potentially damaging winds to impact the Northeast today!!! 6th death has been confirmed in IL!!!
I should add that the tropical system moving into Mexico could add moisture to this system. [link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

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