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Anonymous Coward User ID: 74444 United States 08/15/2012 02:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | But won't there just be new predictions you latch on to after 2012? That's been your pattern before. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74444 When Doom fails to materialize by the end of the year, do you really think the Farsight Institute will cease making EOTW videos and dire predictions? Really? And hadn't you already decided Clif was full off doo doo? So I ask again, What is the qualitative difference in waiting until 2013? What will make the evidence compelling THEN that isn't compelling NOW? The end of the Mayan calendar is the pinnacle of all DOOM There are a gazillion videos, books, and predictions for this time that go back 30 years or more. Until we are WELL into 2013, and everything is "normal", I cannot begin to "relax". Besides, that "just" encompasses "astral" or "cyclic" DOOM. We're not even discussing economic collapse doom, or WWIII doom, or environmental degradation doom or over-population/famine doom. Take your pick! So even if we get past all the "Astral" Doom, you will still be latching onto and touting other Doom on this thread, no matter that it fails to materialize. Is that correct? You should get a patent on your probing "questionator" - that slices, dices and makes julian fries out of the same potato! I don't understand what you are saying here, but it certainly didn't answer my question. If we get past all the "Astral" Doom, will you still be latching onto and touting other Doom on this thread, no matter that it fails to materialize? Is that a correct summation of your position? |
Dr. Astro Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 4211721 United States 08/15/2012 03:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
**ZetaMax** User ID: 659599 United States 08/15/2012 03:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Dr. Astro Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 4211721 United States 08/15/2012 03:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | >> Thanks for your admission though. I guess your scope doesn't pick up the rogue planet SARCASM. I guess you thought you could retroactively paint your admission as sarcasm. Your retro thrusters have failed, you're just stuck orbiting your rogue planet, maxi. |
More about Tunnel-vision User ID: 22025857 Italy 08/15/2012 04:45 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Please remember this if Obama announces the presence of Planet X: Dr. Astro insists Planet X is not real. Circuit Breaker insists Planet X is not real. So neither of them can say squat about Planet X after an official announcement! They cannot say that the Planet X announced is real but the Planet X being discussed for so long is not. Cannot have it both ways. That would be dishonest. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1641673 ARE you Astrogal 50? Yup, she indirectly just confirmed by setting her profile as private: [link to poleshift.ning.com] Nice move gal! Got to hide something? |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 4832919 United States 08/15/2012 05:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Circuit Breaker User ID: 21705985 United States 08/15/2012 08:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Circuit Breaker User ID: 21705985 United States 08/15/2012 08:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Circuit Breaker User ID: 21705985 United States 08/15/2012 08:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Circuit Breaker User ID: 21705985 United States 08/15/2012 08:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You should get a patent on your probing "questionator" - that slices, dices and makes julian fries out of the same potato! Quoting: **ZetaMax** You should get a patent for your "answerinator" - that spews the same bullshit over and over no matter what you put in it. A voice of reason in a world of woo-woos. |
Circuit Breaker User ID: 21705985 United States 08/15/2012 08:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yup, she indirectly just confirmed by setting her profile as private: Quoting: More about Tunnel-vision 22025857 [link to poleshift.ning.com] Nice move gal! Got to hide something? Smooth move Astrogal50. Let us know when Obama tells the world about "Planet X." A voice of reason in a world of woo-woos. |
Truther User ID: 22061586 Germany 08/16/2012 07:15 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Truther User ID: 22061586 Germany 08/16/2012 07:15 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Circuit Breaker User ID: 21705985 United States 08/16/2012 07:26 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
**ZetaMax** User ID: 22038540 United States 08/16/2012 07:38 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Circuit Breaker User ID: 21705985 United States 08/16/2012 09:10 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
**ZetaMax** User ID: 22038540 United States 08/16/2012 09:19 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | >> And because you found it on the Internet, it must be true. It doesn't mean it MUST be false! Last Edited by **ZetaMax** on 08/16/2012 09:24 AM |
More about Tunnel-vision User ID: 22085773 Italy 08/16/2012 05:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
More about Tunnel-vision User ID: 22085773 Italy 08/16/2012 05:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
More about Tunnel-vision User ID: 22085773 Italy 08/16/2012 07:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Sweet, Flareberto switched back to one floppy at a time: [link to poleshift.ning.com] BTW: The title first changed from: At noon 2012/08/16 to "The Sun, at 12 'o' Clock High 2012/08/16. PX MoonSwirl Orbs, Wafting High Also." by the infamous Nancy LIEder herself. BTW²: Did you know that a lot of Moderators are posing Questions to the weekly Q&A? (After getting in accordance with Nancy on the admin Ning) Now you know... and Im amazed at the tunnel-vision of some of the Mods. They just ignore the disconfirmation and still think they're talking to aliens... Poor guys. I may need to reveal another thing or two...soon. |
**ZetaMax** User ID: 659599 United States 08/16/2012 07:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | And because you found it on the Internet, it must be true. LMAO. When I saw his posting earlier I was looking for this exact image... "Widely"... not even 1%... Wouldn't you rather have used THIS one? Last Edited by **ZetaMax** on 08/16/2012 07:43 PM |
Circuit Breaker User ID: 21705985 United States 08/16/2012 09:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
**ZetaMax** User ID: 659599 United States 08/16/2012 09:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Last Edited by **ZetaMax** on 08/16/2012 09:13 PM |
Circuit Breaker User ID: 21705985 United States 08/16/2012 09:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Sorry if the truth hurts a little. Last Edited by Circuit Breaker on 08/16/2012 09:28 PM A voice of reason in a world of woo-woos. |
MatrixLNIN11 User ID: 21310346 United States 08/17/2012 03:54 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 3 of 3 God Code Matrix Video's AGREE [link to www.youtube.com] 4 seals the deal Stanley was definitely onto something... that is until the same group that killed Harrington got to him he he |
MatrixLNIN11 User ID: 21310346 United States 08/17/2012 03:58 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I **DID** take High School Physics!! Come on, you SHILLS have all my transcripts right there in a drop down menu. Don't be LAZY. Quoting: **ZetaMax** Wow! High school physics and that makes you an expert how? I don't see this drop down menu you speak of...perhaps you'd like to come over and show me where it is. You must have skipped class that day. |
MatrixLNIN11 User ID: 21310346 United States 08/17/2012 04:01 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Well, you shouldn`t enjoy your drinks so fast Maxwell. I dont speak of Sitchin`s orbit, Im talking about the orbit Harrington had in mind. Perhaps you should inform yourself about the meaning of the term inner solar system which ends with Jupiter. Quoting: Truther 21874109 The oribt Harrington shows in his model could perhaps bring it close to the orbit of Neptun or Pluto, which are definitely no part of the inner solar system. But even this orbit shows the hyphothetical model of a planet which is a part of the kuiper belt and not of the inner solar system. So enjoy yourd drinks slowly Maxwell and watch it again. So you can lean back, relax and have a nice day with your drinks. I only hope you dont see this orbit twice after enjoying to many drinks. And again there is no reason to worry about Nancy Lieder`s lies. Besides that Astromut already explained you that Harrington was working with a model of the past. Please inform yourself better about astronomic terms before you get confused so easily, Maxwell. And again it looks like you missed the emergency exit, Maxwell. Don`t forget to watch the right orbit this time. >> The oribt Harrington shows in his model could perhaps bring it close to the orbit of Neptun or Pluto, which are definitely no part of the inner solar system. Harrington clearly was onboard with PX sending Uranus on it's side. SO - either Uranus drifted OUT or PX INTRUDES farther in than you are allowing for. Also, Harrginton drew his "orbit" with his FINGER - in "invisible" ink. Hardly a "precise" depiction. |
MatrixLNIN11 User ID: 21310346 United States 08/17/2012 04:04 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You never did answer the question about whether Standish's "magical mass" fixed Pluto's perturbed orbit as well? Quoting: **ZetaMax** It's not magical, and for Pluto we have a much smaller arc of observations over a much larger orbit, thus our orbital determination still contains a modest amount of uncertainty which contributes to the current residuals. The situation is analogous to any given asteroid shortly after discovery. The initial "condition code" is higher than 1 for quite a while because there has only been a short span of time to observe the asteroid and only a small part of its orbital arc has been observed. Correcting Neptune's mass has drastically reduced the residuals of Pluto, however. In the 60's, before Neptune's mass was corrected, the average residual for the observation set with the lowest standard deviation was about half an arcsecond (500 milliarcseconds). The standard deviation (1 sigma) for residuals in Pluto's position was generally around an arcsecond or so. [link to articles.adsabs.harvard.edu] Thanks to the revised mass of Neptune as well as more observations and more accurate CCD measurement, we have currently reduced the standard deviation of the residuals to about 500 milliarcseconds (half an arcsecond) when using optical observations to determine its position, and that's with all the data taken together, with a mean residual of about 34 milliarcseconds in right ascension and 24 milliarcseconds in declination [link to arxiv.org] The standard deviation is within the root-mean-square error of the orbit itself. [link to www.minorplanetcenter.net] In other words, the actual average for the residuals is virtually non-existent and the uncertainty itself is driven by uncertainty in the orbit of Pluto, which itself is driven by the limited length of time we've had to observe pluto. The "fudge factor" is highly relative. Tolerances are far less important for cutting firewood, than for grinding optical lenses. Because of the great distances, and significant mass sizes of the outer planets we're dealing with, and given your point about "the limited length of time we've had to observe pluto", it's pretty clear the "tolerances" currently accepted, are still - even with modern technology - pretty FORGIVING. In other words, you adjust the mass of Neptune, and suddenly the math "works". Well you could just as easily adjust the orbital period (for example) by a few hours and it wouldn't surprise me if the "math works". Now of course I am choosing orbital period as a random variable - and I am not saying that adjusting that one variable "will" make the math work, so don't come back and crow about how adjusting the oribital period won't make the math work ... I GET IT. BUT - there are numerous variables, and tweaking one or more can result in whatever "result" you'd be looking for. Bottom line - when it comes to the outer planets, it's clear we're still NOOBS to a very large (and for proud scientists) "uncomfortable" extent, and given our dependance on NASA for data, and relative limited ability to verify this data independantly, I cannot rule out the possibility - even likelihood - that the data is being "sampled" (given the range of tolerances) to create the desired result; which of course is not very scientific. (There are numerous examples of "scientists" outright FAKING data for political or monetary motives - why should NASA scientists be "above suspicion"?) And because the change is so relatively SMALL (0.5 percent for Neptune) - I have no problem accepting that the numbers you say you've run gave you the result YOU find "satisfactory". I don't find it CONCLUSIVE. |
MatrixLNIN11 User ID: 21310346 United States 08/17/2012 04:06 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: Dr. Astro It's not magical, and for Pluto we have a much smaller arc of observations over a much larger orbit, thus our orbital determination still contains a modest amount of uncertainty which contributes to the current residuals. The situation is analogous to any given asteroid shortly after discovery. The initial "condition code" is higher than 1 for quite a while because there has only been a short span of time to observe the asteroid and only a small part of its orbital arc has been observed. Correcting Neptune's mass has drastically reduced the residuals of Pluto, however. In the 60's, before Neptune's mass was corrected, the average residual for the observation set with the lowest standard deviation was about half an arcsecond (500 milliarcseconds). The standard deviation (1 sigma) for residuals in Pluto's position was generally around an arcsecond or so. [link to articles.adsabs.harvard.edu] Thanks to the revised mass of Neptune as well as more observations and more accurate CCD measurement, we have currently reduced the standard deviation of the residuals to about 500 milliarcseconds (half an arcsecond) when using optical observations to determine its position, and that's with all the data taken together, with a mean residual of about 34 milliarcseconds in right ascension and 24 milliarcseconds in declination [link to arxiv.org] The standard deviation is within the root-mean-square error of the orbit itself. [link to www.minorplanetcenter.net] In other words, the actual average for the residuals is virtually non-existent and the uncertainty itself is driven by uncertainty in the orbit of Pluto, which itself is driven by the limited length of time we've had to observe pluto. The "fudge factor" is highly relative. Tolerances are far less important for cutting firewood, than for grinding optical lenses. Because of the great distances, and significant mass sizes of the outer planets we're dealing with, and given your point about "the limited length of time we've had to observe pluto", it's pretty clear the "tolerances" currently accepted, are still - even with modern technology - pretty FORGIVING. Sure, if you're talking about pluto. That's a pointless and arbitrary goalpost you set up. It's your sad attempt at deflection from the fact that the perturbations thought to be seen in neptune and uranus were indeed accounted for by an inaccurate mass figure for neptune and ultimately not by "planet x." In other words, you adjust the mass of Neptune, and suddenly the math "works". Well you could just as easily adjust the orbital period (for example) by a few hours and it wouldn't surprise me if the "math works". Quoting: maxWrong. If the problem were with the elements themselves, and were solvable as such, then curve fitting the orbit to the observations would have fixed it. It would have been a trivial problem, but that's not where the problem was, so that was not a valid solution. I GET IT. Quoting: maxNo, you do not get it. I don't find it CONCLUSIVE. Quoting: maxNot my problem, you have serious issues if you think you somehow "won." You lost, badly. Of course your friends are too stupid to understand that, which seems to be what you're counting on. How sad for you that you depend on the stupidity of those who read your posts. >> It's your sad attempt at deflection from the fact that the perturbations thought to be seen in neptune and uranus were indeed accounted for by an inaccurate mass figure for neptune and ultimately not by "planet x." Explain this brainiac: Harrington not only postulated Planet X in an attempt to account for the perturbations of Uranus and Neptune, but found it necessary to place the orbit of PX at a 32 degree inclination from the ecliptic. [link to articles.adsabs.harvard.edu] How in the world does a mere 0.5 adjustment in the mass of neptune "forgive" the need for a gravitational force at a 32 degree inclination from the ecliptic??? The observed perturbation is real, it's the explanation for it that we're debating. Are you suggesting that the mere planetoid pluto ALONE accounts for this???? I can see Harrington LAUGHING at the mere suggestion!!! |
MatrixLNIN11 User ID: 21310346 United States 08/17/2012 04:09 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: Dr. Astro Sure, if you're talking about pluto. That's a pointless and arbitrary goalpost you set up. It's your sad attempt at deflection from the fact that the perturbations thought to be seen in neptune and uranus were indeed accounted for by an inaccurate mass figure for neptune and ultimately not by "planet x." ... Wrong. If the problem were with the elements themselves, and were solvable as such, then curve fitting the orbit to the observations would have fixed it. It would have been a trivial problem, but that's not where the problem was, so that was not a valid solution. ... No, you do not get it. ... Not my problem, you have serious issues if you think you somehow "won." You lost, badly. Of course your friends are too stupid to understand that, which seems to be what you're counting on. How sad for you that you depend on the stupidity of those who read your posts. >> It's your sad attempt at deflection from the fact that the perturbations thought to be seen in neptune and uranus were indeed accounted for by an inaccurate mass figure for neptune and ultimately not by "planet x." Explain this brainiac: Harrington not only postulated Planet X in an attempt to account for the perturbations of Uranus and Neptune, but found it necessary to place the orbit of PX at a 32 degree inclination from the ecliptic. So what? It was a forced solution and it failed to predict future behavior. It was wrong. Get over it. The correct solution was to have correct mass values (which again, actually involved making corrections to all of the outer planets, most significantly to Neptune). Trying to fit the same data to a false explanation of an additional planet will of course yield bizarre results, including for inclination, and ultimately will fail to predict future behavior properly. Your entire argument boils down to a logical fallacy of an argument from ignorance. You seem to think you just "intuit" the inclination of a hypothetical planet that could temporarily account for residuals in observations compared to the orbit determination that are actually caused by inadequately accurate mass figures. The calculations involved are not trivial things you can just make assumptions about like that, the arrogance and ignorance in doing so even after independent validation has taken place is astounding. You live in denial simply because the actual results do not agree with your ignorance pre-conceived notions. Are you suggesting that the mere planetoid pluto ALONE accounts for this???? I can see Harrington LAUGHING at the mere suggestion!!! Quoting: maxAt no time did I say anything that could even allow you to think that. Congratulations, you once again proved your supreme ignorance. >> It was a forced solution Indeed, and we can be CERTAIN that Standish's solution (Harrington had access to the same Voyager data) as VERIFIED by no less an astronomical giant than :mutlogo: with his 8 inch scope and laptop, was "not" forced. We KNOW this because :mutlogo: says so! >> The calculations involved are not trivial things you can just make assumptions about Since they are "not trivial", they can't be easily verified ... CAN THEY? >> even after independent validation has taken place YOUR INDEPENDANT VALIDATION!!! After you just got done saying they weren't "trivial"! >> a logical fallacy of an argument from ignorance. TRUST ME, I'M A "SCIENTIST!!!" ... a tale told by an idiot (no, SHILL), full of sound and fury, signifying nothing SOOO I guess Tombaugh's discovery of Pluto which he spent a year searching for, was nothing more than an AMAZING occurrence of PURE DUMB LUCK, because, given Pluto's size and Harrington saying that because of it's tiny size, could have NO discernable effect on the orbits of Uranus and Neptune meant Tombaugh, searching BECAUSE of "phantom pertubances" (due to incorrect mass figures) - and then actually finding "pluto" is an amazingly FANTASTIC co-incidence!!! |