Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?

The size is irrelevant, but you can see the absolute magnitude figure (H) in the orbital elements that I calculated for it. Currently the absolute magnitude calculated is about 24.1 according to the minor planet center, about the same from NASA.
Diameter = 1329/Sqrt(albedo) * 10^(-.2*H)
All diameter estimates are based on an assumption of the asteroid's albedo. This generally ranges from about .05 to .25. If we go with an average of about .15, then the asteroid's diameter is about 51 meters. If we assume it's a very dark asteroid, about as dark as fresh asphalt with an albedo of 0.05, then the asteroid is potentially about 89 meters wide. We'll have a much firmer determination of the size from radar observations that will start on the 16th. Generally you can expect it to be less than 100 meters wide, nominally about 51 meters. Spaceweather may be weighing the various photometric measurements in some way that yields a brighter absolute magnitude however.

I had another one of my infamous "There's a 1000ft. tsunami coming!" dreams AGAINNN lastnight.

This time I was in a boat (why the fuck) and the classic flipping over of the boat started happening. Breaking my body on the ceiling, on the floor, water pouring in.

Anybody wanna go dreaming with me sometime? It's a fucking blast.

OK, Dr, You still hope that it won't hit the earth after all that calculations.....

Of course it is possible. Think about it, well.

No, I know it won't. I don't "hope" it won't. That's for you to do since you haven't done the math.

oh good God, is that a genuine offer?

i'm THERE!!!

I dreamed I met a pterodactyl last night...weird

That is what happened after I ate some bad food the other day. Good times.

Dr, you'll be hero, but you don't know anything at the moment.

Negated by increased momentum.

if they did they wouldn't tell us..

Evidently I know a lot more than you at the moment. I've done the calculations for myself. It will not hit. The uncertainty region of the asteroid's position does not even come close to overlapping earth. There is no possibility of impact.

You don't need "they" to tell you, you can do the calculations for yourself and confirm it.

no every mass fall at the same speed, it will change it's speed and trajectory after passing earth, but maybe not that much

It is moving laterally, not falling.. speed times mass=momentum or force of impact..the earth falls out from under it due to the curvature of the planet.

Last Edited by Waterbug on 02/12/2013 03:04 PM

If we don't know the size, we don't know the mass and we don't know the composition. Therefore we can only guess at it's trajectory once it interacts with our Earth-Moon system...

I would hope the margin of error includes possible extremes and are not anchored in a guessed median.

Maybe IRAN will save us with it's new Space Plane?

However there is something I forgot to ask about. Does this bring up the chances of it hitting satellites? It is bigger then they at first thought?? So wouldn't that make it easier for it to hit the satellites or space junk?

No, its mass and composition are irrelevant to its trajectory. Its mass is negligible relative to earth, and it will experience the same amount of acceleration from earth's gravity regardless of how much mass it has.

I just got chills reading about your dream.

*shivers*

I should have a hell of a view.... fridaynight

I'm starting the nightshift and I'm 5 stories high

Hey, Astro: My cat just threw up a hairball. Any chance there's a correlation between that and the possibility of Asteroid 2012 DA14 hitting the Earth?

It's Friday in the NL already? You are high!

Dr. Astro, how can you possibly say that the mass of object B doesn't matter? I'm quite sure it does, it's simple physics.

Okay, FWIW, I have a problem with the so called experts here.

I have a close family member who is a retired engineer (Redstone). He would never be so bold as to make 100% predictions or say things like "math never lies". Anytime we have talked about events over the years he would always put his .02 in but throw out a caveat about unexpected variables.

Anytime you make a prediction based on a mathematical model, you cannot completely predict the variable that nature plays. If you could, then we would have 100% forecasts every time.

So, I'm a little leery when someone says something will "never" happen as opposed to saying something is "unlikely" to happen.

it will come and go just like the elenin nonsense, fuck all happened

the really trouble in path equations in my opinion can just come from unpredicted random variables... for example what happen if the sun will hit the asteroid with a huge flare while approaching ?

Astro, please post your mathematical equations that determine your result.

Oh, I also noticed a "Dr." in front of your name, do you have a PhD, if so, which field, published articles, etc.?