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Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15581643
South Africa
02/25/2013 01:02 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'm working on my own analysis of the comet's orbit and the potential risk right now, but in the meantime since word is starting to get around about this I wanted to go ahead and make the thread to put this out there. Hat tip to Dr. Ian Musgrave:
[link to astroblogger.blogspot.com]
Now, it's important to point out that we don't know the orbit well enough yet to know if it will hit or not. It could make a very close pass to Mars, or it could collide. We just don't know yet. I'm currently running my own analysis to try to determine the level of risk. If it hits though (which would be on October 19th, 2014), the impact will be tremendous. This comet is on a retrograde orbit, traveling the opposite direction of the planets, so a head-on collision would be in excess of 50 km/sec. That's very, very high. Minimum distance of the approach is currently sitting at 0 on JPL's site, maximum distance is at 0.00794 AU.
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
It would be a very, very bad day to be a martian if this thing hits.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro



Try these two links.
Anonymous Coward
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Brazil
02/25/2013 01:06 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'm working on my own analysis of the comet's orbit and the potential risk right now, but in the meantime since word is starting to get around about this I wanted to go ahead and make the thread to put this out there. Hat tip to Dr. Ian Musgrave:
[link to astroblogger.blogspot.com]
Now, it's important to point out that we don't know the orbit well enough yet to know if it will hit or not. It could make a very close pass to Mars, or it could collide. We just don't know yet. I'm currently running my own analysis to try to determine the level of risk. If it hits though (which would be on October 19th, 2014), the impact will be tremendous. This comet is on a retrograde orbit, traveling the opposite direction of the planets, so a head-on collision would be in excess of 50 km/sec. That's very, very high. Minimum distance of the approach is currently sitting at 0 on JPL's site, maximum distance is at 0.00794 AU.
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
It would be a very, very bad day to be a martian if this thing hits.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro



Try these two links.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15581643




those two are working...

but that's a blog, and NASA's website...

the two news published are down...
Anonymous Coward
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United States
02/25/2013 01:09 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
You know what would be really cool?

If a piece of Mars more than 300 meters wide was launched into space by this collision, and landed here on Earth, in a populated area!


banana2
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30317398


Yeah! Like, Brazil! During Carnival!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15581643
South Africa
02/25/2013 01:14 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'm working on my own analysis of the comet's orbit and the potential risk right now, but in the meantime since word is starting to get around about this I wanted to go ahead and make the thread to put this out there. Hat tip to Dr. Ian Musgrave:
[link to astroblogger.blogspot.com]
Now, it's important to point out that we don't know the orbit well enough yet to know if it will hit or not. It could make a very close pass to Mars, or it could collide. We just don't know yet. I'm currently running my own analysis to try to determine the level of risk. If it hits though (which would be on October 19th, 2014), the impact will be tremendous. This comet is on a retrograde orbit, traveling the opposite direction of the planets, so a head-on collision would be in excess of 50 km/sec. That's very, very high. Minimum distance of the approach is currently sitting at 0 on JPL's site, maximum distance is at 0.00794 AU.
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
It would be a very, very bad day to be a martian if this thing hits.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro



Try these two links.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15581643




those two are working...

but that's a blog, and NASA's website...

the two news published are down...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30317398




Yes, very troubling. With news like this, they usually pull all possible "mainstream" news until the final tally for the comet's orbit is in.
Anonymous Coward
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Brazil
02/25/2013 01:18 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
You know what would be really cool?

If a piece of Mars more than 300 meters wide was launched into space by this collision, and landed here on Earth, in a populated area!


banana2
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30317398


Yeah! Like, Brazil! During Carnival!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1857157




Hmmmm... NO!!


churchlady
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 01:18 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Hey, CHECK THIS OUT:




Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) – a possible collision with Mars

PostDateIcon February 25th, 2013 | PostAuthorIcon Author: Leonid Elenin

L. Elenin

There is a chance that the comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring), discovered in the beginning of 2013, might collide with Mars. At the moment, based on the observation arc of 74 days, the nominal close approach distance between the red planet and the comet might be as little as 0.00073 AU, that is approximately 109,200 km! Distance to Mars’ natural satellite Deimos will be smaller by 6000 km, making it 103,000 km. On the 19th October 2014, the comet might reach apparent magnitude of -8…-8.5, as seen from Mars! Perhaps it will be possible to accuire high-resolution images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s....

More at link --> source: [link to spaceobs.org]





NOT THIS GUY AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!

gasp

Last Edited by Chip on 02/25/2013 04:35 PM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 30317398
Brazil
02/25/2013 01:22 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Not Leonid Elenin AGAIN!!



oh shit
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35145435
Croatia
02/25/2013 01:28 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Thanks Astro for keeping us updated!
 Quoting: imjustsayin


yeah, it's so important to know and cancel the trip to mars

kissup
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35142686


lol

Businessman Dennis Tito Financing Manned Mission to Mars


Is Millionaire Space Tourist Planning Trip to Mars?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31869061


in today's world full of shit, no money, broken economies, nasa had to abandon their most successful shuttle ships, they can's even service iss anymore or send their asstronuts out there,...etc..
here comes out of nowhere super-multi-rich trizzilions billionaire asshole who will make even more money collecting it from naive brainwashed sheep who will invest in never-happening event, yeah sure

it was few years ago, even croatian rich bastard gave to englishman a load of money to go to trip around the earth
but he and all other 'passangers' have never seen the ship not the orbit lmao

all this mumbo-jumbo is just to deceive naive sheep like we are going to mars, into space - the final frontier

hahahahaha in da movies perhaps
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 865798
United States
02/25/2013 03:33 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'm working on my own analysis of the comet's orbit and the potential risk right now, but in the meantime since word is starting to get around about this I wanted to go ahead and make the thread to put this out there. Hat tip to Dr. Ian Musgrave:
[link to astroblogger.blogspot.com]
Now, it's important to point out that we don't know the orbit well enough yet to know if it will hit or not. It could make a very close pass to Mars, or it could collide. We just don't know yet. I'm currently running my own analysis to try to determine the level of risk. If it hits though (which would be on October 19th, 2014), the impact will be tremendous. This comet is on a retrograde orbit, traveling the opposite direction of the planets, so a head-on collision would be in excess of 50 km/sec. That's very, very high. Minimum distance of the approach is currently sitting at 0 on JPL's site, maximum distance is at 0.00794 AU.
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
It would be a very, very bad day to be a martian if this thing hits.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Bump to follow. Thanks Astro
pstrusi

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02/25/2013 03:52 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Hi Dr. Astro

I'd like to know what possible object could be this in the following video according to your knowledge. It's a long video but very quickly you can look several pictures and videos from the Volcan Turrialba, which makes me wondering about it.

I've been trying to do my little research a couple astronomical software but it doesn't seem any known planet or moon.

Here the video:

[link to www.youtube.com]


Thanks
 Quoting: pstrusi


Lens flare.
[link to i319.photobucket.com]
It can be seen appearing in front of clouds, it forms a straight line, and it always points back towards the sun.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Thanks Astro. As long nobody can go over there, at the top of the Volcan and see it directly without any camera, this might be always a kind of lens flare.
pstrusi
Anubis
§†€ªmþüñk

User ID: 4949345
Canada
02/25/2013 04:12 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
pravda is back up

[link to english.pravda.ru]

According to scientists, a catastrophe of global scale may occur on Mars. The trajectory of comet C/2013 A1, which Australian astronomers discovered in early 2013, will supposedly intersect with Mars. If it happens, the impact will produce an explosion, the power of which will be equivalent to 20 billion megatons of TNT.

500km crater

20 billion megatons? isnt that 20 billion million tons?

20 million gigatons?

20 thousand teratons?

20 petatons?

is there even such a thing as a petaton of TNT ?

Last Edited by Anubis on 02/25/2013 04:13 PM
Civil 3D

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02/25/2013 04:14 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Thanks for the thread Dr Astro. I have been following James M. McCanney's web page regarding this comet and others. He does mention this comet and a close encounter with Mars, not so much a collision. What interests me and I havn't seen you mention in this thread, is a close encounter with Mars could cause terraforming of the martian surface. This albeit with the understanding of his electric comet thoeries, not the "Drity Snowball" comet theories as he suggests is stated an supported by N A S A and mainstream science. He suggests we will see this interaction from earth and will be impressive and a large enough event to see in the daytime skys, brighter than a full moon. The resulting discharge could see the comet tail across the whole sky. WOW. McCanney suggests that terrafroming or interactions between electric comets and planetary objects is in fact the cause of geographic formations, presence or lack of water and weather effects. He suggested in his last radio show that the earth is now coming out of an ice age and warming which in fact could have been caused by a comet.

A poster a few pages back shows a unexplained scar on Mars, electric comet/mars terafroming interaction possibly? Do you believe in the elctric comet theory and the ramifications of such as opossed to the mainstream comet dirty snowball. He states that the apparant old water courses on Mars, with the now missing water, could have been caused by a passing comet. Hard to discount in my mind as if you listen to McCanney and his explanation as to what makes a comet glow, is in fact a plasma discharge from the comet to a near planetary body, not discharges of ice and light relfection.
Dr. Astro (OP)
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02/25/2013 05:51 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
He suggests we will see this interaction from earth and will be impressive and a large enough event to see in the daytime skys, brighter than a full moon.
 Quoting: Civil 3D


He's talking about comet ISON, not this comet. ISON will pass close to Mars and may become brighter than the moon when it gets close to the sun, but that has nothing to do with it being "electric."
astrobanner2
Dr. Astro (OP)
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02/25/2013 05:53 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
NOT THIS GUY AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30317398

Why not? He's an active amateur astronomer.
astrobanner2
Anonymous Coward
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United States
02/25/2013 05:56 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
56km per second is 201,000km per hour. Folks, that'll be truly epic.
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 06:45 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bsflagbsflag
MuzzleBreak

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02/25/2013 06:48 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
So this is C2013A1. How close will C2012s1 ISON get to Mars this October? Looks close on jpl diagrams.
In his book, "Between Two Ages," Brzezinski wrote: "The technetronic era involves the gradual appearance of a more controlled society. Such a society would be dominated by an elite, unrestrained by traditional values."

MuzzleBreak
Requiemdream (Ghost)

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02/25/2013 07:25 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
What happened to this thread?? This is huge!
Perpetually dumbfounded.

“I have learned now that while those who speak about one's miseries usually hurt, those who keep silence hurt more." C.S. Lewis

“Sticks and stones may break your bones but words can break hearts.”
Tim Minchin
Anonymous Coward
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South Africa
02/25/2013 08:09 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Pin until next year!



5a
Major Jim

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02/25/2013 09:53 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Bump
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 10:09 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 10:14 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Bumpity Bump bump

Unfortunately for Mars, the calculations have been getting more and more favourable for impact since observation started.

In early February the nominal close approach was 0.006 AU. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.ca]

As of today, the nominal close approach according to NASA is 0.0007 AU. [link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

From Discovery News - this thing is legit. [link to news.discovery.com]

This impact would rival those that occurred at the dawn of the solar system. Plug the calculations into [link to janus.astro.umd.edu] and the results are astounding:

"Energy Released: 19 billion MT (MegaTons of TNT) (Energy needed to Boil Earth's Oceans: 2000 billion MT)
QUAKE!! Magnitude 12.5 (largest recorded Earthquake: 9.5) Crater Diameter: 659.0 km Crater Depth: 4.1 km
Collisions this energetic occurred only early in the Solar System's history."

Even Leonid Elenin chimed in. [link to spaceobs.org]

"Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter of over 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep. Such an event would overshadow even the famous bombardment of Jupiter by the disintegrated comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 in July 1994, which by some estimates was originally 15 km in diameter."
Frater

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02/25/2013 10:15 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Damn!

Poor Martianz...

I remember when the one hit Jupiter, I had the impression is what a horrible thing.

Last Edited by Frater on 02/25/2013 10:16 PM
LVX!
RayGun

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02/25/2013 10:20 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
400 football field bump
Dr. Astro (OP)
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02/25/2013 10:23 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Bumpity Bump bump

Unfortunately for Mars, the calculations have been getting more and more favourable for impact since observation started.

In early February the nominal close approach was 0.006 AU. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.ca]

As of today, the nominal close approach according to NASA is 0.0007 AU. [link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

From Discovery News - this thing is legit. [link to news.discovery.com]

This impact would rival those that occurred at the dawn of the solar system. Plug the calculations into [link to janus.astro.umd.edu] and the results are astounding:

"Energy Released: 19 billion MT (MegaTons of TNT) (Energy needed to Boil Earth's Oceans: 2000 billion MT)
QUAKE!! Magnitude 12.5 (largest recorded Earthquake: 9.5) Crater Diameter: 659.0 km Crater Depth: 4.1 km
Collisions this energetic occurred only early in the Solar System's history."

Even Leonid Elenin chimed in. [link to spaceobs.org]

"Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter of over 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep. Such an event would overshadow even the famous bombardment of Jupiter by the disintegrated comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 in July 1994, which by some estimates was originally 15 km in diameter."
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837


Great info, thanks! Especially for that Discovery News article. For those who say I'm just being a fear monger... This is a real possibility. It's unlikely, but it IS possible.
astrobanner2
ExoPoliChick

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02/25/2013 10:41 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Hey, CHECK THIS OUT:




Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) – a possible collision with Mars

PostDateIcon February 25th, 2013 | PostAuthorIcon Author: Leonid Elenin

L. Elenin

There is a chance that the comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring), discovered in the beginning of 2013, might collide with Mars. At the moment, based on the observation arc of 74 days, the nominal close approach distance between the red planet and the comet might be as little as 0.00073 AU, that is approximately 109,200 km! Distance to Mars’ natural satellite Deimos will be smaller by 6000 km, making it 103,000 km. On the 19th October 2014, the comet might reach apparent magnitude of -8…-8.5, as seen from Mars! Perhaps it will be possible to accuire high-resolution images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s....

More at link --> source: [link to spaceobs.org]





NOT THIS GUY AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!

gasp
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30317398


He never predicted doom with his comet, he just happened to find it. He is the real deal, astronomer from Russia. I know him.
Traveler of both time and space ~~~~


Nobody told me there'd be days like these....Strange days indeed!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"It is our innate solidarity - not some despotism of the sky - that is our source of morality and sense of decency."
~ Hitchens

"The essence of the independent mind is not in what it thinks, but how it thinks."
~ Hitchens

"A mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam."
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I LOVE science and I LOVE space but I am hugely skeptical and don't trust a word NASA says.
my 2 cents

User ID: 26646007
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02/25/2013 10:44 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
If it misses Mars what are the chances it could hit Earth on one of its next orbits?
Thanks for the interesting thread!
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Those who beat their swords into plowshares usually end up plowing for those who kept their swords. -Benjamin Franklin
Anonymous Coward
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South Africa
02/25/2013 10:46 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
This comet was found by an Australian. The Russian guy found Elenin, I think.
Dr. Astro (OP)
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02/25/2013 10:47 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
If it misses Mars what are the chances it could hit Earth on one of its next orbits?
Thanks for the interesting thread!
 Quoting: my 2 cents


Well it's a long period comet, so it's only got one shot at this in our lifetimes and this is the only close approach it makes to a planet on this go-around.
astrobanner2
Anonymous Coward
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South Africa
02/25/2013 10:49 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
If it misses Mars what are the chances it could hit Earth on one of its next orbits?
Thanks for the interesting thread!
 Quoting: my 2 cents



holding out hope that it is a long term comet - hopefully it'll only come back in a few million years or so..


ahhh

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