SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Yes!!! Check out C3

That looks massive, not pixel issue either. Will look in to this

Thread: DONT FORGET to look at SOHO - pics!!!

Can anyone tell me what happened? I linked the thread about it, and the soho link is in there. It looks damn scary...

NIP says its an artifact

Maybe quakes can influence TEC. I didn't find anything during a brief search to suggest that the converse is true.



General article stating that some studies indicate that elevated TEC can be used a pre-cursor signal to predict earthquake activity. Skeptics abound.

[link to physicsworld.com]


Abstract presenting preliminary results to the EGU in 2011...

"This study may lead to a better understanding of the response of the atmosphere /ionosphere to the Great Tohoku earthquake." Note atmosphere responding to quake not visa versa.

[link to arxiv.org]



Abstract of a peer reviewed article submitted to Geophysical Research Letters...

Two of the key points...

"Positive TEC anomaly appears before M9 class events
The anomaly occurs above the epicenter and lasts ~1 hour"

Note the anomaly lasts only 1 hour.

[link to www.agu.org]


An article submitted to the peer reviewed International Jourmal of Geophysics...

... where they take great pains to separate the solar flare, geomagnetic storm activity and long term variance in TEC (which certainly the daily TEC maps do not) to analyze whether or not ground based phenomena influences TEC prior to earthquake activity. Meaning that they believe that sources of TEC other than those generated by the earth have absolutely nothing to do with earthquake activity.

They believe there are pre-earthquake ground based sources which may. Some of the possible sources they suggest are...

"Recent research into earthquake-associated ionospheric anomalies has been able to show that associations do exist between earthquakes and ionospheric disturbance [3–6]. The precise mechanism(s) is not clear and a number of reasonable theories have been presented as to what may cause earthquake-associated TEC anomalies. These include a number of geochemical processes in the dilatant phase of earthquake preparation such as radon ionization, causing long-living ion clusters in the lower atmosphere [7], the activation of mobile positive holes in the earth’s crust, resulting in strong electric fields and activation of highly mobile electronic charge carriers in rocks near the earth’s surface [8, 9], and the release of CO2 gas [10] which could potentially destroy neutral clusters, resulting in the near ground layer becoming rich in ions [3]. The resultant lower-atmosphere electric field follows geomagnetic field lines into the ionosphere leading to the noted anomalies. Other potential causes are physical such as acoustic gravity waves. One possible cause of these is CO2 gas release creating turbulence in the lower atmosphere and another would be fine vibrations in the earth’s crust associated with earthquake preparation. Whatever the specific cause of these anomalies, researchers have been able to show that in many cases the observed anomalies have been earthquake related [3, 11]."

So they are suggesting numerous possible earth based mechanisms for a rise in TEC but even they do not specifically name which one or how much each might contribute to any specific elevated reading.

[link to www.hindawi.com]


In summary, the sources above would seem to indicate that, if there are anomalous rises in TEC prior to earthquakes, this rise might be very short term (as short as 1 hour as one study suggests). No one is saying TEC causes earthquakes. The studies that are in evidence suggest the exact opposite, that earthquakes might possibly influence TEC. Rise in TEC does not cause earthquakes. Nor the do the daily TEC maps have any predictive ability due to the fact that they do not factor out the backgound and solar induced TEC variations from their graphical data representations.

This is far from an exhaustive study though I'd be surprised (and contrite) to be proved wrong.

Sorry for wandering so far afield from the object of this thread. Luckily one of the articles mentioned solar. Flare on!

--

cheers mate
Peace

Not much research really Nerd. Just a quick look at the first few pages of a search that included "TEC earthquakes". I just got curious about it and that's what popped up. Thanks for the green and back at ya. It counteracts the red I got for going off topic. Given by, uh, well I'm not sure who gave it, it not being signed... chicken little perhaps, with great intestinal fortitude and the courage of their convictions. Probably make a good politician. Or a banker...lol... just kidding. Don't care.

AR1455 sure has grown a lot again, beautiful spot, looks like a hot air balloon... SDO lmsal has a bunch of vids up...
[link to www.lmsal.com]

One of the latest...
[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

I'm real curious as to what the pair of spots rotating in are going to do... opposite polarities, pretty close together, opposite sides of the equator, interesting arrangement...

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

--

NOAA forecast: G1 minor geomagnetic storm expected-

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 763
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 12 1946 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Apr 12 1945 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Apr 13 0000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder K-index at 4-

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Satellite Environment plots:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE solar wind plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Is this the result of the coronal holes ??

Hi, TS, IWTB and everybody

Coronal hole wind stream in excess of 600 km/s detected at SOHO. Also, the earlier peaks in density have dropped to near zero.

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Arrgghh!?

UFO GUYZ!

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

:nowwerun:

what is that^^^

Hiya nice catch^^


i made a closeup with helioviewer

:sungrazerapril12:
Enlarge:
[link to helioviewer.org]

wrote a mail to sungrazer, nothing so far

Hiya nice catch^^


i made a closeup with helioviewer

:sungrazerapril12:
Enlarge:
[link to helioviewer.org]

wrote a mail to sungrazer, nothing so far