SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

We have an M class with an LDE of over 4hours and nothing pinned on this, amazing, now thats a conspiracy in itself!

Hi NIN and Shadasonic! Glad to see the thread alive again!

well, the LDE started at about 13:15 UTC on the 19th

the the LDE with this flare has been dropping so slow, that the Xray flux is JUST NOW dropped to the beginning C level at 02:19 UTC jan 20th

Thats 13hrs

give me 2 sek and i will update this post with the most recent composite from SDO that shows shows region 1401 still in flare mode

ok, here is the most recent image as of 02:33utc jan 20th from SDO where you can see this active region very well


here is the SDO image taken at around 21:36 utc Jan 19th


they almost look the same ^^
the energy from that region has remained at high levels since the beginning of the LDE flare 13hrs ago

here is the most recent image of SDO EVE
usually we view this image to see the strength of a solar flare
here we can see this region very clear
we see its still releasing a lot of energy


now, lets compair this SDO EVE image to one thats take at the moment of a M flare
here is one i have on file in my smilies

here is on from Sept 25th 2011 taken at the moment we had 2 flares measuring a M one after another
we can compair this image to the one above
and get a clearer idea of the amount of energy that has ramained being released from the sun for most of today


Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/19/2012 09:52 PM

hiya OG :)
threads always poppin when the sun wakes up ^^

Hey OG,you can't keep a good thread down!

13 HOURS , simply amazing

Indeed.





Z

Hey Guys!

Here is NASAs prediction list for the arrival and duration of this multiple wave CME released with the LDE today.



Event Issue Date: 2012-01-19 17:46:28.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-01-21 22:29:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.3 Re


Sat, 21 Jan 2012 22:29:04 UTC
Sun, 22 Jan 2012 10:29:04 UTC






Event Issue Date: 2012-01-20 01:01:56.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-01-22 00:52:12.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 9 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.0 Re


Sun, 22 Jan 2012 00:52:12 UTC
Sun, 22 Jan 2012 09:52:12 UTC








Event Issue Date: 2012-01-20 00:20:44.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-01-22 02:19:19.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 16 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.5 Re


Sun, 22 Jan 2012 02:19:19 UTC
Sun, 22 Jan 2012 18:19:19 UTC

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 01/20/2012 02:38 AM

Y thank U Tom for the skinny on the LDE.

I hope all is well with you.




Z

Morning my fellow suntards...

Shadasonic...there was a thread pinned on this..here is the link

Thread: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..

I've checked the solaralert blog and a few other places but is there any more information on the CME today?

The only thing new I've seen is that it had a type II and IV radio emission and it was in fact a full halo CME.

Also I am a suntard but I haven't followed CME impacts for very long, so will there still be any effect on our magnetosphere from the CME due to impact the day before the full-halo?

Starting to get a little thump back in the X-ray flux...

[link to www.solarham.com]

hi :)
the full halo we see is from the ejection of the CME from the sun
depending on its speed, it usually takes anywhere from 2-4 days before it reaches earth
once it reaches earth, at that time is when you will see the effects of the CME
this is when the particles that make up the CME impact earths magnetosphere
after the CME leaves the field of view from STEREO and LASCO images, it's a waiting game until it reaches Earth
there is nothing more to report about this CME at this time
but that will all change when it arrives
We are expecting this compact CME to arrive sometime on Saturday Jan. 21st
stay tuned for updates when it arrives!
hope that helpes in answering your question :)

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/20/2012 09:53 AM

I'd like to hask you if this CME can disrupt weather patterns, magnetic field and make in it breaks like we see last year. Thank's

Nin
Can you please put on your blog a spreadsheet with this info to keep track of the events, specially if earth bound.


-ejection date/time
-FLARE
-CME
-direction
-duration
-arrival date/time

etc.....

correction:

Mars = 90deg on 10.02.2012 (ish)

Venus and Mercury in opposition and both 90deg to us (making a tee).

and of course Mercury will have orbited a buncha times by the end of the year....i'll be posting those dates as they come up.

i have a feeling it's gonna quite a 'ride' : shiteatinggrin.jpg

i believe yes
we have seen many cases when a CME arrives and then we see the "weird weather" posts/articles pop up in abundance.
Many posters in here have posted articles related to how particles from space interact with our atmosphere and cause extreem changes when they interact with terestrial elements.

1st, we look at how the sun effects our magnetosphere:
The solar wind affects the other incoming cosmic rays interacting with the atmosphere of planets. Moreover, planets with a weak or non-existent magnetosphere are subject to atmospheric stripping by the solar wind.


Earth itself is largely protected from the solar wind by its magnetic field, which deflects most of the charged particles; however some of the charged particles are trapped in the Van Allen radiation belt. A smaller number of particles from the solar wind manage to travel, as though on an electromagnetic energy transmission line, to the Earth's upper atmosphere and ionosphere in the auroral zones. The only time the solar wind is observable on the Earth is when it is strong enough to produce phenomena such as the aurora and geomagnetic storms. Bright auroras strongly heat the ionosphere, causing its plasma to expand into the magnetosphere, increasing the size of the plasma geosphere, and causing escape of atmospheric matter into the solar wind. Geomagnetic storms result when the pressure of plasmas contained inside the magnetosphere is sufficiently large to inflate and thereby distort the geomagnetic field.
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Then we look at the measured changes this causes
Earth’s Magnetic Field and Climate Variability
The strength of the Earth’s magnetic field varies tremendously around the world. The following figure shows the magnetic field intensity around the world in 2005 [ [link to www.ngdc.noaa.gov] The magnetic field has greatest strength near the poles and the weakest area over South America and across the El Nino area of the Pacific Ocean.
The areas of greatest warming are where the magnetic field is at its greatest intensity in the northern polar region, whereas the area of greatest cooling is where the magnetic field is at its greatest intensity in the southern polar region.

on the interactions of CME's with Earth:
This restructuring visibly manifests itself most clearly in the production of ionized plasmas and the associated distribution of aurora high over the north and south polar regions. In turn, the Earth’s lower atmosphere (that part responsible for weather phenomena) undergoes variations in composition and dynamics influenced by these coupling effects through a complex and as yet not fully understood feedback system
[link to www.megakastro.gr]

that article is a MUST READ for anyone wanting to understand how CME's effect our earth and our weather
it has images, graphs from studys and lays it all out 1 by 1 for us

You are great! And do you think it can break like last year, and material of CME reach the surface of the planet?

omg : awesome orrery

[link to www.dynamicdiagrams.com]

you can really see that the Sol's rotation period is the same as the Luna's orbital period in this model.

very sweet.

we have always had the flare time
but have started to add something similar to what your asking for

January 2012:
M2.6 Flare on 1/19/2012 @ 15:30 UTC - Sunspot 1402
M3.2 Flare on 1/19/2012 @ 16:05 UTC - Sunspot 1402
- This was a double flare event
- LDE lasting 13hrs. starting 13:43 Jan 19 - ending aprox. 03:00 UTC Jan 20th
- CME produced ETA: 22:00 utc Jan 21, 2012
M1.7 Flare on 1/18/2012 @ 19:12 UTC - Sunspot 1401
M1.0 Flare on 1/17/2012 @ 04:53 UTC - Sunspot 1401
C6.5 Flare on 1/16/2012 @ 04:44 UTC - Sunspot 1402
- LDE lasting 4 hrs. starting 02:36 - ending 06:46
- CME Produced ETA Jan 20th 2012
M1.4 Flare on 1/14/2012 @ 13:18 UTC - Sunspot 1401

this is updated on the 1st page of this thread, and on the flare count page of the solar alerts blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

on the blog we have added a list of expected CMEs to the right hand column of each page, labeled "CME's Expected"
We will add CMEs we are expecting in there, so that we can all keep track of whats expected and when. When you click the CME link, you are directed to the original post for that event where all details are added

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/20/2012 12:21 PM

:)
yes, more than last year
because we are entering the solar max and solar activity will increase a great deal

love that site
as well as this one
[link to www.solarsystemscope.com]
click play and it animates

:)
yes, more than last year
because we are entering the solar max and solar activity will increase a great deal


This is very dangerous...

on a note about the sounds in the sky...
Pay special attention to the 1:44 mark. the magnetosphere cusp

[link to www.youtube.com]

on a note about the sounds in the sky...
Pay special attention to the 1:44 mark. the magnetosphere cusp

[link to www.youtube.com]

on a whim, i checked the CME list Nin's/IWTB blog. Unless i missed one, there was only one earth directed CME produced last year.

'twas on 9.07, yes?

well: Venus was in 90 planetary coupling with us on that date....

^^

correction: twas Mars!

hmmm. Mars. When did all that OWS hullabaloo begin?

and Luna was agian behind us when the cme hit.

so curious!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]