SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

SHe may be ready to go C+?
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Peace

Nite nite. and , yes where is HughamI ??

Get good rest

morning everyone :)
i was reading and trying to find a CME that i knew was to give a glancing blow
i thought it was for today? but i found it and it says for the 29th

"Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Slight growth was
observed in Region 1526 (S17W00). The remainder of the disk and
limb was quiet and stable. A relatively slow moving CME
(approximate plane-of-sky speed of 350 km/s) was observed off the
southern limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 25/0236Z.
Correlations with STEREO-A COR2 imagery indicated ejecta movement
was slightly south of the ecliptic plane with a possible
Earth-directed component. This CME was likely the result of a small
filament eruption just south of central disk observed in H-alpha
imagery at approximately 24/2235Z. A preliminary WSA ENLIL model
run of the event indicated a weak impact early on 29 July."
[link to spaceref.com]

i will have to look into this a bit more for you all


i did however come to post this tid bit of info

New region 11532 [S20E69] rotated partly into view on July 25 and was numbered the next day by SWPC. The region is close to an FSO classification. C flares are possible and there is a slight chance of an M class flare.

An unusually large filament system is situated across the equator between the active regions in the northern and southern parts of the eastern hemisphere. The filament system appears to be stable but should be watched for activity as an eruption while it is near the central meridian could cause a major geomagnetic storm
[link to www.solen.info]

that whole southeastern region is starting to wake up a bit more and we are now seeing elevated Xray levels

Hi Nin! We see some very interesting plasma "clouds" that seem to hang above the solar surface for a long time, days even, usually these masses fall right back to the surface, so they are interesting- magnetic lines hold it all up- even tho it's wispy like clouds.
Was the CME you are speaking of the one that looks like a light-bulb w/a huge filament inside? Pictured all over this thread yesterday?

Neat! Thanks for letting us know.

It's showing up on WSA-Enlil model: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] (the baby cme)

Last Edited by madajs on 07/27/2012 11:25 AM

Nice catch, I missed that one.

Does anyone know what Phi (gsm) on this chart stands for. I've been looking around, and can't find anything in the glossaries or the web in general ...

Seems somewhat spastic at the moment however, along with temperature spikes.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

those "clouds" are called Solar Prominences
they are quite common
"A prominence is a large, bright feature extending outward from the Sun's surface, often in a loop shape. Prominences are anchored to the Sun's surface in the photosphere, and extend outwards into the Sun's corona. While the corona consists of extremely hot ionized gases, known as plasma, which do not emit much visible light, prominences contain much cooler plasma, similar in composition to that of the chromosphere. A prominence forms over timescales of about a day, and stable prominences may persist in the corona for several months. Some prominences break apart and give rise to coronal mass ejections."
[link to en.wikipedia.org]
(sorry for the wiki link, but it has the best full description)

these can be thick and extend from end to end
or they can appear as fluffy light clouds above the solar surface with no visable beginning or end

about the CME, no, this report was from July 25th
Issued: 2012 Jul 25 2200 UTC
it was a small CME that was from the 25th that we can see here
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

We're right in the middle of a solar wind storm from the pie shaped coronal hole, but that doesn't explain everything

Hey TS, I was told it hit late last night but I could be wrong

Everybody keeps saying that. Have I missed something ???
According to this, effects of the CH shouldn't be felt until the 28th at the earliest.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on July 27. A high speed stream from CH525 could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions on July 28-30.

[link to www.solen.info]

and I haven't seen any residual effects from it either ....



^^ Not directed at anyone here, just getting frustrated !!! I think I'm going to take a break, and pick some carrots

Magnetic Field Phi
Could you explain what Phi is, in terms of the Sun's magnetic field? Is it the angle of the magnetic field? What influences it?
I assume that you are referring to plots of the magnetic field as measured by ACE (located ~1 million miles in front of the Earth (between the Earth and the Sun. These plots appear on the ACE Real Time Solar Wind page.

In these plots Phi is indeed the angle of the interplanetary magnetic field that is being carried out by the solar wind. Phi is measured in the GSM (geocentric solar magnetospheric) coordinate system. In this system the X-axis points from the Earth to the Sun and the Z-axis is pointing along the direction of the Earth's north magnetic pole. This puts the Y-axis roughly pointing to the left as one looks at the Sun from the Earth. Phi is the angle made by the field in the XY plane.
[link to helios.gsfc.nasa.gov]

here is a link to some of the most common solar question with the answers :)
[link to helios.gsfc.nasa.gov]

the phi angle shows the negative (toward) orientation
to a positive (away) orientation

negative is connection
positive is not

from a post i made on July 14th :)
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) (Page 978)

we also watch the Phi angle at ACE
we can see this here
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The Phi angle = Interplanetary magnetic field polar angle
Phi is the angle of the interplanetary magnetic field that is being carried out by the solar wind
[link to helios.gsfc.nasa.gov]

When we see the Phi angle go southward (into the negative) This shows the increase of the transport of solar winds & mass into the Earth's magnetosphere. When it goes into the positive, this shows a decrease in the transport of solar winds and mass into Earths magnetosphere.

Phi in the negative = higher connection
Phi into the positive = less connection

Ah, so, thank- you very much!

I thought it was originally the 28th, but the 2 minute update guy said a good possibility it could hit last night, don't know how much he knows,but he reads smart.lol
It could be we hsd a magnetic connection to the prominence lift off,it was a big boy.We had a connection to the backside monster CME the other day. It seems we are receiving constant energy with so many anomalies occuring that I lose track.Causes can't see their effects.
Pick some carrots for me , my garden is crispy!Peace

Thanks for the link and the explanation. I did see this definition but couldn't understand how it could be reflected on a graph.

So what's going on with it now, it's jumping from positive to negative, and there is a temp spike ??

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

With the constant energy saturation and the probability with it being constant for quite awhile, I hope I evolve into something cool!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Maybe a slow cruise into constant C land, or LDE

So much information Geeezzz!!!!

We got a climber!

A solar wind stream flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on July 28-30
[link to spaceweather.com]

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (27 July). By mid to late on day 2
(28 July), a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is
expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active periods.
Unsettled to active periods are expected on day 3 (29 July) due to
the combined effects of the CH HSS and the 25 July coronal mass
ejection.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

i believe what we are seeing today is from a CME that occurred on the 24th
we can see 2 events on the 24th here
1st one
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
2nd one
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

hard to tell without looking back through all data
but that 2nd one seem is the main culprit IMO

being negative it shows there is a connection with the IMF
so basicly, whatever is hitting the magnetosphere is connection and being allowed in

Mucho Gracias!

still rising
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Looking promising, stopped but climbing again!

At C 7.4, and vertical

M FLARE!

Z

ALL HANDS ON DECK!