2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

Guess I have to bring the Flux Capacitor back in.. I was just getting nice and warmed up.

According to Richard Hogue, their instruments showed that all HAARP stations were tuned to 2 Hz for a period from 0:00 on the 20th through noon 12:00 on the 21st, a period of 36 hours.

This was done to prevent the planet from tilting during the passage through the galactic bull's eye. As of the night of the 21st, they were considering it a successful operation. Maybe all those missing trillions were put to good use after all.
I don't think HAARP did it all alone. I would suspect that our et friends may have given aid to help.

That this might have some side effects, such as on weather systems temporarily would be expected.

Merry Christmas

Wow, noticed something similar a week or two ago - maybe the start of a pole flip process? Or is the suns flip fast or instantly?

So, if this mini ice age is a go, how far south will the impact be as far as safe zones? I'm not talking about snow, I'm talking about uninhabital areas.

The sun's poles have flipped. We are now entering solar minimum. But this thread has nothing to do with the sun. I'm just trying to help out with questions.

so why did NASA say high solar activity will happen between Jan to Mar of 2013? according to them the solar max is mere late but will still come in the next few months

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

Sure is a little different looking as far as the by and bz a that time.

Avoiding a pole shift maintains the current unsustainable way of life and might have bought more time for the PTB to carry on their age old control system over the populace. The unaware masses remain asleep thinking all is well and totally disregarding the invisible prison cells around them and closing in.

Do you realise HAARP floods this planet with Extra Low Frequency (ELF)? Do you know the implications of this?

It is indeed amazing to see that HAARP was spiked between the 20th and 21st but no activity is currently recorded on it now.

There may have been something to what the Mayans said all along. Hmmmm!

Point taken....however, how much does it matter if we are headed towards another ice age.

I'm still debating this. Let me find the chart to show you. Might take a while.

Here. The chart on the left shows the poles flipping. Now it isn't instant so we still will get nice solar activity, but it will wind down.

[link to www.leif.org]

The pole shift or magnetic reversal is what leads to the ice age. If HAARP was activated, as recorded, to interfere with this process, perhaps its only succeeded to either slow it down to buy some time or has now caused unpredictable results with what it did.

So yeah, we could still be heading for the ice age but I was only commenting on what HAARP might have done on the 20th - 21st and the long term implications on the masses still asleep if it had succeeded. If an ice age is still coming, then perhaps their efforts was just good enough to buy some more time.

Last Edited by Ohwell on 12/24/2012 12:20 AM

I remember that one. Visited St. Louis just as it was warming up to -30, and the Mississippi was frozen.

Brrr.

Weather foresasts are what they are... but this time i'm following this for some time in this portuguese meteo blog. This guy is very good, and he talk first about this polar freeze in China, Asia... then it happen and Ryan Maue forecast it too. Yesterday i found this US blog too... so many people saying the same thing...

[link to metofficenews.wordpress.com]

Stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) is a breakdown event of the winter polar vortex associated with a sudden rise of temperature by several tens K in a few days in the polar stratosphere. It is basically a nonlinear dynamical event in planetary scale, while it is recognized as an event that has association with smaller spatial-scale gravity waves, and longer time-scale intraseasonal and interannual variations or climate change of the polar vortex. It is also interacted with radiative and chemical processes in the stratosphere. Nowadays its remote influence and association with variations in some components of Earth's climate system are investigated widely, including the troposphere, the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, the oceans, the hydrosphere, and the cryosphere.

It is nearly 60 years since the finding of stratospheric sudden warming by Richard Scherhag (1952), nearly 40 years since the pioneering theory by Taroh Matsuno (1971), and nearly 30 years since the publication of some well known articles on SSWs in the special issue of the Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan on the occasion of the centennial anniversary of the Society. In this workshop, we invite several speakers from the first generation of SSW research to promote intensive discussions with the second and third generations to inform the future. We will repeat Michael McIntyre's (1982) question "How well do we understand the dynamics of stratospheric warmings?", and expand the question to their remote influence in the climate system and roles in weather and climate variations.
[link to www-mete.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp]

[link to www.boards.ie] a forum about this!!!

Capillatus

Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011

Location: Slovenia, Central Europe (1050m-3445ft ASL)

Posts: 33

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Hello again.

Nice to see the topic up and running already.
First, I would like to take this opportunity, to say a big THANK YOU, to all who contributed to a very educational topic in the last season, especially Mr. Redsunset and Mr. pistolpetes11. Looking forward to some good debates this season.

Nothing much on the horizon for now, but I am optimistic, that this year we could see a bit more intense "SSW" action than in the 11/12 season. Mainly because of the overall setup, which looks a bit different than last year.

Ok. First I am going to make the reanalysis of the 500mb pattern composite from October 1. to November 10., just to show how we stand against last year.

2011


2012


I don't think any comment is needed, because its clearly obvious that this year the overall pattern looks almost reversed, when compared to last year. What I like the most, is the strong Aleutian blocking and the warm AMO ridging.


Now I think we all know there are also significant changes in the ocean oscillations compared to last year.

2011


2012


Most obvious are the "neutral warm" ENSO regions, with ENSO4 a bit more intense than the rest. Also worth pointing out is the well defined warm AMO area, to support Atlantic ridging and hopefully some heat fluxes. And the "warm cored" cold PDO area (as funny as it may sound).

The AO and NAO have been responsive to all that. AO has gone up lately and you probably all know why, so i wont waste your time with that.


Last but not least, QBO.

2011


2012


As usual, QBO propagated downward. Lost a bit of its intensity, but still in the game, at least in my eyes.

I will end with my opinion/idea (not really a forecast) on how I see Polar Vortex activity in the near future.

As mentioned above, Polar Vortex (at least the stratospheric part) is going to intensify a bit. What I find interesting, is the activity in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere. Feel free to correct me, if I am wrong in any segment.

The main trough, associated with the PV center, is going to move from N America, over Greenland into Atlantic. This corresponds with my December 500mb anomaly analog, I posted on some local forums (in our country) as a part of my statistical "model" winter outlook (Maybe i will also post the results on this forum, somewhere down the line).

Now what I find interesting, is what is going on behind the PV center. The Aleutian and Scandinavian ridge are really going on a offensive towards the north pole, rising the geopotential heights. Polar vortex gets really "oval" shaped from all the offensive from the side, and getting the "split up" features in mid and upper troposphere.

AO responding.

There are still no real signs of impending SSW just yet, but I do believe they will (and should) start to appear as we move into December. But it sure is interesting to see the PV taking a bit of a punch, which will be interesting to see how it evolves down the line.

I hope I am not breaking any rules with posting so many images, or making such a long post. I just thought it would be a nice "intro post" on this whole stratospheric matter.

Best regards,

Andrew.
[link to www.boards.ie]

Doom off in the netherlands,

it is unusual warm here with temperatures close to 15 degrees celsius, no arctic freeze but reggae style
winter :-)

cool runnings man!!

that's good but nothing to do with possible polar vortex collapse...

22-12-2012, 15:32
Capillatus
Join Date: Dec 2011

Location: Slovenia, Central Europe (1050m-3445ft ASL)

Posts: 33
While models always seem to show snow scenarios and then removing them or just keeping them in the future forever, the stratosphere is a different story. The general idea with the warming and the polar vortex disposition remains more all less the same, with minimal "away moving".

The latest runs are basically already carving out the "R.I.P Polar Vortex" tombstone, or at least for its influence, hinting at a possible "official" SSW event around January 10th.
ECMWF is also picking up the warming in the mid and upper strat. and will possibly continue to do so as the "main events" move closer to the 240h time frame. And with the wave1 picking up the pace again throughout the whole 0-10 day timeframe, the vortex already began its displacement mode.

The forecasted sounding for the point where EC has Tmax at 10mb at 192h. You can see the the warm air intrusion fairly good in the mid and more the upper strat.

With the High strengthening and putting more pressure on the Polar Vortex, along with the warm air intrusion, the wind forecasted beyond 300h, shows a zonal reversal over the pole.

So basically, quite a clash forming above our heads.
It is too far away to start speculating on possible effects on the troposphere and the winter in Europe.

[link to www.boards.ie]

22-12-2012, 19:27
Capillatus
Location: Slovenia, Central Europe (1050m-3445ft ASL)

Well, given the composite by Reichler, the "average" delay would be around 10-15 days from upper strat. down to the upper and mid troposphere. This is an average value, so I think there could be a 5 day deviation from this mean.

About the warming, I would say that its not really off the scale. Its in the "normal" SSW values.

I was playing around with the reanalysis tools and I made an analog of January 500mb anomaly with conditions: Dec/Jan 30mb CW (Canadian Warming) in an east QBO and a Polar vortex disposition in December. Basically something similar that we are going to go through now.

Its hard to say what exactly is going to happen in the troposphere if the warming comes to fruition with the current forecasted intensity and dynamics. We have to wait first for the charts that are now in the 300h+ range, to come under 192h, so we determine the exact type of the possible SSW and to start looking in the past for similar events, besides looking at the model feedback when it tries to pick up the downwelling into the troposphere. So lets give it some time first to see how it shapes up.

[link to www.boards.ie]

Forecast in Iceland shows that we might break the historical RECORD for lowest temperature ever recorded, next 27th December, near Myvatn

[link to www.mbl.is]

The computer models forecast a low temperature between -34ºC to -45ºC, still uncertain and difficult to predict exactly. But the absolute Icelandic record stands at -38ºC from 1918.
temperature in Reykjavik for 1938 is still falling? Recently it dropped by almost 1.8°C

[link to notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com]

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

How's this for cold: -73F at Oymyakon, Russia, earlier this morning

thanks! I understand.

Atmospheric Analysis and Forecast - December 22, 2012
By Andrew at 10:22 PM
Might as well give you all an update on my thinking for the next few weeks on a more informal basis than a Long Range Lookout and the like.

In the near future, I'm seeing the polar vortex get exiled into western Eurasia, a move that will then provoke high pressure to build in the Arctic. Such a situation would most certainly send the stratosphere into quite a phase of turbulence as the Pacific jet stream is tightened. Should the polar vortex try and shift into the North Pacific as long range forecasts indicate, the emergence of a Rex Block is not all that far fetched.

Considering the formation of a Rex Block in the future, the prospects for cold and snow to reach the US would only increase. An already troubled stratosphere, troubled polar vortex and Rex Block would combine to bring the Central and East US a high dosage of cold to the region. The southern storm track would amplify in response to the Rex Block, and the lack of a polar vortex in its domain means higher chances for a negative NAO. All in all, good stuff for the Northeast.

I wish to express that this is indeed a changing pattern, and the models are never good with such a situation. However, I have high confidence that the stratosphere will enter this turbulent phase, meaning the polar vortex is no longer going to be so prone to sticking in its spot. Further displacement of the vortex at different levels in the stratosphere would bring the vortex to its knees. Copious amounts of cold air would be released, and all the sudden winter coats are flying off the shelves in America.

We are seeing our prolonged cold spell in Eurasia leave, in direct response to the departure of warmer stratospheric values over the region. As this warmer stratospheric air departs, temperatures will moderate in those regions. Now, we see the long range having the stratosphere warmth moving into Canada. That does mean that potential for significant cold, as seen in Eurasia, would theoretically be possible. The likelihood of such a cold air mass propagating down to the lower latitudes would be pretty decent, but you're going to want to watch the West Coast for a potential Rex Block. Such a blocking pattern would no doubt pave the way for significant cold to break through into the Central and East US.
Overall, a definite improvement is incoming, regardless of the Rex Block. I can see the stratosphere will cooperate with what I have described above, and if warm air continues to propagate to the stratosphere for more and more time, the odds increase of the polar vortex succumbing to its wounds. That would mean the entire Arctic would be unleashed across the lower latitudes, but that's a whole other post for a whole other time. [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

What the fuck is this vortex shit?

What vortex?

Someone explain to me please?? I dont understand this