California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed

NEW DATA SHOON....LOOK AT SAN LUIS...GETTIN THERE...!

Not for me.

FEET STORAGE
AF OUTFLOW
CFS INFLOW
CFS RIV REL
CFS RAIN
INCHES BAT VOL
VOLTS
03/04/2019 05:00 809.86 2,304,976 4,380 23,331 4,982 35.24 13.4
03/04/2019 06:00 810.01 2,306,730 4,365 24,086 4,981 35.24 13.4
03/04/2019 07:00 810.15 2,308,367 4,373 25,049 4,969 35.24 13.4
03/04/2019 08:00 810.30 2,310,122 4,356 24,979 4,969 35.24 13.4
03/04/2019 09:00 810.43 2,311,644 4,367 24,234 4,969 35.24 13.4
03/04/2019 10:00 810.58 2,313,401 4,372 22,752 4,968 35.24 13.4
03/04/2019 11:00 810.70 2,314,808 4,379 22,687 4,969 35.24 13.4
03/04/2019 12:00 810.84 2,316,449 4,374 24,380 4,968 35.24 13.4
03/04/2019 13:00 810.96 2,317,856 4,372 23,627 4,968 35.24 13.4
03/04/2019 14:00 811.10 2,319,499 4,391 22,143 4,986 35.24 13.4
03/04/2019 15:00 811.20 2,320,673 4,334 21,337 4,947 35.24 13.4
03/04/2019 16:00 811.32 2,322,082 5,386 20,772 4,966 35.24 13.4

Right now, as of noon PST today, the lake level is at 810.84 feet, just 2.7 feet from the spillway gates, and rising 2-3 feet daily. At that rate, it will only be less than a day before the new billion-dollar spillway can be used/tested. DWR says there is an 813.6 foot threshold for use, and that is indicated by the orange line in the graph above. . .

More info, pics, data
[link to wattsupwiththat.com (secure)]

Current data as of 3/4/2019 @ 4 pm local time

811.32' level ... IN .. 20,772/cfs.. OUT 5,386/cfs (stored 2,322,082)

Level is UP 4.08 feet since 8 am Sunday morning
Storage is UP 47,584 Acre Feet since 8 am Sunday morning
(lake goes up about 1 foot per 11,900+- AF of water added to storage)

Based upon past behavior by the CA DWR they probably will allow the lake to steadily climb up to the 840 to 850 level before they really crank up the release rate.

At present the Oroville Lake is BELOW the level that they want to end the season at, so they do have storage room, AND presently they are trying to minimize flooding downstream from the recent rain runoff (which is already causing flooding).

As shown by the dynamics of 2017 the risk if HEAVY RAIN moisture hitting the watershed in later march, which then not only generates RAIN runoff but also generates MELT runoff. LOTS of snow now on the ground in the watershed area, with more expected.

Risky Dam
Risky Spillway

If I was downstream of this dam I would be seriously thinking of moving out in a couple of weeks for about 6 weeks once the lake hits the 850 level IF the future weather prognosis is for MORE RAIN/Snow later in March and extending into April

I think over 200K.

Cheers Buddy

I think they are over simplifying 813.6 level.

DWR have always stated they can't use spillway with less than around 830 level because of the threat of scouring the channel behind the gates which could be very serious.

Last Edited by mon KeyHanger on 03/04/2019 08:25 PM

Truth. The intake channel is unlined. One might think that they would have used this opportunity to rectify that issue.

At any rate, the lake level will be at 813' in a few hours.

Thanks GeoMS. So in theory they could lower the lake 18 or 19 ft in an hour at that rate right ? As long as the gates themselves hold up, I think everything will be alright.

However I am still glad I am not downstream of a dam of that scale and history of issues.

Yeah most likely.

Up to 813 ft
Should start to get interesting in a day or two

Gate leak check!

Shasta is already full and spewing 30,000 cfs..wonder when they are going to open the top gates again?

I'm expecting a Gate Fail!

IT IS OVER 816 NOW!

SAN LUIS IS EVEN WORSE...AT THE MOMENT....CAPACITY IS NEAR FULL.....ONLY ABOUT 30K ACRE FEET LEFT!...

The gate structure is racked and out of square. So much that the inflatable seals can't seal. We saw the sandbags being used to divert the leaking water away from the spillway work areas.

The gate structure should have been the first thing they fixed.


Elevation over 816'now. We would be seeing leaks if any of the cams were online.

OROVILLE IS AT 816 AND A 'FIFTH' JOEY...




SAN LUIS HAS NOT PUT OUT NUMBERS YET FOR THE HOUR...

IT TOOK IN OVER 7K ACRE FEET YESTERDAY...AT THAT PACE...

..BY ""SUNDAY OR LATE SAT."" IT IS BEYOND CAPACITY!!!

crunch, that is exactly what Scott Cahill said. It had to be gates first. The erosion into the hillside was a problem but not threatening the dam....it wasn't cutting backwards to the lake.

If they use the spillway and the gates fail to shut, then water will run out until it reaches the bottom of the gates. If there is no erosion in the intake channel then everybody will relax and hope it stays that way for the melt season. Fix the gates next year.

But if Cahill's concerns about scour opening up channels under the gates happens, then the dam is doomed.

I read somewhere they were doing some grouting in the voids near the top to prevent that water piping scenario. Not sure if true. And I recently read that all of the piezometers measuring water flow underneath the surface have failed and none have been replaced. That seems insane. You need to be checking for water movement. Maybe they just aren't telling us, and they did install new ones?

The question is, how much time would there be if a channel opened up under the gates, to evacuate? A few hours? A day?

OROVILLE AT 816 AND 3/5TH'S JOEY...



ALSO, SAN LUIS HAS RAISED ITS LEVEL IN THE LAST HOUR!
GOTTA B 99% OR MORE!

At one of those water management public meetings they said 60 mph 100 foot high wall of water at Oroville, a 30 foot high wall of water at Sacramento. You have to leave before it fails or you won't make it out likely.

live cam at Oroville Dam, it appears to be working and is today?
[link to www.parks.ca.gov]

time stamp at bottom dated today

camera does focus in on spillway from time to time

me: Is the power plant alright? 33,000 cfs inflow and they have seemingly ramped down the outflow to 4000 cfs. Lake is at 817 ft, what happened to keeping the lake at 750 ft?


blancolirio:
not 750 feet, wrong data.

me:Sorry bout that, was it 800 ft?

[link to imgur.com (secure)]

IT IS JUST UNDER 818 NOW.....SAN LUIS IS TAKING IN 'YUGE' RIVER RELEASE NUMBERS....GETTING REAL CLOSE TO 'DANGER' THERE!...

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR OROVILLE UNTIL 5PM PST THURSDAY!!!

NEW NUMBERS SHOULD BE OUT SHOON!

BUMP THE CDEC.