2012 DA14 WILL hit earth.. Confirmed.

In Today's world why would it be a grave error???
It would also be a Grave error to take Constitutional and God given rights away also.. wouldn't it???

With a population of 320 million people, regardless of what contingency plans the US government, or the TPTB have in place, it would be a force to be reckoned with especially in such a potentially chaotic period, combined with the mistrust of those they had put their trust in.

However, an attempt by the same entities, even at the last moment would be seen by many as somewhat redeemable by those who are not directly involved, and even with an impact scenario, will be many.

For anyone to say they know 100% what will happen is purely arrogance, as I'm not aware of any other instance to compare it to in recent times, or technology especially since "they" know, so many of "us" know for the first time in recorded history.

It's certainly an edge of your seat, wait and see moment.

And you would need to be an imbecile to think that gravity hasn't been taken into account.
Celestial mechanics is all about gravity.



Earth's gravity will effect it at any distance.
The shorter the distance the greater the force. (Half the distance, four times the force.)

An orbit is falling without hitting.
This thing is falling around the Sun.
It is also falling towards the Earth. But not fast enough to hit.

Celestial mechanics isn't some sort of arcane knowledge.
The calculations might be involved, but the principles are simple.
There's only one force that matters, gravity.
We've been studying how things fall ever since Simon Stevin dropped cannonballs from a church tower in 1583.



Everybody with a telescope big enough and their own computer (and some savvy) could.

Are you aware that amateurs have discovered exoplanets?
Modern telescopes with CCD detectors are immensily powerful.



No such thing, they are called gravity wells.
We do know Earth has a gravity well.
It is part of the calculations.

Make no mistake, unless we learn how to deflect these things we're going to get hit sooner or later.
But this isn't the one.

Meh...

I'm more worried about drones targeting americans..

And the elite are just dumb enough to do something to drag this comet into the earth to avoid any issues with their plan for dominance over humanity.

texas will secede if they arent told

It is not "trumped up data." How dare you. It will not hit!

I expect a full apology from you on the 16th.

Wrong, that is the cumulative risk for ALL future dates. The first possibility for impact does not occur for nearly a hundred years though. There is no risk for impact on the 15th.

That was an excellent explanation of how we determine and refine the orbit of an object. As we observe it over time, we improve our determination of its orbit and lower the uncertainty in the orbit. If the region of uncertainty overlaps earth, then there is a risk of impact. It does not overlap earth in this case.

LMFAO!

That's already accounted for!

It's amazing how gullible and ill informed some people are...

Fuck me!

I will be in north west Texas on the 15th!!!!!!!

:1ego1:

This is how the jpl explains the predicting of the orbit:

[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

Doesn't seem reassuringly accurate, at all.

The CNN 'expert' I just saw didn't sound too convinced, either.
Brought up the Siberia thang.

Fear-mongering or warning..?

!!! I'd like to hear these opinions!

Great,, Did you watch it?? It seems like figuring the trajectory is a mismotched double-slit experiment...

[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

And the quote above you has a named scientist...looking more and more hokey that it won't hit....

Were David Dunham's assertions ever debunked?

Last year, Dunham asserted (as transcribed by Russia’s Izvestia):

“The Earth’s gravitational field will alter the asteroid’s path significantly. Further scrupulous calculation is required to estimate the threat of collision. The asteroid may break into dozens of small pieces, or several large lumps may split from it and burn up in the atmosphere. The type of the asteroid and its mineral structure can be determined by spectral analysis. This will help predict its behavior in the atmosphere and what should be done to prevent the potential threat."

I have resigned myself to the fact that I can't
always separate truth from fiction.
Doesn't keep me from trying, 'tho.

!!

What is this thing made of. Why aren't they saying. Bullshit they would not know what its made of by now.

Probably why they are not saying. Its probably heavy metal and will get pulled in.

I actually hope it does. Sorry.

I think it will.

Actually, as someone who has predicted the orbit for himself, it is quite an accurate depiction of how it works.

It's bullshit. Even if it broke up the fragments would continue along the original orbit and would not hit the atmosphere at all.

You do realize that dallasdog was the same liar who perpetrated the "Dr. Ricks" bullshit, right?
Thread: ******FOUR SIREN ALERT NIBIRU IS NEAR***** (Page 36)
Thread: ******FOUR SIREN ALERT NIBIRU IS NEAR***** (Page 35)

Last Edited by Astromut on 02/05/2013 01:15 PM

Here is some helpful information to add to this debate from taken from NASA.GOV's article pertaining to this particular NEO.:

Full Article: [link to www.nasa.gov]

"Q: What is asteroid DA14
A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is a small near-Earth object – approximately 150 feet (45 meters) in diameter. On Feb. 15, 2013, the asteroid will pass by our planet at a remarkably close distance, but the asteroid’s path is understood well enough that there is no chance of a collision with the Earth.


Q: What date and what time will the asteroid be closest to Earth?
A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 will be closest to Earth on Feb. 15 at approximately 19:24 UTC (2:24 p.m. EST/11:24 a.m. PST). This time may change by a minute or two as the asteroid is tracked on its approach and predictions are refined.

At the time of closest approach, the asteroid will be over the eastern Indian Ocean, off Sumatra -- approx. latitude: -6 deg South. / longitude: 97.5 deg East.

Q: What would happen if DA14 were to impact Earth?
A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 will not impact Earth, but if another asteroid of a size similar to that of 2012 DA14 (about 150 feet across) were to impact Earth, it would release approximately 2.5 megatons of energy in the atmosphere and would be expected to cause regional devastation.

A comparison to the impact potential of an asteroid the size of 2012 DA14 could be made to the impact of a near-Earth object that occurred in 1908 in Tuguska, Siberia. Known in the asteroid community as the "Tunguska Event," this impact of an asteroid just slightly smaller than 2012 DA14 (approximately 100 – 130 feet/30-40 meters across) is believed to have flattened about 750 square miles (1,200 square kilometers) of forest in and around the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in what is now Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia."

--END QUOTE--


Having said all that, I will say I agree with the idea of a cover up, non-warning scenario, if this thing were to be projected to hit us, to prevent mass hysteria. On that note I will bring up a similar incident in 2002-2003 with 2002 NT7 where it was discovered as an object likely to impact and the information was released to the public. Many many articles and stories were published online and even in main stream news claiming doomsday and apocalypse were imminent. Example: [link to www.jerrypournelle.com] It turned out to be redefined as usual once additional observations were obtained. My point? They did tell us. It doesn't mean they will tell us in the future, but goes to show, I suppose, that the future is just...uncertain.

It is fun sometimes and even exciting to speculate, but let's not assume anything in our amazing physical would is 100% certain. Certainty is only in death! Everything else is constantly changing and subject to unforeseen variables such that only time will tell the real outcome. Enjoy! Life is exciting, no?

when I first checked the stats on DA14 a couple months ago the probability of impact was high

a month or so later when I went back to recheck the same states it was listed as NIL

hence it was changed, dramatically

I thought that odd but what isn't these days

Are you kidding? The probably of impact on Feb 15 was nil even as early as March of 2012!
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
You might be thinking of the cumulative probability for all future dates, but the first possible impact wasn't for years to come and with the data we have now we can rule out all possibilities for about the next century. On January 11th new astrometric data was acquired, greatly expanding the baseline of the observations.

Last Edited by Astromut on 02/05/2013 01:42 PM

Observation

Watching near earth asteroids for the last couple of years, no not from my own observatory, but through JPL, this is the FIRST near Earth event I have ever seen them use "condition code 0".