SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

T x 2 and 66

I appreciate both of your responses. I've been looking around online and it seems there are a variety of answers to my question. I guess we will wait and see.

1629/30 are still trying to impress the "solar Watch"

C5.7 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

and a couple of weak Bs ...

If this link will work ( ) you will see a small emission from the C5.7 @08:00

[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]

Nope sorry, you'll have to go there yourself. Cactus hasn't updated yet, and you can't distinguish the CME from anything in the still shot ...

i think i missed that one
good find!

The poles are both readily reversing, but they haven't fully reversed. The north pole essentially has no polarity at present, it's sitting on the fence between (+) and (-). The south pole is still (+) but it's lower latitudes have shown drastic change and we'll get a reading on the polemost region over the next few months.

The key to reading this graph [link to www.leif.org] is to realize that the constant "curves" in the readings represent different latitudes of the respective polar regions that are being measured. All the latitudes of a respective polar region need to change polarity before it's a done deal, and even then a pole needs to strengthen and stabilize in it's new polarity before activity will calm down.

yes, the moment of the reversal is the moment of solar max
this is when both north and south field lines cross near the equator and switch places
the sun becomes very violent and active when these magnetics interact and switch
but this HAS NOT happened yet

we have the updated Solar polar fields with that last date of data entered on Nov 18, 2012
[link to www.solen.info]

we are very very close to solar max according to the newest data avaliable

Traditionally solar max refers to the sunspot count, not the magnetic poles. Obviously the two are very related, but sunspot max and pole reversal don't occur at the exact same time.

I'm gonna go ahead and disagree with accuweather for stating max has been reached, whichever definition they are using. I don't think we've reached sunspot max, and I know the poles haven't finished reversing. :)

NiNz and Madajs ... thank you both

I agree with you and NINz on this. We are getting very close now and should see some dramatic flaring in the near future as the magnetic fields unwind and release some pent-up energy. More on this later....

I hope so. I LOVE sun doom. :)

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Dec 10 1124 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance of
isolated M-class flares through the entire forecast period
(10 December 2012 - 05 January 2013).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Also, from looking at the predicted values they have set here
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
they are expecting to see the solar max reached around May 2013 and to last through Nov 2013

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 12/12/2012 11:26 AM

Can someone tell me what is going on with the Solar Wind Density? [link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]

I have never seen this chart look like this. I will save a screenprint, in case it changes. This table usually looks solid green. I am seeing a red triangle??

Howdy, NINzrez! O' NO, my glp membership expires in April, LOL.

I found this interesting article (from 2002) which may give us some clues on what to look for in the corona regarding pole reversal.--

"One of the main problems for astronomers in the last century has been finding a mechanism strong enough to cause polar reversals," she noted.
After analyzing a decade's worth of satellite data, Benevolenskaya and her colleagues may have found a crucial part of that mechanism - giant loops of hot, electrified gas that link the Sun's magnetic poles to sunspots located near the solar equator.
Each loop is like a colossal, twisted rainbow - a 500,000-mile-long arc that extends into the Sun's outer atmosphere, or corona, then returns to the surface. One end of the loop runs through either the north or south magnetic pole. The other end is connected to a sunspot of opposite magnetic polarity.

According to satellite data, the giant loops observed in the study only formed connections between magnetic poles and trailing spots located in the same hemisphere.
"These loops never crossed the equator," Scherrer said.
Because the magnetic pole and the trailing spot carried opposite magnetic polarities, each loop generated an incredibly intense flow of electricity. As the 2000 solar maximum approached, the number of trailing sunspots and loops increased - creating numerous magnetic links that may have been strong enough to contribute to the magnetic pole reversal.

Much more here:

[link to www.sciencedaily.com]

Here is a screenshot of it, in case the charts change.
IMAGE ( [link to i45.tinypic.com] )


It looks like the triangle on the Solar Wind - Density chart is in direct inverse to the drop on the Solar Wind - Speed chart. Does this mean the solar wind got extremely dense, but had no speed? I am also looking for a legend on the chart color. I haven't seen red on this chart before; it is usually green.

Nice catch, muse, it seems to be another case of bad data glitch from ACE. I see a crazy reading and then a gap around 15:30z.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Since we Earthlings have only one other detector in that neighborhood of space, I always check the SOHO SW data for verification. The SOHO detectors show no big spikes and no density above 15 p/cu.cm today. Both spacecraft are in the old age now and occasionally have fits of dementia, haha.

SOHO SW data:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

when i click on the "more data" button below the density chart that they have, it directs me to the ACE data charts
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
i see there could possibly be a spike around just before the 16:00UTC mark

so lets go look directly at the ACE density data for today
it looks like there is a gap in data right around that same time
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
that gap is seen on all the ACE charts
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
but when you look at this chart
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
we can see that the data gap occured directly after a large spike in Density and sharp drop in Radial Speed
one more chart for this
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

so lets look at the direct ACE density numbers for around that time. Here is the full day list for today
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

scroll to the 15:28UTC mark in the left collumn
there we can see a spike in Density begin @ 15:28UTC
Solar Wind Speed: 265.1
Density: 48.7

this is a Drop in sloar wind speed from 281.7, that it was 1 min before, down to 265.1
with an increase in Density from 2.3 that it was 1 min before, up to 48.7

then 1min later @ 15:29, we see the very large spike
Solar Wind Speed: 241.4
Density: 109.3 (!!! WOW !!!)

this makes within 2min time, a solar wind drop of around 40km/sec and a increase in proton density of around 107!

then we had the data loss, the gap we seen
and when it came back online, all is back to where it was prior to the spike

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 12/12/2012 12:38 PM

January through March could be very 'energetic' from what I've been told. Hiya Nin!

I have a feeling they will be! Today is intense as well, i dont believe its solar related (but I haven't read all the way through the last few posts on this thread) just an intense energetic shift coming in today it feels like...

THE SUN DOES A FLIP!-NASA News report from Feb. 2001 on the last cycle's pole reversal. This page has some good background material and graphics. I'm not sure if the audio file is still working tho.....Here's a snippet-

The Sun's basic magnetic field, like Earth's, resembles that of a bar magnet.
When solar maximum arrives and sunspots pepper the face of the Sun, our star's magnetic field begins to change. Sunspots are places where intense magnetic loops -- hundreds of times stronger than the ambient dipole field -- poke through the photosphere.
"Meridional flows on the Sun's surface carry magnetic fields from mid-latitude sunspots to the Sun's poles," explains Hathaway. "The poles end up flipping because these flows transport south-pointing magnetic flux to the north magnetic pole, and north-pointing flux to the south magnetic pole." The dipole field steadily weakens as oppositely-directed flux accumulates at the Sun's poles until, at the height of solar maximum, the magnetic poles change polarity and begin to grow in a new direction.

"Changes in the Sun's magnetic field are carried outward through the heliosphere by the solar wind," explains Steve Suess, another solar physicist at the Marshall Space Flight Center. "It takes about a year for disturbances to propagate all the way from the Sun to the outer bounds of the heliosphere."
Because the Sun rotates (once every 27 days) solar magnetic fields corkscrew outwards in the shape of an Archimedian spiral. Far above the poles the magnetic fields twist around like a child's Slinky toy.

Because of all the twists and turns, "the impact of the field reversal on the heliosphere is complicated," says Hathaway. Sunspots are sources of intense magnetic knots that spiral outwards even as the dipole field vanishes. The heliosphere doesn't simply wink out of existence when the poles flip -- there are plenty of complex magnetic structures to fill the void.
Or so the theory goes.... Researchers have never seen the magnetic flip happen from the best possible point of view -- that is, from the top down.

[link to science.nasa.gov]

its not marked as bad data though hugh
it IS valid data if you look at the top of any ACE data list, you will see this

# Status(S): 0 = nominal data, 1 to 8 = bad data record, 9 = no data

this value is shown in the column just to the left of the Density value amount
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

this is how we find out if it is or is not bad data, we cant just assume becuase its such an insane number in the spike that it Must then be bad data

so, looking at the data value for the data, we see the 2 times in question, 15:28 UTC and 15:29 UTC are data marked as "0"
) indicates "Normal/Good" data
if it was bad data, it would be market with a value between 1 and 8

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 12/12/2012 12:52 PM

Did not know that, Thanks!

I didn't know that, either. Thank you, Nin, for the detailed information.

Far-side filament eruption and CME seen by STEREO Ahead:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Nice view on the EUVI-A movie; look on the lower (oops) RIGHT side:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Solarsoft SDO close-up movie of the C5.7 flare from 1629:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 12/12/2012 01:27 PM

Two new active regions appear to be emerging NE of 1629-

Latest HMI Color Intensitygram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Latest HMI Color Magnetogram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

:2newARs:

Thank you so much for this thread.

Old 1620 looks nice.

[link to www.solarham.net]

2, 2, 2 lol like 12/12/12

Hello Folks

Hope you are all well : )

Regarding the pulses of higher density,the Sun does this as we approach Solar Max - I'll find a link for you guys later,but apparently these pulses are also of concern for Satellites as well as the potential for Geo-Storms etc. during Solar Max.

Anyhoo' [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] looks pretty wild : )

Nice eruption over the West limb as well as the dodgy Filament on the North-East flapping around [link to halpha.nso.edu] .

12-12-12= 2 X (6-6-6)