**BROKEN NEWS!**BP containment "Top Hat" Delayed, set back, failed, shit the bed...wtf eva

Experts?

That say scientists are wrong but refuse to take on a GLP poster with even higher numbers than the scientists that put out the new figures...

This is what pisses me off about debunkers, you hit them with certain evidence and they call you names instead of proving their side..

I'll spell it out for you: the key words to contemplate are simplistic model.

But never mind...

What pisses me off is someone like you misquoting scientists... You'd make a journalist for FOX news...

Pfffft! I've been saying this all along! Just not tracking with your reasoning on it is all.
I think we've fucked ourselves royally with this one... Maybe not an ELE, but it's going to get real ugly. Even if they stopped the flow today, the damage is already beyond "fixing", imo.

And personally, no... I'm not a roughneck. Ladies didn't do that sort of work back then, but most of the men in my family certainly did... Many still do in one capacity or another. They claim if you're born in "The Patch" half your blood is crude. ;)

<note to self: trolls are Not nice pets_ Don't Feed Them!>

Last Edited by SouthernLight on 05/14/2010 02:45 AM

Well by Craps lowest figure would be

166,765,488 gallons already spilled...

You say 15,750,000

Lowest possible figure?
Why?

Your number is 151 million gallons less than his

No people should know exactly what they are dealing with...

And if CRAP is right, that is a whole different ballgame than yours...

We need full disclosure on this, this could be unrecoverable, and it is only 24 days old

What pisses me off is people claiming they are experts, showing 0 evidence of their findings and shooting down scientists...

I did not ever misquote scientists..

I quoted the article multiple times...

And this is not a simplistic model...

Please check his accuracy, check his numbers and do your own math...

You said you do this for a living...

VARIABLES
Depth: 9,754 meters (from seafloor to oil reserve)
Temp: 633*K (360*C) basic average for 35,000 feet below sea level. Calculations were done at room temp with little difference.
Pressure at pipe start: 15,000 to 70,000 psi potential. 15,000 psi is used to ensure flow is at least that much considering fluctuations. These pressures were quoted directly from BP.
Pressure at pipe end: 2,000 psi at sea floor.
Drilled Diameter: 215mm, the smallest bit size possible. The range of sizes go from 21.5cm to 91.4cm
Oil Density: 920 kg/m3

RESULTS
Velocity at pipe start: 1.118 meter/sec
Velocity at pipe end: 8.385 meter/sec

Volumetric Flow at pipe start: 38,603.12 gal/h
Volumetric Flow at pipe end: 289,523.44 gal/h

Volumetric Flow Rate: 1.700313E+007 gph US
....... 17,003,130 gph US (408,075,120 gal/day US)
Mass Flow Rate: 1.30546456E+008 lbs/h
....... 130,546,456 lbs/h (3,133,114,944 lbs/day)

After some reading up on the calculator used, it says the Volumetric Flow Rate is based on standard conditions. I am not sure what is implied. However, the Volumetric Flow at Pipe End can be considered a better figure as the definition of that result is under the given pressures punched in. Sooooooo, to make a long thread short, I must believe the Volumetric Flow at Pipe End is a better result to look at then the Volumetric Flow Rate.

Had I noticed this earlier I would have used the lesser of the two.

So now, looking at the Volumetric Flow at Pipe End, it shows a flow of 6,948,562.56 gal/day or 165,441 barrel/day.

I have to correct the post and title. This figure makes a lot more sense to me. And yes, I may have been wrong. But the math, calculator and variables are correct still. We have been reading the wrong results, possibly. I still need to find out what this calculator means with the Volumetric Flow Rate, not the Volumetric FLow Rate at Pipe End.

So here are the new statistics...
Minimal Flow Potential: 165,441 bbl/day, 6.95 million gal/day
Maximum Flow Potential: 907,619 bbl/day, 38.12 million gal/day

Lost Driller guy totally?

Well I see we are having a spirited discussion....fighting...terms are subjective aren't they.....ROFL!!!!...but all this is good.....people should be passionate and involved in this...and there is much disinformation coming from many sources...so we must be able to discern for ourselves and be armed with facts to do so...check everything...know what is real and what is not..."fall" for nothing, know better...and be one of the people that can cut through the fog....and hopefully light the way for others....

You quoted an article's spin because it suits you. And you didnt even bother to read what the scientists themselves said right in the article. And you continue to blindly make up statements they didnt make themselves!. lol,,,,

Grow up.

And I'm sorry you think an oil spill 1 1/2 times worse than Valdez doesnt turn you on enough,,,,

Well I dont know who to believe period..

The lack of MSM coverage has me freaked out...

Then you have scientists, astrophysicist and oceanographer give you big numbers and they are shot down...

Then you take Craps post...

That is worse than frightening...

I really, REALLY want someone to show some BIG mistake he made..

Because even if he is 50% off we ar still looking at 87 million gallons of oil...

That is absolutely unrecoverable...

And yes, sorry, I get spirited, I have children and the absolute true possibilities scare the living shit out of me...

Not afraid to die, but I dont want it to be slow and painful either..

Bottom line is we have a MASSIVE disaster and its far, far from over..

This whole thing just sucks...

ELE you just don't know it yet.

Tomorrow's a school day you know ;)

Because I am optimistic and the data is lacking. And frankly I dont want it to be worse. What's your excuse?

Its not about getting turned on..

Its about a ecological catastrophe and a Extinction Level Event...

And no we arent there, YET...

But if this is coming out like CRAP says it is, 3-9 months = goodnight, game over...

The very last thing I want is doom, but if its real, I dont want it hidden from me, thats not fair as a human being on earth...

Truth is, no man is any better than the next...

Well except criminals of course...But all law abiding good people of earth should have the same rights to know as the people in high office if it effects the whole world...

And no, I did not misquote those scientists, I posted the whole article multiple times...

I did highlight their findings within the article but also highlighted the part that said what you were talking about it not being able to determine exactly how much oil and how much gas...The article also said it was gas for a few seconds and then it was mostly oil...BP said it just switched from more oil to more gas like 2 days ago...

But that is why there was a 20% differential put into play within the results..

One said 50,000 - 80,000
One said 20,000 - 100,000
One said 50,000+
One says minimum of 26,000 off of a flyover of the spill days after it happened..

All I am saying is that is WAY off official numbers...


And if CRAP is right, pffffff

I want to know the truth...

I was optimistic...I sat here at my pc all day waiting to hear if this top hat was going to work...

Nope it didnt...Like the last fix, and the fix before that...

And now they are talking about shooting goldballs and tires into it....

That seems like they are really grasping at straws...Like they have no clue what to do...

They have the top scientists and engineers in the world helping them right now and we are 24 days in with some staggering numbers being put together...

These people know what they are doing, and are getting nowhere...

Huge methane leak is no good
Huge oil leak is no good...

I am frustrated and stressed out...

I want them to fix it and fix it now

Again you misquote the scientists regarding the video: they estimated a rate of flow of an effluent whose composition they do NOT know. IOW their numbers do NOT reflect the flow rate of oil, which obviously is less than the figures they mention. They will not say what the oil spillage rate is UNTIL they do know what the composition is of what is coming out. So ANYONE saying or insinuating the amount of oil being spilled is greater than previous estimates or equivalent to the flow rate these scientists mention are being misleading at best,,,

It's been 24 days already? Ooops,my previous estimate has to be bumped up to 24 days plus 10 days to "arrest pressure"...

That's 22,055,000 gallons. Damn! 2x Valdez...

Either way, oil or gas, its horrible...

Methane gas = Very scary potential
Oil = Ecological and environmental catastrophe

I almost think it might be better to have the oil than the gas...

That is ALOT of both coming out, period...

I agree noone knows and we have to rely on professional opinions...And they are very credible professionals...Cant always believe the Govt NOAA response...

There is alot at stake here, politically, policy wise and BP, Haliburton, TransOceans names are toast...

There is definitely some reason we arent hearing the real numbers...NOAA should know better than anyone...

But this is what I said before, this is no hoax, its all too real, no way you could get that many people one the same page to pull off some huge depopulation or some crazy shit that keeps getting posted...

So to me, I think its a little of both, political/policy and also that the magnitude and potential of this are truly overwhelming...

I did say they couldnt tell which was oil and which was gas..

I am not misquoting, your not reading right

Fine.

What HAS happened is not what the real worry is...and yes there will always be an agenda to one side or another, this always happens...I can tell you this...some of the extreme numbers are taken as an overall "flow rate" of fluid...not all of that is going to be oil....so while Dr doom over here says the breech is blasting out 70,000 barrels a day?...realize that is 70k barrels of "mixed fluid"...gas is a fluid btw...and they also have a pretty wide margin of error.,..as well as possibly a vested interest in fear mongering to progress their own agenda...

Don't give up hope...we aren't there yet...we are still at the recoverable stage...

Im not giving up, not yet at least...

Its just very frightening and the outcome either way cant be good...

But either way gas or oil...Both are a very bad thing...

I guess what I would hope is that there is more oil than gas and the official numbers be closer to real numbers...

Still horrible but much better than thinking 10 valdez or thinking a very high output of methane...

I have my fingers and toes crossed but after watch BP exec this morning on CNN, it does not sound promising...

According to what we do know about the pressure and the rate at which it is decreasing, the well will lose sufficient pressure to overcome the pressure at the oceans floor in approximately 50 days. This is according to the best estimates we have available concerning the pressures being produced by the well when it blew out and now.
My previous prediction was based on faulty data provided by someone on this board.
The well is producing almost pure natural gas.

Actually, natural gas is not actually a liquid until it is crygenically cooled, but at these pressures it is exiting the well in a state that is very close to being a liquid.

BTW, I do not forsee a scenario where this well blowout will be arrested. It's totally out of control and there is no specific method I know of that can stop it at these depths and pressures. This well will continue to blowout until it ceases on its on.

Thanks AC900 for your input.

Think this guy's idea has any merit ?

[link to blog.al.com]