WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

In all fairness most are rightly correct when not trusting the government, they cried wolf far to many times they have no creditablity

Hi DR! Thank you for your great work. I'm Italian and I'm sharing it on Italian forum and they start taking your numbers and forecast seriously.
What's your opinion about Slovakia and Italy? Slovakia has implemented a light lockdown. May it work? They're gonna test the entire population between 10 and 65.
In Italy localized lockdowns (in metro area such as Naples and Milan) are highly likely. The curve is going up like crazy.

Since it is now October 27th, and the earliest lock-downs, at city level in Europe MIGHT start on Friday, 30th of October, it is clear that nation-wide lock-downs won't happen this month, as I expected.


Schools are still open, and I have said that any country that will have its schools open through October, will suffer extensively, and if the virus mutates after being exposed to younger hosts, it will be even worse.


I have also estimated that up to 25% of the population will be infected in this second wave, with up to 5% of them being infected in October, the rest up to 20% in the next 5 months (November 2020 - March 2021).


November is going to see about 7% of the population in Europe being infected by the virus, with slightly higher proportion in Western Europe, and slightly lower in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe, with large urban areas seeing the majority of the cases. The differences won't be big, and the pandemic in Europe will pretty much look the same in every country, through November, and especially towards the end of November.

The U.S. infections will start to ramp up this week, and by the end of November they will reach about 5% of the population being infected, most of them in the northern half of the U.S., concentrated in the large urban areas.


I won't bother breaking down the numbers to reflect the differences between rural areas / small towns and large urban areas.

This is not the point of this update.


The point of this update is to determine when the healthcare systems are going to be overwhelmed, in Europe and the U.S.


My estimates might be a bit higher then reality, and the rate of infection was not 5% in October, in Europe, but lower. But not much lower as to affect November.


I have previously said that Europe will completely lose control over the virus by the end of this month...and it is pretty much clear that most countries did lost it, and a handful that haven't already, are on the brink of losing it.

This week will be crystal clear that all of Europe lost control over the virus, and even if a full lock-down is implemented today, the effects will be felt at the end tail of November.


When looking at a 7% of the population being infected by the end of November, it is obvious that the medical system will collapse (as in any extra cases needing hospitalization won't be able to get it once hospitals are full).

We can see up to 3% of the population in Europe getting the virus by mid-November, and 4% between mid to end of November.


Europe's population (w/o Russia) is roughly 600 million. Based on my estimations, 3% of them (or roughly 18 million) will get infected by mid-November, and another 4% (24 million) between mid and end of November.


The overall positivity that I have calculated and posted in the previous major update, points to roughly 15% across Europe, which means that in reality, the number of infected people will be up to 4 times higher then the number of official detected cases, which in the case of 18 million real infected people by mid-November, means that the official cases will be roughly 4 times less, to around 4.5 million in the first 15 days or November.

It could be less, but not much less.


If my estimations are correct, Europe (w/o Russia) will see a median of around 300k official cases / day, in the first 15 days of November, with under 300k official cases at the beginning of November, and over 300k official cases toward mid-November.

After mid-November, 4% (or 24 million people) of Europe's population (w/o Russia) will contract the virus. The positivity rate of official testing will be close to 20% across Europe, which means the real number will be about 5 times higher, which ends up with an official number of cases across Europe in the range of 4.8 million cases in the last 15 days of November.

The median number of official cases in the last 15 days of November, across Europe, will be around 320k, lower at the beginning of the period, and higher towards the end.


It is highly likely that testing will increase, and the number of official cases to get higher, but that doesn't change the real numbers, it only changes the official numbers.


What these numbers mean, for Europe, in terms of hospitalizations and ICU?

Looking at what we know, there is a correlation between official cases (a non-reliable data) and hospitalization (a reliable -as much as we can rely on it- data).

About 10% of the official cases result in hospitalization. Even if the number of official cases is not real, we can assume that everyone that ends up in hospital gets tested for Covid-19, and the part of official cases that are linked to hospitalizations is as real as it gets, even of the overall official cases is clearly under the real number of infected.


Until recently (start of October), the number of new hospitalization was lower, on par, or slightly less then hospital discharges.

After mid-October, the number of new hospitalization rose to roughly 2 to 1 to discharges, and things won't get better in November.

So we can expect that 5% of the official cases will ADD to hospital bed capacity, which for November as a whole, for Europe, means over 900k hospitalization load, with around 450k discharges, ending up with roughly 450,000 ADDITIONAL hospital beds occupied by the end of November.


Now this is for the entire Europe, but remember, most of them will be in large urban areas, and I simply cannot see how the medical system can support such numbers.

As for ICU, about 10% of those hospitalized end up in ICU, and for Europe, this means an additional 45,000 ICU patients at the end of November.


The ONLY way to support such numbers, is for Germany to open up their hospitals for everyone in Europe, and most countries to call in the military medical resources to lessen the pressure on the civilian medical system, as well as calling back every single retired doctor and nurse, AND medical students.

And that is for NOVEMBER...


If Europe is going to see 300k official cases / day, starting in November, all my calculations will be correct, and we will see what my numbers are picturing : a war-like effort, across whole Europe, with military doctors, retired doctors and nurses, medical students and most likely volunteers (for food, cleaning, etc.) being called up.


The U.S. will see the same by mid-December, if they are lucky to push it up until mid-December.



AND WE STILL HAVE TO LOCK-DOWN, even if we are able to pull off ALL the resources (material and medical), because December and January will look just like November.



What I have said until now is the reason why I think full lock-downs are inevitable.


There is no way we can face what I have described, for months on a row. The society will be simply overwhelmed, nothing will function properly.

Our current population doesn't have the memory of a pandemic. We don't know HOW bad can it be. We didn't even been educated, or indoctrinated about pandemics.

Our movies about pandemics are under sci-fi or fantasy category. We always considered them as FICTIONAL and unlikely to happen, because we have massive technological advancement...without realizing that the medical field of today, when facing a pandemic, is pretty much THE SAME as the one 100 years ago.


We know a lot about wars. Movies, history and we still have enough elderly that have been in WW2, Korea, Vietnam. We're seen the atrocities in various civil wars. We KNOW that war is bad...but we HAVE NO IDEA (at a societal level) how BAD a pandemic can be.


It is going to get A LOT WORSE before the government will decide to lock-down again, because the governments are afraid of riots. Politicians will consider the lock-down timing based on how the population will perceive the pandemic.


When lock-downs will come, and they will, it will be too late for the medical system, and millions upon millions who will die because lack of medical care.

But when lock-downs will come, they will also come BEFORE the pandemic will be at it's worse, and many people will revolt.


This is why I recently said that Europe will lock-down by mid-November, and martial law by end of November, because martial law will be needed, for what is coming.

But I am afraid that not even martial law will be able to help, and society will break down by the end of this year.



I hope I am wrong.


But if I am not, please prepare, as much as you can, especially mentally, for what is coming.

Thank you for your update DR.

...

Second: there are many "shadow forces" in Italy that are currently taking advantage of protests in major cities.
Turin: high risk of anarchist clashes.
Milan: high risk of Far-Right forces clashes.
Rome: high risk of BlackBlock and Far-right forces clashes.
South Italy: very high risk of clashes started by clans.

...

This is why we are going to need all hands on deck from medical staff, from retired, to military, to students.

Looks like the french are reading this

It will also help with that stupid new situation they got themselves into. This is not the best time for an international conflict with Moslims everywhere.

Why isn't Africa being affected by the virus?

It's 2020.


Stupidity is the last thing we should not consider, since it was prevalent this year.

.


This is the thing with this virus : mild cases can and will evolve into serious cases, and even if the hospitals won't admit mild cases, many of those mild cases will become serious, because they are not treated in a hospital, under medical supervision.


So, even if the hospital pressure will lower the moment mild cases are no longer admitted, this will only last DAYS, before the pressure of hospitalizations will go back up and be bigger then before.

It amuses me how anyone could have thought a curfew was going to do anything for stoping the spread of the virus. Anyone with a basic notion of how this virus spreads knows this was a joke. The measure was so laughable from the beginning that one is left to interpret that they are just doing it as a step to let most of the people see that only a full lock down can do something, but people need to see it for themselves in order to accept the possibility.

OP would you guess mid-december and the US will have Martial law?

Hmm opee, where are the videos of overwhelmed ICUs and trucks full of dead stiffs? Hmmmm?

Why is China completely back open?, (literally 1 month after they were in full panic)

Opee will not answer these questions, and he will ban me for asking.

Why?

It amuses me how anyone could have thought a curfew was going to do anything for stoping the spread of the virus. Anyone with a basic notion of how this virus spreads knows this was a joke. The measure was so laughable from the beginning that one is left to interpret that they are just doing it as a step to let most of the people see that only a full lock down can do something, but people need to see it for themselves in order to accept the possibility.