SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 11/26/2011 03:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I found a Solarsoft movie of the filament eruption and flare. Look at the bottom of frame and notice the filament disturbance before the flaring brightens. Quoting: Hugh M Eye [link to sdowww.lmsal.com] wow great one! here close up helioviewer : [link to helioviewer.org] Nice! You could clearly see stuff lifting off there. I'm still a little mystified why there was such a proton spike. We haven't seen that from the bigger filament eruptions or any of the recent CMEs. It may have something to do with the equatorial source and/or the velocity/shock-wave. This event may be positioned favorably to the Earth's magnetic footprint. The only Earth-Sun Connectivity graphic I could find is five days old. I don't usually follow this data on a regular basis, so pardon my ignorance. In this image the Earth's magnetic footprint is right over AR11354 which is directly below that filament. If you recall, some of that filament already lifted off a few days ago-the remainder caused this morning's CME. [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] My question is-does the Earth's footprint generally move across the disk along the same magnetic field lines? If so, then the eruption today was ideally located for maximum geo-effectiveness. Of course if they updated that graphic on a daily basis we'd have the answer...duh, LOL. rly i love you hugh! or better your knowledge, hehe^^ ISWA has an Alert now (CME from this morning) Event Issue Date: 2011-11-26 17:53:45.0 GMT CME Arrival Time: 2011-11-28 14:23:08.0 GMT [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] and have a look IswaCygnetStreamer: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 11/26/2011 05:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 November 2011 A long duration C1 flare was observed at 26/0710Z in conjunction with an eruptive filament channel near Region 1353 (N08W49). A full halo CME, first observed in C2 imagery at 26/0712Z, was also associated with this event. At around 26/0840Z, signatures from the ACE spacecraft indicated elevated levels of greater than 10 MeV protons. This increase was associated with the eruptive filament channel, CME, and C1 flare mentioned earlier. A greater than 10 MeV proton at geosynchronous orbit began at 26/1125Z. Max flux for this event, thus far, was 54 pfu at 26/2055Z. This proton event was still in progress when this report was issued. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels on day one (27 November). An increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor storm conditions is expected on days two and three (28-29 November). These elevated conditions are the result of the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective early on day two, and the arrival of today's full halo CME late on day two or early on day three. III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 90/10/01 [link to www.spaceref.com] |
aether User ID: 1412926 United Kingdom 11/26/2011 05:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1414904 United States 11/26/2011 07:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2159872 United States 11/26/2011 08:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 6078335 United States 11/26/2011 08:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hmm Solarham says the cme is not earth directed but Spaceweather says it is. Who's right? I think it's the most massive cme I've seen on the simulation. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1414904 Also what does the current radiation storm tell us about the cme? This should be a good head-to-head test of the two prediction models. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis system (iSWA/NASA) Cygnet Streamer shows arrival at Earth on 11/28 @approx. 15:00 UTC with more than a glancing shot. The new NOAA ENLIL CME SW model shows a near-miss or glancing blow on 11/30. Two very different looking models-we'll have to wait and see. SEEDS Movie of CME and shock-wave. [link to spaceweather.gmu.edu] SOHO C3 image from 10:06 UTC: [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] NOAA Proton Event ....WARNING-Persistence -for the next 12 hours! [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 11/26/2011 08:57 PM |
aether User ID: 1412926 United Kingdom 11/26/2011 08:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This should be a good head-to-head test of the two prediction models. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis system (iSWA/NASA) Cygnet Streamer shows arrival at Earth on 11/28 @approx. 15:00 UTC with more than a glancing shot. The new NOAA ENLIL CME SW model shows a near-miss or glancing blow on 11/30. Two very different looking models-we'll have to wait and see. Quoting: hughnice hugh |
Isis7 User ID: 5931253 United States 11/26/2011 09:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1517751 United States 11/26/2011 11:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1540313 United States 11/27/2011 12:05 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 6090449 United States 11/27/2011 01:38 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.space-travel.com] FLASHBACK: The most powerful proton storm ever recorded-January 20, 2005. [link to science.nasa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 11/27/2011 04:43 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2159872 United States 11/27/2011 05:07 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hmm Solarham says the cme is not earth directed but Spaceweather says it is. Who's right? I think it's the most massive cme I've seen on the simulation. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1414904 Also what does the current radiation storm tell us about the cme? This should be a good head-to-head test of the two prediction models. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis system (iSWA/NASA) Cygnet Streamer shows arrival at Earth on 11/28 @approx. 15:00 UTC with more than a glancing shot. The new NOAA ENLIL CME SW model shows a near-miss or glancing blow on 11/30. Two very different looking models-we'll have to wait and see. SEEDS Movie of CME and shock-wave. [link to spaceweather.gmu.edu] SOHO C3 image from 10:06 UTC: [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] NOAA Proton Event ....WARNING-Persistence -for the next 12 hours! [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Seems they have updated this to show the CME hitting earth [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 6064977 United States 11/27/2011 05:52 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 11/27/2011 09:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | of course it does. can one of the two smart dudes on here tell us in simple terms, what will happen. and can you fearful mice not chime in with dis info, thanx. okay a majority of the CME was directed to the west and away from Earth, however this full halo event does have a weaker Eastern flank which may still impact Earth within 48 hours While Earth does not appear to be in the path of the core CME,so it will be a flank impact :cmenov26: :latestcmenov2609: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] The partial halo CME associated with the filament eruption to the west of region 1353. The arrival of the corresponding ICME at the Earth is expected in the evening of November 28 till morning of November 29. Configurations of the photospheric magnetic field and post-eruptive arcade indicate that a possible magnetic cloud will most probably have left-handed chirality and will be inclined at around 45 degrees to the ecliptic plane, with southward interplanetary magnetic field in the leading part of the cloud. A major geomagnetic storm will be possible. Well, kevin has a rly good img of the cme cloud :expandingcmeClou: Enlarge [link to www.solarham.com] |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 6090449 United States 11/27/2011 09:43 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Serial Number: 1840 Issue Time: 2011 Nov 27 0744 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2011 Nov 27 0743 UTC Valid To: 2011 Nov 27 1500 UTC Warning Condition: Onset Also a 12 hour continuation of proton event persistence: Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1 Serial Number: 334 Issue Time: 2011 Nov 27 1138 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected Extension to Serial Number: 333 Valid From: 2011 Nov 26 1120 UTC Now Valid Until: 2011 Nov 28 0200 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Something may be knocking at the door. Don't ya hate when guests arrive early? [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Aother video look at yesyerday's CME from STEREO Ahead(Earth is to the left): [link to spaceweather.gmu.edu] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 11/27/2011 10:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hi back, we have a nice farside CME actually....(not earth directed) [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] :cmenov27: latest img STEREO AHEAD: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 5757371 United Kingdom 11/27/2011 10:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | bit of a heavy read The energetic storm particle event of October 20, 1989 [link to umbra.nascom.nasa.gov] [link to www.am.ub.es] enjoy |
learner User ID: 2565127 United States 11/27/2011 10:49 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | more on magfields: this link geomag.usgs.gov/intro.php leads to a 2008 .pdf titled "Magnetic monitoring of Earth and space". It goes into mag-sensor instrumentation, measurement history and shows a few study results. i took a screen shot of one page in particular. The image can be found here : [link to www.bigupload.com] it shows the daily variation in magfield strength (H component actually) from 5 different locations. Notice the largest change happens at equatorial latitudes... i wish they (these data) had been plotted according to a zero time base rather than normalized to 'local time'. and further that a proper amplitude scale were included: from this graph, it looks as if the field strength at the equator more than quadruples daily. i found the previous while locking into the nature of Sol's magfield. This article [link to science.nasa.gov] states that large proton storms happen (within minutes it turns out) after earth directed flares happen while the earth happens to be sitting in one of the sun's magfield spokes. this article [link to www-istp.gsfc.nasa.gov] explains the shape of the spokes in very simple terms. haven't found it yet, but i'm looking for data that describes the rate of rotation of these magfield spokes and possibly some measurement of their current location. it seems to me that if we knew when the earth was and was not inside one of these spokes, we'd be able to predict geomag responces to flares and CMEs better, no? more later... |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 11/27/2011 10:51 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | more on magfields: Quoting: learner 2565127 this link geomag.usgs.gov/intro.php leads to a 2008 .pdf titled "Magnetic monitoring of Earth and space". It goes into mag-sensor instrumentation, measurement history and shows a few study results. i took a screen shot of one page in particular. The image can be found here : [link to www.bigupload.com] it shows the daily variation in magfield strength (H component actually) from 5 different locations. Notice the largest change happens at equatorial latitudes... i wish they (these data) had been plotted according to a zero time base rather than normalized to 'local time'. and further that a proper amplitude scale were included: from this graph, it looks as if the field strength at the equator more than quadruples daily. i found the previous while locking into the nature of Sol's magfield. This article [link to science.nasa.gov] states that large proton storms happen (within minutes it turns out) after earth directed flares happen while the earth happens to be sitting in one of the sun's magfield spokes. this article [link to www-istp.gsfc.nasa.gov] explains the shape of the spokes in very simple terms. haven't found it yet, but i'm looking for data that describes the rate of rotation of these magfield spokes and possibly some measurement of their current location. it seems to me that if we knew when the earth was and was not inside one of these spokes, we'd be able to predict geomag responces to flares and CMEs better, no? more later... thx for the reminder thats a biggie STEREO A 15:24 [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 11/27/2011 11:31 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | the cme is farside but if you look closely something is heading in earth direction Stereo A Movie: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] :cmenov27: :cmenov271539: Enlarge [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] i checked also SDO and there is some rly cool activity will upload a movie soon |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1690780 Sweden 11/27/2011 11:32 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 11/27/2011 12:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 11/27/2011 12:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 5757371 United Kingdom 11/27/2011 02:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Haramein on the Sun [link to www.youtube.com] Earth Is Not Orbiting The Sun [link to www.youtube.com] |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 6114312 United States 11/27/2011 02:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to halpha.nso.edu] ACE Protons still high: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] GOES protons high but falling: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Tromso K-index at 4-Unsettled [link to flux.phys.uit.no] |
MamaHasAwakened User ID: 1515402 United States 11/27/2011 02:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 11/27/2011 02:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Interesting loop from GONG network shows a filament (located center-north) blown away by a flare from 1356 and then magnetically pulled back into its original position. Fascinating....had the flare been stronger the filament would've probably been shot into space. We'll have to watch and see how long it remains. Quoting: Hugh M Eye [link to halpha.nso.edu] ACE Protons still high: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] GOES protons high but falling: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Tromso K-index at 4-Unsettled [link to flux.phys.uit.no] mhh, this is rly crazy Hugh...and soon 1339 is in game^^ SDO from today shows some huge activity on this incoming site maybe i will upload it later or tommorow..u can clearly see a flare from that region Quoting: MamaHasAwakened your welcome and thx |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 6126891 United States 11/27/2011 05:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hey, great job as usual! The globs of sun-stuff seen in this STEREO A HI 2 image is evidently in the foreground between the ST. A spacecraft and the Earth. But stay alert as some of this is heading our soon. [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] No signs of any shock wave hitting us yet although there has been some minor geo-magnetic disturbances. [link to www.haarp.alaska.edu] Keep an eye on NICT simulation for any spikes in density or pressure: [link to www2.nict.go.jp] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 11/27/2011 05:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Haha, thx but you come always with the real shit :P hi hugh have to sleep! im a bit tired...thx for this cool stuff again if u have time plz watch sdo...you can see a flare took place from the new region which rotate into view soon (1339, and before a smaller one) also in the mid of solar disc some filament erruption and in the east limb also <----caused the farside cme??? cya |