WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Two new Hong Kong infected end 24 days without local contagion

Two Hong Kong residents have reported test results that show they are infected with the new coronavirus, health officials said today, admitting that the situation ends 24 days without new cases of local contagion.

The former British colony was on track to reach 28 consecutive days without any case of local transmission, a criterion used by epidemiologists to declare an end to a pandemic.

As the Hong Kong health regulator said today, the two infected are a 66-year-old woman and her five-year-old granddaughter, both cases of local transmission, and they are now trying to determine how their grandmother was infected.
[link to observador.pt (secure)]

Lesotho, the only country in Africa without cases so far, announces first infection

Lesotho, the only country in Africa that has so far remained without cases of Covid-19, announced today that it registered the first infection, corresponding to a citizen coming from abroad.

"What the Lesotho National Emergency Command Center [NECC] can confirm is that the case is imported from the Middle East, without signs or symptoms," explained health authorities in the small kingdom, located in the middle of South Africa, through of the social network Twitter.

In a subsequent official statement, the Lesotho Ministry of Health explained that the positive result was confirmed this Tuesday, after 81 tests were carried out on people who had come from South Africa and Saudi Arabia.
[link to observador.pt (secure)]

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More cities in new lockdown in China. Second wave is here?

Last Edited by Italiano Deplorevole on 05/13/2020 10:16 AM

Some parts of Heilongjiang province and many parts of its Capital, Harbin, are also in lockdown. They are not locking entire cities now, just residential areas.

If you want to stay updated of how things are going on China I suggest to follow the Epoch Times News YouTube channel and NTD China in Focus YouTube channel. China never got back to normal, their economy is severely hit and unemployment is soaring. People from Wuhan, and to a less extent from Harbin, are being rejected and sent back from jobs from everywhere else.

Last Edited by Red Hot Chilean Pepe on 05/13/2020 10:25 AM

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Still more news on the second wave in china.

It is possible that this is the start of the second wave, but it is also possible that it is still the first wave.

Also, South Korea :

[link to en.yna.co.kr (secure)]


This is not the second wave, probably. Same with Singapore.But it seems to be the second wave in China.


My reasoning behind this STILL being the first wave in SK and Singapore is because they locked-down HARD and very quick, minimizing the impact of the first wave, but also prolonging it.


Now, by definition, the second wave is when a second round of infections starts, after a natural lull .


But lock-downs are not a natural lull. A lull have to come off naturally, so when another round of infections starts, it can be considered second wave.


But that is specific to seasonal flu viruses, which this one MIGHT be...or not.


On the other hand, if we take lock-downs into consideration, and looking at the curve, this is the SECOND WAVE starting in Asia.

It is a matter of perspective.


Personally, I consider the second wave to start after a downtrend in the infections, be it natural or not (lock-downs).

Not going to got bogged down in semantics : this is the second wave starting.


4-6 weeks after restrictions are eased, the second wave will start in the West as well.


It is inevitable.

Last Edited by Recollector on 05/13/2020 02:54 PM

CIDRAP @CIDRAP
1h
As much pain, suffering, death and economic disruption as we've had, it's been with 5% to 20% of people infected... That's a long ways to get to 60% to 70% to even begin to see herd immunity. Think what we have to go through. @mtosterholm, in USAToday Q&A

Someone posted this

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Apparently one of the new Wuhan clusters is from someone with a re activation of the infection.

I lean more towards to a mild infection that went undetected and later gained strenght, so it would be a very long incubation and asymptomatic infective period, but we already knew that, and perhaps in China this is well known and one of the reasons that no one wants to hire people coming from Wuhan.

Here you go DR.

I can’t link to it. It was on Rooters

Spanish antibody study points to 5% of population affected by coronavirus

Preliminary results from a nationwide coronavirus antibody study show that about 5% of the overall Spanish population has been affected, the Health Ministry said on Wednesday, adding that results varied widely from region to region.

The study, carried out by the Carlos III institute for health and the National Statistics Institute, began on April 27 and aimed to test 90,000 people across 36,000 households for the presence of antibodies generated to fight off the virus.

That would be spot on in the range of OP's calculations.

Yes. It is.

Actually DR is a bit optimistic.

WHO says that the virus could be with us permanently

These are preliminary results.


Spain aims to test 90,000 people on 36,000 households, to estimate the real rate of infection.

This would be the largest antibody study to date, and it will give us some nice info.


However, I expect that the final results to be between 10% and 15% infection rate in Spain, especially since many of those infected do not develop antibodies, or if they do, there to few to be detected, or if they do had antibodies, they decayed in numbers in time, showing negative for testing.


I always said that based on my model, Spain should be between 12% and 15% infection rate, and I really hope to be right, because if Spain had ONLY 5% infection rate...we are truly fucked for the second wave (which will be bigger then first one), looking at how bad was the situation in Spain in the first wave, with only 5% infection rate.

Last Edited by Recollector on 05/13/2020 02:55 PM

Thank you, DR. Excellent comments this week.

Agreed. Thanks DR.

Any idea when we can expect final results? Before June I hope?

I won't speak for the OP, but I understand where you are at.

My strategy is to see what happens by July. This will be a really good indicator where things are going to go (direction wise). I'm in Oregon and the counties are trying to open up this Friday (if the Gov will let them). I suspect about 50% or less of our population will be wary for about 2 weeks, and then they will get lax. I am already seeing people at the grocery store without masks and forget about social distancing. The mind-set is that "it's over".

Also, with summer coming, you haven't seen anything yet with crowds at gathering places (beaches, parks, friends/neighbors at homes) for summer vacation and 4th of July events. So by my reckoning we will know by the end of July how this will go (if not sooner).

If this is true that 5% of the population is infected, then infections / deaths have 16X more to go...

Thanks for the latest updates OP, much appreciation for your hard work and analysis.

OMG can it get worse !!

UPDATE (this is going to be a long one) :


France announced their findings on antibody testing, and it is similar with the U.K. and Spain ones.


My model was built on the infection rate only, and it was proven to be accurate.


After last 4 antibody studies (Czech, U.K., Spain and France), my model is again proven to be correct.
These 4 studies are NOT showing the infection rate, they are showing the IMMUNITY/RESISTANCE rate to the virus.

We all know by now that a big chunk of the infected people will not develop antibodies, or will develop the "wrong" kind (the shorter ones) or will develop antibodies, but not enough to be detected by tests, hence, not enough to grant immunity.

Most likely the asymptomatic infected people do not develop immunity/resistance, because their body is not affected enough (hence, they are asymptomatic) to develop antibodies / enough antibodies / the "right" antibodies.


We know that the asymptomatic make up between 40% and 60% of the infected, which means that if around 5% in U.K., Spain and France developed antibodies, the real percentage of infected is actually between 7% and 8%, which is in the range of my model numbers.

Czech with 0.4% with antibodies actually have 0.7% infected rate, making it the least infected country in Europe (and among the least infected in the world).



Ok, so what is the bad news.

Well, first, China did lied about everything, BUT one thing : when the virus started.

If the findings of all those 4 studies are correct, it is virtually impossible for the virus to have been started before December 2019.

I could stretch this to late November, considering that, as any virus, it took some time to spread to a number that delivered enough serious cases to raise alarms.


Now, I am in no way defending China, as you all know. I hate CCP with all my guts.
But I don't see possible that China paid everyone to come up with studies that show a very low infection rate, which makes December as the month when this virus started, ESPECIALLY since those studies prove that the virus originated in China, and not somewhere else.


If the infection rate is indeed between 7-8%, worldwide, (ofc MOST countries are bellow that, and some above), while the immunity/resistance rate is about 60% of those infected, one of the 3 solutions I considered theoretically possible, is removed.

I am talking about cycling the lock-downs with relaxing, every 13 weeks, for 14 cycles in total, to reach a 70% herd immunity/resistance, because a vaccine is most likely (as I said many times) impossible to develop in the next 2 years, if not actually IMPOSSIBLE to develop at all.


The cycling solution, while theoretical, could have been chosen by the governments, in certain conditions. But those conditions are now gone.

We cannot do it in 13 weeks cycles, because if most countries are under 5% immunity/resistance, and it took about 5 months to get there, the cycles will already be too long to sustain.



This leaves only the other 2 options on the table, but the one that SHOULD have been implemented by now (a longer lock-down, until mid-June) is already dead in the water.


Which leaves us with the WORST solution possible : shortening the lock-downs, expose the population to a higher infection rate > higher immunity/resistance rate, and ultimately go back to cycling, but this time dealing with LESS cycles, even if longer ones.


We need 70% herd immunity/resistance, and if only 5% are there after 4 months, we need to get MORE in a shorter time, so the next lock-down hits much later, giving us a longer breathing time before that.



After seeing how China reacted to this virus, virtually locking people down in their homes, and Western governments going almost Nazi on our asses, I know understand why.

They KNOW that this virus is not going to go away, they KNOW that there is no hope for a vaccine in time, or ever, they KNOW that the second wave is coming in fall...and because they KNOW all that, they also KNOW that when fall is coming, we are NOT going to make it without a HIGH number of people that developed immunity/resistance.


Which begs the question : HOW MANY PEOPLE DO THE GOVERNMENTS THINK THAT SHOULD BE IMMUNE/RESISTANT BEFORE FALL, IN ORDER TO MANAGE THE SECOND WAVE?


Statistically, the answer is simple : we need about 15%. So, 10% more in the next 4 months.


To put it in practice is almost impossible. But before I will explain why is almost impossible, and that it can go VERY WRONG, I want to underscore something that I keep saying since the beginning :


The ECONOMY is done, and there is no way to save it. And when I explain why it is almost impossible to put in practice an additional 10% immunity/resistance rate in the next 4 months, you'll see why the economy is done.


If we want an additional 10% in the next 4 months, the world-wide and nation-wide lock-downs CANNOT be back for the next 4 months.

What they chose to do, and it is already clear, is whack-a-mole lock-downs : a city here, a factory there, nurses homes permanent quarantine, severe travel restrictions, limited gathering, social distancing...basically a combination of the Swedish model with the Chinese model.


I am sure most of you already see the problem here, but if not, I will say it : the risk of NOT getting the additional 10% or going WAY above that is sky high.


This is not a plan, that the governments work on. It is the last hurrah of the humanity. It have to go PERFECTLY WELL, so the second wave hits as planned (in mid/late September-early October 2020), the new round of nation-wide lock-downs hits as planned (in October 2020), it will last as planned (until the Winter ends, so March 2021), and most importantly, it will NOT overload the hospitals (between now and mid-September), while IN THE SAME TIME keep the economy alive.


If what they plan goes SLIGHTLY in the wrong direction (being less or more of 10% of the aimed additional percentage of immune/resistant people), the lock-downs will either start much earlier then September, or we will enter the Winter season (with all the seasonal diseases) with an open-wide society to infection BUT with NOT ENOUGH immune/resistant people, so the hospitals will get absolutely unable to deal will ALL kind of patients (not only Covid-19), leading to deaths from the virus AND from not enough bed/ICU capacity for everyone else.


We NEED a break from lock-downs, and we need a significant one. We NEED it until Fall, when the new nation-wide lock-downs will hit, IF the plan goes perfect.



I personally don't see this plan (postponing the second wave till September, adding 10% more immune/resistant people, and the whack-a-mole lock-downs being so few that the economy will cope with) come to fruition.


Another big problem is that we might get the most of those aimed additional 10% much faster, as early as mid-June, which will absolutely trigger nation-wide lock-downs by July, and this will scrap the planned second wave to hit in September, which will scrap all the other parts of the plan.


But even if they manage to pull it off...a lock-down from October 2020 to March 2021 is going to put an end to an already comatose economy...unless a treatment is found by the end of this year.


I hope that they, the governments, have thought this through, and it will work as planned, buying them enough time to find a viable treatment.


We will see , very soon, if the plan works, because I believe that this is what the governments chose to be the path to deal with the pandemic.


Wishful thinking that this virus will weaken, were demolished by the antibody studies : very low rate of gaining immunity/resistance.


Wishful thinking that we will be able to cope with TWICE as many dead and ICU patients in the next 4 months, as we had in the last months...well, I hope to come true, but I am highly skeptical that we will, especially if they will be again clustered in certain areas.


Imagine Madrid or Lombardy with TWICE their previous numbers.


Imagine YOUR city or country with TWICE the current numbers.

I think many areas will going to get hit really really bad, even if most of the country you live in, while having high numbers, won't be as bad.



There are so many things that can go wrong in the next 4 months, and looking at HOW EAGER everyone is opening back up, paired with latest antibody studies and knowing that Fall and Winter will be really bad, for me at least, it became clear as day that the governments aim to raise the rate of immune/resistant people to around 15% until September.


It is going to be rough as hell, even if the plan works, and the coming winter will be HELL.


But if it goes wrong, which is almost certain (too many things have to go PERFECTLY, and I didn't even added the HUMAN factor in the equation), HELL will be here way before Winter.


We will see, in the next 30 days, if their plan works.


POSTED on MAY 14th, 2020.

Last Edited by Recollector on 05/14/2020 06:53 AM

JM Rieger
@RiegerReport
17h
What Rick Bright plans to say tomorrow:

"If we fail to develop a national coordinated response…I fear the pandemic will get far worse and be prolonged, causing unprecedented illness and fatalities…2020 [could] be the darkest winter in modern history.”

DR-
Given your most recent update (May 14th) do you still expect lockdowns to occur in June or do you think they will push through until September/October?

Too many factors to consider.


I hope that the governments know what they do, and push the lock-downs to October.


But there is a high possibility, especially if most people won't act accordingly (and they won't, mainly because they don't know what the governments are planning...because the governments don't TELL what they are planning) that the lock-downs will come much earlier.


This was and is the biggest issue at hand : governments DO NOT TELL the truth, and most people get what it was always portrayed by the media : things are getting better.


Hence, most people will act accordingly : will stop wearing masks very soon after relaxing, will drop social distancing (they already did, everywhere), and this will increase the infection rate to figures that are much higher then those that are needed, for herd immunity, and much faster then planned.


This is an entirely separate topic (the human factor) and I rather not get into it too deeply.


I will just limit myself to say what I always said : most people are stupid, and it is virtually impossible to control the behavior of the masses in a pandemic situation, without lock-downs.


I hope that ENOUGH people realize what we are dealing with, and the relaxing measures are just a breath of air before next lock-downs, and not permanent.


Sadly, I think that most will get the relaxing as the "it's all over" moment in time, and the control of infection rate will be lost, prompting governments to start the next lock-downs much earlier then planned.

Last Edited by Recollector on 05/14/2020 07:21 AM

Thank you.
Your thoughts seem reasonable given what I’m seeing here locally. Very surreal to know we are in a pandemic time yet everyone acts entirely the opposite.

thanks for the update DR. I believe you are correct. I also, like you, think many are no longer if ever taking this serious. I think by mid June or late June we will see increase cases in hospital not just increase positives. I think by end of July we will know how fooked we are especially going into the "flu season".

I am hearing lots of people say this winter is going to be hell on Earth. Sure is going to test a lot of folk.