Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55 | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 3519980 New Zealand 10/28/2011 09:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
TBar1984 User ID: 1537588 United States 10/28/2011 10:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I independently determined the orbit of 2005 YU55 using nothing but observations from amateur astronomers. The result shows a slightly closer approach than when professional data is included, but it still passes us almost just as far away, at a safe distance of about ~242,528 km. It misses the moon according to this orbit by ~165,230 km. Quoting: Astromut Even the amateur data shows that earth is safe... for now ;). Yes, eventually some damaging rock will hit earth again, but not this one, at least not in our lifetime. Nonetheless, we should remain vigilant. Unfortunately, 2005 YU55 won't be close enough to be visible to the naked eye, but it will put on a good show in telescopes. Provided the weather allows for it, I will be broadcasting a live view of the asteroid's close approach here on GLP. It wasn't very nice of JPL to come out with a new report today...and change the Condition Code to 3 from 0. I don't like seeing that particular parameter grow larger. Still, a 3 is much better than an 8... [link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov] You might want to checkout what the Hogman said on Freedom Slips tonight. You will be hearing about it soon anyway. R.C. Hoagland just said he has 'inside info' that YU55 is 'off' track and will hit the Moon. Freedom Slips is repeating the 'Terral Show' right now, I don't know if they will repeat the Collision Course show, with Hoagland, in an hour or not; [link to www.freedomslips.com] Last Edited by TBar1984 on 10/28/2011 10:52 PM |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 4190768 United States 10/28/2011 10:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Any ideas as to what it is made of? Snip from article Arecibo radar observations of asteroid 2005 YU55 made in 2010 show it to be approximately spherical in shape. It is slowly spinning, with a rotation period of about 18 hours. The asteroid's surface is darker than charcoal at optical wavelengths. [link to www.jpl.nasa.gov] |
shadasonic User ID: 1507484 United States 10/28/2011 11:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I independently determined the orbit of 2005 YU55 using nothing but observations from amateur astronomers. The result shows a slightly closer approach than when professional data is included, but it still passes us almost just as far away, at a safe distance of about ~242,528 km. It misses the moon according to this orbit by ~165,230 km. Quoting: Astromut Even the amateur data shows that earth is safe... for now ;). Yes, eventually some damaging rock will hit earth again, but not this one, at least not in our lifetime. Nonetheless, we should remain vigilant. Unfortunately, 2005 YU55 won't be close enough to be visible to the naked eye, but it will put on a good show in telescopes. Provided the weather allows for it, I will be broadcasting a live view of the asteroid's close approach here on GLP. It wasn't very nice of JPL to come out with a new report today...and change the Condition Code to 3 from 0. I don't like seeing that particular parameter grow larger. Still, a 3 is much better than an 8... [link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov] You might want to checkout what the Hogman said on Freedom Slips tonight. You will be hearing about it soon anyway. R.C. Hoagland just said he has 'inside info' that YU55 is 'off' track and will hit the Moon. Freedom Slips is repeating the 'Terral Show' right now, I don't know if they will repeat the Collision Course show, with Hoagland, in an hour or not; [link to www.freedomslips.com] Hoagland is just getting horrible with these insider slips. Ten tears ago I somewhat listened with interest, now he is just trying to keep up with the other kooks. Thanks for the update ASTRO! “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
Astromut (OP) Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 922113 United States 10/28/2011 11:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You might want to checkout what the Hogman said on Freedom Slips tonight. You will be hearing about it soon anyway. R.C. Hoagland just said he has 'inside info' that YU55 is 'off' track and will hit the Moon. Quoting: TBar1984 Freedom Slips is repeating the 'Terral Show' right now, I don't know if they will repeat the Collision Course show, with Hoagland, in an hour or not; [link to www.freedomslips.com] Thanks for the update! Seems like my video was perfectly timed then. |
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my2centsworth User ID: 1307594 Canada 10/28/2011 11:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
KMartin User ID: 1491153 United States 10/28/2011 11:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I'll be going live at TWS too. Senior Meteorologist - Find my awesomeness on Facebook at [link to www.Facebook.com] |
TBar1984 User ID: 1537588 United States 10/28/2011 11:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You might want to checkout what the Hogman said on Freedom Slips tonight. You will be hearing about it soon anyway. R.C. Hoagland just said he has 'inside info' that YU55 is 'off' track and will hit the Moon. Quoting: TBar1984 Freedom Slips is repeating the 'Terral Show' right now, I don't know if they will repeat the Collision Course show, with Hoagland, in an hour or not; [link to www.freedomslips.com] Thanks for the update! Seems like my video was perfectly timed then. Yep, I'd say well timed. They are uploading the Hoagland section to YouTube now. Probably see it plastered all over the 'net shortly. Supposed to show up here; [link to www.youtube.com] Would it be alright to mirror your video on my site? Last Edited by TBar1984 on 10/28/2011 11:59 PM |
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Astromut (OP) Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 922113 United States 10/29/2011 12:05 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You might want to checkout what the Hogman said on Freedom Slips tonight. You will be hearing about it soon anyway. R.C. Hoagland just said he has 'inside info' that YU55 is 'off' track and will hit the Moon. Quoting: TBar1984 Freedom Slips is repeating the 'Terral Show' right now, I don't know if they will repeat the Collision Course show, with Hoagland, in an hour or not; [link to www.freedomslips.com] Thanks for the update! Seems like my video was perfectly timed then. Yep, I'd say well timed. They are uploading the Hoagland section to YouTube now. Probably see it plastered all over the 'net shortly. Supposed to show up here; [link to www.youtube.com] Would it be alright to mirror your video on my site? Hold off, I've got an update to make to it; I found data from two additional amateur observatories that I tossed in there. I came up with an even more accurate orbital solution as a result, and it now agrees with the official orbit to an even greater extent. I'm also generating uncertainty data to put into ORSA to visualize the "cone of uncertainty" during the time of close approach to see if it overlaps the moon at all or not. |
fellowearthling User ID: 4125882 New Zealand 10/29/2011 12:10 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I was about to ask what 'fudge' factor was, cheers Mut! "If you do not go within You WILL go without." A wiser man than I "Standing on truth Ensures eternal support." "There is a perfectly logical explanation for everything and a logically perfect everything for explanations." A phellow earthling |
Astromut (OP) Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 922113 United States 10/29/2011 12:10 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 718510 United States 10/29/2011 12:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | No, I computed the effect the asteroid would have on the moon's position earlier. The result was around 430 nanometers or so. Cool and very good info. This thread brings to mind another question, though. Mostly from a historical perspective, has there ever been a major impact to the moon that we were able to observe? I don't remember hearing of any. Hypothetically speaking, of something similar to this object did drive straight into the moon, what would that look like from Earth? Would it actually have any measureable effects to the moons orbit, or tidal influence, or anything? Fascinating stuff! |
Astromut (OP) Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 922113 United States 10/29/2011 12:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here's the link to the refined solution: [link to 2005yu55.jimdo.com] It includes two additional observatories' data, and is a bit more refined in terms of observation inclusion bringing the root mean square error down by about a third. It's now to about half an arcsecond on RMS, which is great. I'll be uploading a new video with the improved elements as well as the uncertainty cone of the resulting orbit shortly. |
Halcyon Dayz, FCD User ID: 1222987 Netherlands 10/29/2011 12:25 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Astromut (OP) Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 922113 United States 10/29/2011 12:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | No, I computed the effect the asteroid would have on the moon's position earlier. The result was around 430 nanometers or so. Cool and very good info. This thread brings to mind another question, though. Mostly from a historical perspective, has there ever been a major impact to the moon that we were able to observe? I don't remember hearing of any. Hypothetically speaking, of something similar to this object did drive straight into the moon, what would that look like from Earth? Would it actually have any measureable effects to the moons orbit, or tidal influence, or anything? Fascinating stuff! The moon's been hit by far larger objects throughout its history. More minor impacts are seen by amateurs all the time on the night side of the moon where you can see brief flashes from the collisions, but they're too small to form any noticeable new craters, at least as seen from earth. YU55 would probably make a detectable crater as seen from earth, that would be the most novel thing about it. |
Astromut (OP) Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 922113 United States 10/29/2011 12:29 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
TBar1984 User ID: 1537588 United States 10/29/2011 12:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here's the link to the refined solution: Quoting: Astromut [link to 2005yu55.jimdo.com] It includes two additional observatories' data, and is a bit more refined in terms of observation inclusion bringing the root mean square error down by about a third. It's now to about half an arcsecond on RMS, which is great. I'll be uploading a new video with the improved elements as well as the uncertainty cone of the resulting orbit shortly. Your position puts it 258,755 KM from Friday's JPL position. Not bad. Let me know when you get the New Video up. Using the solution from here [link to 2005yu55.jimdo.com] , Starry Night gives Earth CPA 171,975 km on 11/8/22:21GMT, Moon CPA 141,012 km on 11/9/06:28GMT Using the solution from here [link to 2005yu55.jimdo.com] , I get Earth CPA 231,375 km on 11/8/22:41GMT, Moon CPA 161,833 km on 11/9/06:39GMT Last Edited by TBar1984 on 10/29/2011 02:46 AM |
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Astromut (OP) Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 922113 United States 10/29/2011 02:33 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here's the refined solution with data from 2 additional amateur observatories incorporated, complete with uncertainty analysis at the end. There's no doubt about it, the asteroid will miss both the earth and the moon: For TBar, feel free to mirror: [link to www.youtube.com] Last Edited by Astromut on 10/29/2011 02:54 AM |
Joshua James User ID: 4222559 United States 10/29/2011 02:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Astromut (OP) Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 922113 United States 10/29/2011 02:51 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | That said, is it A) possible for a Florida boy to view it with a 4", and B) whens the best time? Quoting: Joshua James The night of November 8th will be best. Do we change daylight savings before then? I can't remember, they've changed the date too much. I practically think of everything in terms of GMT time now anyway. Anyway, anytime after it gets dark but before midnight, and really even a while thereafter, will be the best time to view it. It's going to be moving really, really fast compared to other asteroids you might look for, so spotting it without goto will be hard. As for whether your scope can see it or not, theoretically yes it can based on the size. I'm assuming you live in a place in Florida that is not under particularly pristine skies, zenith limiting magnitude 4 or thereabouts and that you're using a low magnification eyepiece to find it. If that's true, you'll only be able to see it that night during the time of peak brightness and it'll be very dim; you would have to be using averted vision and even then you would only just barely see it. Last Edited by Astromut on 10/29/2011 02:53 AM |
Joshua James User ID: 4222559 United States 10/29/2011 02:56 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | That said, is it A) possible for a Florida boy to view it with a 4", and B) whens the best time? Quoting: Joshua James The night of November 8th will be best. Do we change daylight savings before then? I can't remember, they've changed the date too much. I practically think of everything in terms of GMT time now anyway. Anyway, anytime after it gets dark but before midnight, and really even a while thereafter, will be the best time to view it. It's going to be moving really, really fast compared to other asteroids you might look for, so spotting it without goto will be hard. As for whether your scope can see it or not, theoretically yes it can based on the size. I'm assuming you live in a place in Florida that is not under particularly pristine skies, zenith limiting magnitude 4 or thereabouts and that you're using a low magnification eyepiece to find it. If that's true, you'll only be able to see it that night during the time of peak brightness and it'll be very dim; you would have to be using averted vision and even then you would only just barely see it. Okay. I'm probably better off using a good set of binoculars then. Thanks again, peace! Keep up the good work broski! |