SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 07/12/2012 09:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just to the Right hand side of the Regions but going Northward..I'd watch that,could be a Bi-Polar connection has been loaded and primed. We shall see : ) Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/12/2012 09:24 PM The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Starry eyes User ID: 13160787 United States 07/12/2012 09:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
shadasonic User ID: 15732022 United States 07/12/2012 09:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I just saw a new line of Plasma form on EVE [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Quoting: Spittin'Cesium Just to the Right hand side of the Regions but going Northward..I'd watch that,could be a Bi-Polar connection has been loaded and primed. We shall see : ) I get a very strong feeling its reloading “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
shadasonic User ID: 15732022 United States 07/12/2012 09:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hi SE, maybe it will pick up for you now your off! “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 07/12/2012 09:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I just saw a new line of Plasma form on EVE [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Quoting: Spittin'Cesium Just to the Right hand side of the Regions but going Northward..I'd watch that,could be a Bi-Polar connection has been loaded and primed. We shall see : ) I get a very strong feeling its reloading The line I mentioned is clearly visable here [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] on the top-right of the Region. Check out the Filament Lift off in the North [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] ! The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 19372178 United States 07/12/2012 09:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Howdy, Starry eyes, - Me,too. and it took me 2 hours to go thru all the posts in the last 6 hours. Wow, this thread may reach 1000 pages by Monday morning! After my prediction of a major flare event within 36-48 hours, I was ready today to re-name GIGANTOR the "Gentle Giant" and eat some crow, but NOOOOOOO!-1520 came through big time. After the flare I checked the magnetogram and very little had changed since it was in the B-range. This region seems ready to explode at a moment notice so stay alert. This region actually seems more typical of an active region than AR1515. I've never seen so many staccato, short-lived M-flares before, not to mention the deflected nature of the CMEs. Now I have to go back and find out which posts to quote and comment on, hahaha. Great job here by everyone! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 18833911 United States 07/12/2012 09:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 19372178 United States 07/12/2012 09:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
shadasonic User ID: 15732022 United States 07/12/2012 09:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Howdy, Starry eyes, - Me,too. and it took me 2 hours to go thru all the posts in the last 6 hours. Wow, this thread may reach 1000 pages by Monday morning! After my prediction of a major flare event within 36-48 hours, I was ready today to re-name GIGANTOR the "Gentle Giant" and eat some crow, but NOOOOOOO!-1520 came through big time. After the flare I checked the magnetogram and very little had changed since it was in the B-range. This region seems ready to explode at a moment notice so stay alert. This region actually seems more typical of an active region than AR1515. I've never seen so many staccato, short-lived M-flares before, not to mention the deflected nature of the CMEs. Now I have to go back and find out which posts to quote and comment on, hahaha. Great job here by everyone! Good to have you here always feels like somethings missing without your posts! “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
RTS REDUX User ID: 8620349 United States 07/12/2012 09:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I just saw a SDO movie they showed on NBC in 304 and it looked like all of the ejecta came from an area above 1520 Quoting: RTS REDUX you can't see it in this video that SDO just posted [link to www.youtube.com] This is great vid. thanks for posting! yw..the movie NBC played looked like a SDO image but was offset which makes me wonder if they have a secret sun scope mounted on Hubble or Spitzer. In that movie the filament looked like a whip as long as about half the diameter of the sun. It was well N of 1520. I just tried to find it on Jhelioviewer in about 1/2 dozen different filters but haven't been able to find it yet. If I do find something I'll make a video or post a screenshot. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1540313 United States 07/12/2012 09:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I just saw a new line of Plasma form on EVE [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Quoting: Spittin'Cesium Just to the Right hand side of the Regions but going Northward..I'd watch that,could be a Bi-Polar connection has been loaded and primed. We shall see : ) Yes, you are right, looks like it is ripening. |
Starry eyes User ID: 13160787 United States 07/12/2012 10:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 19605629 Germany 07/12/2012 10:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
shadasonic User ID: 15732022 United States 07/12/2012 10:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I just saw a new line of Plasma form on EVE [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Quoting: Spittin'Cesium Just to the Right hand side of the Regions but going Northward..I'd watch that,could be a Bi-Polar connection has been loaded and primed. We shall see : ) I get a very strong feeling its reloading The line I mentioned is clearly visable here [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] on the top-right of the Region. Check out the Filament Lift off in the North [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] ! The filament to the north looks like a skeleton sitting on a rock “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
Starry eyes User ID: 13160787 United States 07/12/2012 10:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Howdy, Starry eyes, - Me,too. and it took me 2 hours to go thru all the posts in the last 6 hours. Wow, this thread may reach 1000 pages by Monday morning! After my prediction of a major flare event within 36-48 hours, I was ready today to re-name GIGANTOR the "Gentle Giant" and eat some crow, but NOOOOOOO!-1520 came through big time. After the flare I checked the magnetogram and very little had changed since it was in the B-range. This region seems ready to explode at a moment notice so stay alert. This region actually seems more typical of an active region than AR1515. I've never seen so many staccato, short-lived M-flares before, not to mention the deflected nature of the CMEs. Now I have to go back and find out which posts to quote and comment on, hahaha. Great job here by everyone! It certainly has picked up, Hugh :) With today's performance, the 1520 region seems promising! I'll hang around for a while. ***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.*** |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 19372178 United States 07/12/2012 10:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Today's CME forecast to hit us Sat., between 3 am & 5 pm EDT. Moderate to severe activity (Kp 6-8) possible. Quoting: IwantToBelieve76 Here's the ISWA Model: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov] New ISWA Cygnet streamer: [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] Electrons Ions: [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] Great work as usual, IWTB! That second link shows all of the varios cone models and the "Dynamic Pressure" and "Density" puts Earth in the black (strongest) part of the storm. Even in the best-case-scenario we'll receive quite a jolt. Event Issue Date: 2012-07-12 13:37:29.0 GMT CME Arrival Time: 2012-07-14 10:20:38.0 GMT Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours Disturbance Duration: 8 hours Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re |
tomasgod1 User ID: 19599487 United States 07/12/2012 10:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Now we have something to talk about, haha! This X1.4 Flare from 1520 peaked around 16:49 July 12, 2012 UTC. The CME first shows up ejecting from around the occulting disk on Stereo A Cor2 at 16:54:50, while the flare is still peaking. This was a very fast plane of sky ejection speed. This is a large CME with a lot of material being pushed out from the center or the disk in an Earthward direction, this time. The CMEs thick cloud is very discernable on both Stereo A and B Cor2 images below... [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] This CME is moving so quickly that it was already seen in the Stereo B HI1 images starting at 23:18UT (that is Venus about to get blasted) below.. [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] It looks like CCMC NASA ISWA currently is forcasting the arrival for around 2012 07 14 for approx 18:00 UTC or 2:00pm Sat afternoon, and WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction from NOAA/SWPC is predicting the arrival for approx 2012 07 14 20:00 UTC. I would not be at all suprised if it arrived within 30-36 hrs from the ejection, putting it's arrival here Fri night into Sat morning between 2012 07 13 22:00 - 2012 07 14 04:00 UTC. _______ Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] YouTube Channel [link to www.youtube.com] "Give me Liberty, or give me Death!" FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799) |
tomasgod1 User ID: 19599487 United States 07/12/2012 10:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Today's CME forecast to hit us Sat., between 3 am & 5 pm EDT. Moderate to severe activity (Kp 6-8) possible. Quoting: IwantToBelieve76 Here's the ISWA Model: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov] New ISWA Cygnet streamer: [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] Electrons Ions: [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] Great work as usual, IWTB! That second link shows all of the varios cone models and the "Dynamic Pressure" and "Density" puts Earth in the black (strongest) part of the storm. Even in the best-case-scenario we'll receive quite a jolt. Event Issue Date: 2012-07-12 13:37:29.0 GMT CME Arrival Time: 2012-07-14 10:20:38.0 GMT Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours Disturbance Duration: 8 hours Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re Glad to see ISWA/CCMC shortning those arrival times up. NOAA still going with 1:00 pm Eastern. "The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout today at 12:49 EDT (1649 UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the CME around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14." [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Their cone model,showing the arrival at 20:00UTC. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 07/12/2012 10:36 PM _______ Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] YouTube Channel [link to www.youtube.com] "Give me Liberty, or give me Death!" FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 12844841 United States 07/12/2012 10:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hey Nin. Do you know if the polarity of that CMe, from the X flare, will be pulling the Bz South? Quoting: El Quisqueyano i would say it is very hard to tell and we will have to wait and see this becuase the sunspot the CME came from, 1520, had many intermixing polarities some + and some - all woven together Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 12844841 United States 07/12/2012 10:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | heard it here 1st!!!! :) the ego part of me likes to think they do but the humble part in me says we just agree :) I like this. Thanks, NiNzrez. Awesome reporting and amazing day! :eme3: Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
tomasgod1 User ID: 19599487 United States 07/12/2012 10:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hey Nin. Do you know if the polarity of that CMe, from the X flare, will be pulling the Bz South? Quoting: El Quisqueyano i would say it is very hard to tell and we will have to wait and see this becuase the sunspot the CME came from, 1520, had many intermixing polarities some + and some - all woven together Exactly my thoughts on this one as well. NiN _______ Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] YouTube Channel [link to www.youtube.com] "Give me Liberty, or give me Death!" FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 12844841 United States 07/12/2012 10:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Ooorrgghhh!? Quoting: Spittin'Cesium My Head is killing : / Must be due to [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] And [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] I missed the beginning of the X but the effects are for sure persistant,my skull is banging,hard..OouchhH. mine was too then i took a shower and feel brand new a great thing to do when were having this solar activity is take off your shoes and go stand/walk in the grass or sand or dirt get grounded! doing this will help reduce the negative electrons that sometimes build up in the human body from the bombardment of solar particles/radaition etc [link to www.naturalbodyhealing.com] [link to health.howstuffworks.com] if you still feel yukky after that, a shower will do the job. it does the same thing as the grounding with earth as i said above and a double dose of antioxidants durring this solar weather will also help :) when you can, do all 3 Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 12844841 United States 07/12/2012 10:45 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Nooo Spidey J! The Aluminium induces and amplifies the Waves! Tinfoil hat plus Amalgam Fillings should mean one would be able to pick up not only FM Bands but also Digital Radio : ) omg Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 12844841 United States 07/12/2012 10:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Nooo Spidey J! The Aluminium induces and amplifies the Waves! Tinfoil hat plus Amalgam Fillings should mean one would be able to pick up not only FM Bands but also Digital Radio : ) Gold is best. The ancients wore gold helmets, beaten-thin gold arm bands, huge gold necklaces and breast plates that covered the heart for a reason. [link to 4.bp.blogspot.com] [link to www.janusmuseum.org] [link to i.ytimg.com] [link to www.egyptgiftshop.com] :Inan: ahhhhh bingo! so so many miss that connection ^^ sounds like something i say on a night at my house while sitting around with friends talking theory ;) Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 12844841 United States 07/12/2012 10:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Now we have something to talk about, haha! Quoting: tomasgod1 This X1.4 Flare from 1520 peaked around 16:49 July 12, 2012 UTC. The CME first shows up ejecting from around the occulting disk on Stereo A Cor2 at 16:54:50, while the flare is still peaking. This was a very fast plane of sky ejection speed. This is a large CME with a lot of material being pushed out from the center or the disk in an Earthward direction, this time. The CMEs thick cloud is very discernable on both Stereo A and B Cor2 images below... [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] This CME is moving so quickly that it was already seen in the Stereo B HI1 images starting at 23:18UT (that is Venus about to get blasted) below.. [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] It looks like CCMC NASA ISWA currently is forcasting the arrival for around 2012 07 14 for approx 18:00 UTC or 2:00pm Sat afternoon, and WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction from NOAA/SWPC is predicting the arrival for approx 2012 07 14 20:00 UTC. I would not be at all suprised if it arrived within 30-36 hrs from the ejection, putting it's arrival here Fri night into Sat morning between 2012 07 13 22:00 - 2012 07 14 04:00 UTC. hey tom! yay back just in time :) i calculated the time around 06:00 on the 14th +/- 4hrs almost the exact same as you Last Edited by NiNzrez on 07/12/2012 10:50 PM Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 07/12/2012 10:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Now we have something to talk about, haha! Quoting: tomasgod1 This X1.4 Flare from 1520 peaked around 16:49 July 12, 2012 UTC. The CME first shows up ejecting from around the occulting disk on Stereo A Cor2 at 16:54:50, while the flare is still peaking. This was a very fast plane of sky ejection speed. This is a large CME with a lot of material being pushed out from the center or the disk in an Earthward direction, this time. The CMEs thick cloud is very discernable on both Stereo A and B Cor2 images below... [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] This CME is moving so quickly that it was already seen in the Stereo B HI1 images starting at 23:18UT (that is Venus about to get blasted) below.. [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] It looks like CCMC NASA ISWA currently is forcasting the arrival for around 2012 07 14 for approx 18:00 UTC or 2:00pm Sat afternoon, and WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction from NOAA/SWPC is predicting the arrival for approx 2012 07 14 20:00 UTC. I would not be at all suprised if it arrived within 30-36 hrs from the ejection, putting it's arrival here Fri night into Sat morning between 2012 07 13 22:00 - 2012 07 14 04:00 UTC. Incredible. Blooming Plasma Plumage..should be a mighty whack,Multiple wild polarities within you would think from the images and positions of the HSBs. Thank you Tom for posting : ) The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 07/12/2012 11:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Nooo Spidey J! The Aluminium induces and amplifies the Waves! Tinfoil hat plus Amalgam Fillings should mean one would be able to pick up not only FM Bands but also Digital Radio : ) omg Hey there NiNz The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 14733798 United States 07/12/2012 11:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Wow what a day. Hiya all. Saw the flare, had to leave, just got caught up. Big cme. When the flare was hitting I had a sharp pain on right side of head. I felt sick too. I do all of Nin's suggestions, including ingesting some organic xtra Virgin Olive oil. It really does help. |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 19372178 United States 07/12/2012 11:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Now we have something to talk about, haha! Quoting: tomasgod1 This X1.4 Flare from 1520 peaked around 16:49 July 12, 2012 UTC. The CME first shows up ejecting from around the occulting disk on Stereo A Cor2 at 16:54:50, while the flare is still peaking. This was a very fast plane of sky ejection speed. This is a large CME with a lot of material being pushed out from the center or the disk in an Earthward direction, this time. The CMEs thick cloud is very discernable on both Stereo A and B Cor2 images below... [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] This CME is moving so quickly that it was already seen in the Stereo B HI1 images starting at 23:18UT (that is Venus about to get blasted) below.. [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] It looks like CCMC NASA ISWA currently is forcasting the arrival for around 2012 07 14 for approx 18:00 UTC or 2:00pm Sat afternoon, and WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction from NOAA/SWPC is predicting the arrival for approx 2012 07 14 20:00 UTC. I would not be at all suprised if it arrived within 30-36 hrs from the ejection, putting it's arrival here Fri night into Sat morning between 2012 07 13 22:00 - 2012 07 14 04:00 UTC. Howdy, TG1, great to see you, SunBro! I'm not sure where to begin with this event. First of all, I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha. Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0 Serial Number: 65 Issue Time: 2012 Jul 13 0034 UTC CANCEL WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected Cancel Serial Number: 64 Original Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1740 UTC Comment: Conditions no longer present for warning. Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] ... more when I gather my wits, LOL. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 18989138 United States 07/12/2012 11:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |